Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Friday, closing out a dynamically positive week, fueled by the bullish Cattle inventory report.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.17 higher ($4.57 higher toward the back to $6.47 higher in spot Mar). The CME Feeder Cattle Index closed $1.51 higher week to week on Thursday at $160.17/cwt.

During the same period, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.28 higher and open interest grew by about 15,000 contracts.

On Friday, however, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 28¢ lower, except for an average of 32¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 27¢ higher, except for 15¢ lower in near Jun and unchanged in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to mostly inactive on very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

For the week, Live sales were $3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $140, $3-$4 higher in Kansas at $139-$140, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $138-$140 and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $140. Dressed trade was $4 higher at $222.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 639,000 head was 4,000 head fewer than the previous week and 13,000 head fewer than the same week last year. So far this year, estimated total cattle slaughter of 3.16 million head is 185,000 head fewer (-5.5%) than the same time last year.

Corn futures closed mostly 5¢ higher through Jly ’23 and then 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ higher in the front four contracts and then 3¢ to 6¢ higher through Aug. ’23, followed by mostly 1¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 11.6¢ lower in old-crop contracts and Soybean futures closed an average of 68.8¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday, although tech stocks, such as Amazon, blossomed on strong quarterly earnings.

The monthly Employment Situation Summary also revealed stronger results than expected.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 467,000 in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was little changed at 4.0%.

Average hourly earnings in January for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 23¢ to $31.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.7%. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 21 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 219 points.

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La Niña remains firmly in control of the ocean-atmosphere system, and that is unlikely to change this spring, said meteorologist Matt Makens, during the CattleFax Outlook Seminar in Houston last week.

Barring any change to the La Niña outlook or sudden warming in the Gulf of Alaska, Makens explained that likely means dryness continues across the Southwest and South with warm temperatures. The Northern Plains and Corn Belt are expected to have wetness farther east this spring and drier conditions for this summer, with temperatures closer to normal versus last year.

With that weather outlook in mind, CattleFax expects planted corn acres this coming season to be 91.8 million, with a trend-line yield of 180 bu./acre. CattleFax expects soybean acres to remain near steady at 87.2 million acres.

“Exceptional demand from China is leading U.S. corn exports to new records and expanded interest could easily push exports higher in 2022,” according to Mike Murphy, CattleFax vice president of research and risk management services.

Murphy noted that weather is likely to continue influencing hay prices with much of the Central Plains and the West battling some level of dryness or drought. He explains, on-farm hay stocks Dec. 1 were 6% less year over year at 79 million tons.

“Expect current-year hay prices to average near $186/ton, $10 higher than 2021 prices due to tighter supplies and stronger demand,” Murphy said.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

Live sales in the Texas Panhandle were $3 higher at $140 and $3-$4 higher in Kansas at $139-$140. Earlier in the week, live trade was $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $138-$140 and in the western Corn Belt at $140. Dressed trade was $4 higher at $222.

Cattle futures closed mixed to a touch lower Thursday on likely profit taking from the recent run-up.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 21¢ lower (5¢ to 55¢).

Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 16¢ lower to an average of 33¢ higher. 

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.69 lower Thursday afternoon at $281.46/cwt. Select was $3.10 lower at $276.47.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 3¢ higher.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Tech stocks sent major U.S. financial indices on downward plunge Thursday. Meta stock, the parent company of Facebook fell 26% on missed fourth-quarter earnings.

Spot Crude oil futures (WTI-CME) added pressure as it rose to more than $90 for the first time since 2014 amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 518 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 112 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 539 points.

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Wholesale beef demand will likely slow in the coming year, but cutout value should hold steady near an average of $280/cwt., says Kevin Good, CattleFax vice president of industry relations and analysis.

During the CattleFax Outlook Seminar in Houston this week, Good explained global protein demand continues to rise, and U.S. beef exports are expected to grow by 5% this year to 3.7 billion lbs., supported in part by tightening global protein supplies.

Likewise, CattleFax sees continued domestic consumer beef demand strength this year.

Good explains inflation is also driving beef prices to a higher trading range. The USDA All-Fresh Beef Retail Price should average near $7.15/lb. this year, ultimately resulting in more margin in the system.

While U.S. median household income increased last year, historically high inflation is affecting low-to-middle income Americans the most, Good says. 

Stronger cash prices, the early-week, bullish Cattle report, the performance-depressing widespread winter storm and improved packer production helped Cattle futures take another step higher Wednesday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.17 higher ($1.55 to $3.175 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.14 higher (83¢ to $1.65 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade in Nebraska and the Western Corn Belt was moderate through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. In Nebraska, live sales traded $3-$4 higher at $140/cwt. and dressed sales traded $4 higher at $222. In the Western Corn Belt, live sales traded $3 higher at $140-$141 and dressed prices were $4 higher at $222.

Trade in the Southern Plains was mostly inactive on light demand. Last week, live sales were $137 in the Texas Panhandle and $136 in Kansas.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $2.29 lower Wednesday afternoon at $283.15/cwt. Select was 65¢ lower at $279.57

Corn futures closed mostly down 2¢ to 12¢.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 16¢ higher through March ’23, then down 2¢ to 9¢.

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Follow-through support carried Major U.S. financial indices higher again on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 224 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 71 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 42 points.

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CattleFax provided a strongly optimistic cattle price forecast during its Outlook Seminar in Houston Wednesday.

With cattle numbers declining, front-end fed cattle marketing approaching pre-civid levels and beef demand continuing strong, CattleFax projects the average fed steer price this year $18 higher year-over-year at $140/cwt. with a range of $130-$155. The organization forecasts the average feeder steer price (800 lbs.) at $172 with a range of $158-$184, and the average calf price (550 lbs.) at $205 with a range of $180-$230.

Moreover, CattleFax forecasts utility cows at an average of $75/cwt. with a range of $65 to $85. Bred cows are expected to bring an average $1,850/head with a range of $1,700 to $2,000 for load lots of quality, running-age cows.

The feeder cattle and calf supply will be 675,000 head fewer than last year, totaling 25.5 million head, according to CattleFax. Fed cattle slaughter will decline 400,000 head to 25.7 million head. Commercial beef production will contract over the next several years starting with a 2% decline in 2022.

Kevin Good, vice president of industry relations and analysis at CattleFax, pointed out U.S. beef cow inventories fell more than 700,000 head from last year and are nearly 1.6 million less than the cyclical peak. This year, the beef cow herd will be near 30.1 million head.

“Drought, market volatility and processing capacity challenges affected 30-40% of the cow herd over the last year. Without an improvement in weather and profitability, at least 250,000 more head will be liquidated in 2022,” Good says.

Cattle futures extended gains Tuesday after a struggle for follow-through support from the bullish Cattle report and thoughts that packer interest will improve this week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 72¢ higher (28¢ to 90¢).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 70¢ higher (55¢ to 93¢ higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were at $137/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, at $136 in Kansas $137 in Nebraska and at $137-$139 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was steady at $218.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value Tuesday afternoon was $4.96 lower at $285.44/cwt. Select was $3.05 lower at $280.22.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 9¢ higher in the front six contracts.

Soybean futures closed 12¢ to 38¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed Tuesday with the best three-day rally since 2020, as investors seemed to speculate the Federal Reserve will not stymie growth as it seeks to cool inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 273 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 106 points.

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Agricultural producer sentiment weakened in January as measured by the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index declined 6 points from the previous month to 119, its second-lowest reading since July 2020. The Index of Current Conditions fell 13 points to a reading of 133, while the Index of Future Expectations was down 2 points to a reading of 112.

The Ag Economy Barometer is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. This month’s survey was conducted between Jan. 17-21, 2022.

“Rising farm input costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions appear to be contributing to producers’ weaker perception of current conditions and expectations of their farm’s financial performance in 2022 when compared to last year,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Disruptions in the supply chain for many farm inputs, coupled with strong demand, are pushing production costs higher. In January, 57% of survey respondents said they expect farm input prices to rise by 20% or more in 2022 and 34% of producers said they expect prices to rise by 30% or more.

Beyond higher prices, 28% of survey respondents said they have had difficulty purchasing crop inputs from suppliers for the 2022 season. In a follow-up question posed to those experiencing difficulty in procuring crop inputs, respondents reported difficulty in purchasing a broad spectrum of crop inputs including herbicides, insecticides, fertilizer, and farm machinery parts.

Monday’s big news was the Cattle report from USDA, with the Jan. 1 cattle inventory. Herd contraction was expected, but numbers are less than many expected.

Beef cows of 30.125 million head were 718,500 head fewer (-2.3%) than the same time last year. That is the fewest numbers since 2015 and was the largest year-over-year decline since 1996-97, according to David Anderson, Extension livestock economist at Texas A&M University. He adds the report included a significant revision of 314,000 fewer head in the previous year’s beef cow inventory.

Although drought contributed to the decline in beef cows, Anderson adds calf prices, relative to costs, also has forced some culling.

Beef heifers held for replacement of 5.611 million head were 191,600 head fewer (-3.3%) than the previous year.

“That is the fewest replacement heifers held back since Jan. 1, 2014,” Anderson says, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “While fewer replacements would be needed with a smaller cow herd, a reduction this large indicates some expectations of more herd contraction.”

The calculated feeder supply outside of feedlots of 25.537 million head was 676,000 head fewer (-2.6%) than last year.

Dairy cows of 9.375 million head were 67,400 head fewer (-0.7%)

All cattle and calves of 91.902 million head were 1.888 million head fewer (-2.0%).

“The inventory report indicates that we are headed towards less beef production and higher prices,” Anderson says. “A cow herd of this size should also lead to some expectations of calf prices approaching the rarified air of the years following the Texas 2010-2012 drought. The current drought and its development over the coming months will dictate a lot about the cow herd over this year. But, good beef demand should also pull prices higher on top of available supplies.”

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Cattle futures closed higher with likely positioning ahead of the aforementioned  bullish Cattle report.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.18 higher (88¢ to $1.42).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.64 higher ($1.75 to $3.40 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were at $137/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, at $136 in Kansas $137 in Nebraska and at $137-$139 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was steady at $218.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 2¢ lower Monday afternoon at $290.40/cwt. Select was 14¢ lower at $283.27.

Corn futures closed mixed, from 10¢ lower to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 13¢ to 20¢ higher through Aug ’23 and then 2 higher to 3¢ lower.

Judging by estimated weekly cattle slaughter, the beef packing pace continues to improve but remains hindered.

Total cattle slaughter last week of 643,000 head was 7,000 head more than the previous week but 13,000 head less than the same week last year.

Oversold conditions and higher wholesale beef prices helped Cattle futures regain some ground Friday.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.31 higher Friday afternoon at $290.42/cwt. Select was $4.31 higher at $283.41.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 89¢ higher, except for unchanged in the back contract.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 71¢ higher (12¢ to $1.37 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $137/cwt., $1 lower in Kansas at $136, steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $137 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $137-$139. Dressed trade was steady at $218.

Keep in mind, USDA will release Jan. 1 cattle inventory numbers Monday afternoon.

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Resurgent tech stocks helped major U.S. financial indices close sharply higher Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 564 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 105 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 417 points.

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South American weather and the tension between Russia and Ukraine continued to bolster grain prices and market volatility last week.

In his weekly comments, Aaron Smith, crop marketing specialist at the University of Tennessee points out Brazil and Argentina account for 58% of global soybean exports and 40% of global corn exports.

As for political tension in eastern Europe, Smith explains, “Russia has increased its share of global wheat exports from less than 10% in the early 2000s to approximately 20% and has been the top global supplier of wheat in recent years. For the 2021-22 marketing year, Ukraine is projected to provide 12% of global exports of wheat and 16% of global exports of corn…Conflict between the two countries could restrict supplies and disrupt logistics in the region, causing importing countries to seek supplies elsewhere.”

Soybeans received another boost Friday from worries over reduced global palm oil exports. Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 21¢ higher through Jan ‘23 and then mostly fractionally higher to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures closed an average of 45.5¢ higher through the front six contracts week to week on Friday. Those contracts were an average of 80.9¢ higher over the last two weeks.

Corn futures closed 10¢ higher in the front three contracts on Friday and then mostly 2¢ higher. They were an average of 18.9¢ higher through the front three contracts week to week.

Cattle futures mostly eased lower in light trade Thursday as traders awaited more concrete direction from the packing pace.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 82¢ lower except for 20¢ higher in expiring Jan.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 43¢ lower, except for 20¢ higher in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far for the week, live prices are steady in the Texas Panhandle at $137/cwt., $1 lower in Kansas at $136, steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $137 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $137-$139. Dressed trade is steady at $218.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 35¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $289.11/cwt. Select was 62¢ lower at $279.10.

The average dressed steer weight the week ending Jan. 15 was 922 lbs., according to the latest weekly Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. That was 6 lbs. lighter than the previous week and 3 lbs. lighter than the previous year. The average dressed heifer weight of 851 lbs. was the same as a week earlier and 1 lb. heavier than the same time last year.

Net U.S. beef export sales for 2022 totaled 14,300 metric tons the week ending Jan. 20, according to the weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Sales were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Mexico, China, and Indonesia.

Grain exports helped underpin prices.

Net U.S. corn export sales (2021-22) were 29% more than the previous week and 84% more than the prior four-week average.

Net U.S. soybean export sales were up 53% from the previous week and 77% from the prior four-week average.

Net U.S. wheat export sales were 78% higher than the previous week and up noticeably from the prior four-week average.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 6¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 8¢ higher through Jan ‘23 and then mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices drifted lower Thursday, as investors pondered a tighter-fisted Fed and despite stronger quarterly economic growth than expected.

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, following an increase of 2.3% in the third quarter,” according to the U.S. Commerce Department. “The acceleration in the fourth quarter was led by an upturn in exports as well as accelerations in inventory investment and consumer spending.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 7 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 189 points.

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A Congressional bill intended to increase transparency in the beef supply chain may hinder pricing innovations that have contributed to beef demand growth over the last 20 years and translate into lower prices for cattle producers, according to a recent analysis by the Fryar Price Risk Management Center of Excellence at the University of Arkansas (UA).

Specifically, researchers analyzed the Cattle Price Discovery and Transparency Act (CPDTA), which was introduced in March last year and then subsequently re-introduced in the U.S. House and Senate last fall.

The bill includes elements widely supported by cattle producers, such as increasing the level of price reporting and creating a publicly available library of marketing contracts between packers and producers. However, the bill also mandates minimum levels of negotiated cash fed cattle trade, an element that continues to divide the industry.

Cash cattle trade lessened over time as cattle feeders and packers increased the use of Alternative Marketing Agreements (AMAs), which enable further differentiation and value segregation of beef carcasses. AMAs enable paying more for cattle that produce beef of higher value to the consumer — clearer pricing signals. At the same time, AMA participants reduce transaction costs and price risk.

For comparison, the analysis explains negotiated cash fed cattle trade usually revolves around a single price paid for all cattle in a pen. That means the average price discounts cattle of higher value and rewards cattle below the pen average.

“By privileging an average pricing system in the sector, the legislation makes it less likely that innovations such as AMAs will be pursued. Innovations that might further reduce transactions costs and/or support further production changes to more closely align the beef end product with consumer tastes and preferences could be beneficial to maintaining and even growing beef demand in the future,”

says John Anderson, director of the Fryar Price Risk Management Center of Excellence. He coauthored the analysis report.

“If AMA use in the Southern Plains is restricted, the most likely immediate outcome is that transaction costs … between feeders and packers will likely go up,” Anderson says. “The lion’s share of this increase will most likely be borne by cow/calf and stocker producers in the form of lower feeder cattle prices.”

On a related note, the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) recently revised policy, no longer supporting mandated levels of cash fed cattle trade.

“We support the majority of this legislation (CPDTA), but we cannot support mandatory cash sales,” says AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “We are committed to working with the sponsors of the bill to make revisions to ensure it aligns with the priorities outlined by our membership.”

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday on apparent technical support and the notion that packer production is gaining.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.11 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 95¢ higher (17¢ higher in waning spot Jan to $1.30 higher toward the back).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Texas Panhandle through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live sales were steady at $137/cwt.

Trade was slow on moderate demand in Kansas at $136-$137, mostly $1 lower at $136.

In Nebraska and the western Corn Belt, trade was limited on light demand. So far this week, in both regions, live sales are steady to $2 lower at $137 and dressed trade is steady at $218.

Wholesale beef prices continued to falter, suggesting the seasonal top may have been breeched. Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $2.92 lower Wednesday afternoon at $289.46/cwt. Select was $3.60 lower at $279.72.

Soybean futures surged on South American weather and dragged Corn futures along.

Soybean futures closed 21¢ to 32¢ higher through the front five contracts and then mostly 5¢ to 15¢ higher.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ higher through the front six contracts  and then mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Wednesday, continuing the volatile seesaw of late, but in reverse order this time: gaining early and losing late in the session.

Part of the give and take likely had to do with the statement from the Federal Reserve.

“With inflation well above 2% and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate,” said Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, in a statement. The timing and degree remain uncertain.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 129 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 2 points.

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“Currently, levels indicate that 2022 will see continued herd contraction and the USDA Cattle report Jan. 31 will likely see the inventory of cows that have calved and beef heifers held as replacements decrease from 36.97 million head to approximately 36.75 million head,” says Brenda Boetel, Extension livestock economist at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

Boetel is referring to the percentage of heifers on feed currently (38.8%) and the average on-feed percentage (38%) for 2019-2021.

“In January 2014, at the most recent cattle cycle inventory low, the percentage of heifers on-feed inventory was 35.5%. This percentage will decrease during the initial phases of herd rebuilding as heifers will be held back as replacements, and the percentage will increase during herd contraction.”

Boetel adds that deferred live cattle prices will likely receive most of the pressure from increased feedlot placements revealed in the latest Cattle on Feed report, which were led by light weights.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend in any region, there were some live sales in the Southern plains and Nebraska at $137/cwt. Early dressed trades were $218.

Last week, live prices were at $137/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $137-$138 in Nebraska and at $137-$139 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $218.

Cattle futures continued to lose ground Tuesday, unable to escape the uncertain packing pace and volatile outside markets.

Lower wholesale beef prices on the day, perhaps signaling a near seasonal top, added to Live Cattle angst. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 22¢ lower, except for an average of 29¢ higher in three contracts at either end of the board.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.12 lower Tuesday afternoon at $292.38/cwt. Select was $1.47 lower at $283.32.

Nearby Corn futures prices beyond the $6.00 mark added pressure to Feeder Cattle futures, which closed an average of $1.14 lower, except for 7¢ higher in spot Jan.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 8¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 11¢ to 13¢ higher after 4¢ to 9¢ higher in the front four contracts.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday but a canyon away from session lows for the second consecutive day of a massive sell-off followed by a frantic comeback. Underlying forces appeared the same — inflation, rising interest rates and the standoff between Russia and Ukraine.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 53 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 315 points.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) declined in January, but remained above growth neutral the for the 14th consecutive month, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

The region’s overall reading for January fell 5.6 points from the previous month to 61.1. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Solid grain prices, the Federal Reserve’s record-low short-term interest rates, and growing agricultural exports have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Bankers overwhelmingly named rising farm input prices, such as fertilizer, as the top threat this year to agricultural producers in their respective areas. Disruption of farm input deliveries and rising interest rates ranked second and third.

“Inflation is a serious problem here. Gasoline prices have nearly doubled since November 2020,” says Jim Eckert, president of the Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Illinois. “Food prices are up well above what’s claimed by the government. Poor fiscal policy in D.C. is sinking all ships!”

“Increased input costs have raised our average farmer break even points, but current commodity prices still produce moderate gains in all areas of financial statements,” according to Jim Brown, CEO of Hardin County Savings Bank, Eldora, Iowa.

On average, bank CEOs expect the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates by 0.70% (70 basis points) this year. Approximately 18.5% of bankers expect four or more one-quarter percentage point rate hikes in 2022.

Still, Brown says, “Our loan reviews show an increase in working capital, net worth and lower leverage in almost every case.”

The region’s farmland price index decreased to 88.5 from December’s record high of 90.0. January’s reading was the 16th straight month the index was above growth neutral.

As expected, significantly higher feedlot placements revealed in Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report cast a pall over Cattle futures Monday, darkened by wildly volatile outside markets. However, they recovered some lost ground by the end of the session.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 lower (92¢ to $2.05 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.03 lower (25¢ to $2.02 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive with very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were at $137/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $137-$138 in Nebraska and at $137-$139 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $218.

The five-area direct average steer price last week was 89¢ higher on a live basis at $137.50/cwt. The average steer price in the beef was 7¢ lower at $217.92.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.09 higher Monday afternoon at $293.50/cwt. Select was $2.46 higher at $284.79.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ higher, riding the coattails of Wheat futures, which remain bolstered by the geopolitical tension in eastern Europe.

Soybean futures closed mostly 7¢ to 13¢ lower on rains in South America.

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Major U.S. financial indices started out Monday rampaging lower as investors continued to flee risk amid uncertainty surrounding how quickly the fed will raise interest rates and by how much, as well as the tensions brewing between Russia and Ukraine. By the end of the session, however, they reversed course, presumably on perceived bargain buying.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 99 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 12 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 86 points.

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“Although cattle numbers are generally declining, feedlots will try to maintain inventories as long as possible,” says Derrell Peel Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. In part, he was explaining the 6.5% (+119,000 head) year-over-year increase in December feedlot placements revealed in the monthly Cattle on Feed report.

“Producers may have helped feedlots with large December placements as rising feeder prices encouraged later and larger auction totals…at least in some regions,” Peel says. “In Oklahoma, for example, feeder cattle auction totals for the three weeks of December sales were up 22.4% year over year.”

Peel points out lighter cattle made up the lion’s share of increased placements with those weighing less than 700 lbs. up 9.5% compared to the previous year, while cattle going on feed weighing more than 800 lbs. were just 1.8% more.

“Feeder cattle supplies are expected to tighten considerably in 2022,” Peel says. “Declining cattle numbers are projected to reduce cattle slaughter by 2.5-3.0% in 2022 and lead to a 2.5% decrease in beef production for the year. However, drought could change the timing by forcing more liquidation and slaughter sooner and delaying the decrease in production until later.”

For annual perspective, Peel says total fed steer and heifer slaughter (federally inspected) was 25.97 million head last year with heifer slaughter of 9.83 million head comprising 37.8% of fed slaughter, the largest percentage since 2004. 

“Total cow slaughter was 6.67 million head and accounted for 20.1% of total slaughter, the highest percentage since 2011,” Peel says. “Beef cow slaughter totaled 3.562 million head, up 9.0% year over year.”