Daily Market Highlights

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on light to moderate demand in all major feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live sales traded steady in the Texas Panhandle at $124/cwt. and steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $122-$124/cwt. Dressed trade in Nebraska was $2 lower at $196.

Although too few to trend, there were some live sales in Kansas at $123-$124 and some in the western Corn Belt at $121.00-$123.50.

Those softer prices and declining wholesale beef values pressured Live Cattle futures Wednesday, which closed an average of 26¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in away Oct and unchanged in away Dec.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.23 lower Wednesday afternoon at $297.33/cwt. Select was $2.57 lower at $271.78/cwt.

Weakness on the live side and a day of stronger Corn futures added pressure to Feeder Cattle, which closed an average of $1.08 lower.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher through Aug ‘22 and then mainly 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday with the third straight day of losses in NASDAQ, while the dollar rose to its highest level since November 2020.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 91 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ closed 34 points lower.

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Although the global economy is growing more than expected a year ago — buoyed by extraordinary support from governments and central banks — recovery remains uneven, according to the latest Interim Economic Outlook from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

“Large differences in vaccination rates between countries are adding to the unevenness of the recovery,” according to the report. “Renewed outbreaks of the virus are forcing some countries to restrict activities, resulting in bottlenecks and adding to supply shortages.” 

Similarly, inflationary price pressure is variable. OECD notes inflation is rising rapidly in the U.S. and some emerging economies, but remains relatively low in many other advanced economies, particularly in the euro area.

“A rapid increase in demand as economies reopen pushed up prices in key commodities such as oil and metals as well as food, which has a stronger effect on inflation in emerging markets,” according to OECD. “The disruption to supply chains caused by the pandemic has added to cost pressures. At the same time, shipping costs have increased sharply.”

OECD projects inflation in the G20 countries to peak toward the end of this year and then slow throughout 2022.

OECD forecasts strong global growth of 5.7% this year and 4.5% in 2022.

“Even in the countries where output or employment have recovered to their pre-pandemic levels, the recovery is incomplete, with jobs and incomes still short of the levels expected before the pandemic,” according to the Interim Economic Outlook.

Short covering and lower Corn futures helped Feeder Cattle futures mostly rebound from the previous day’s pressure.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.00 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 17¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 39¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in all major feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Fed cattle prices last week were generally steady on a live basis at $123-$124/cwt. Dressed trade was $2 lower at $198 in Nebraska and $194-$198 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.14 lower Tuesday afternoon at $301.56/cwt. Select was 3¢ lower at $274.35.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ lower through new-crop contracts and then 2¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 9¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Spiking treasury yield rates and the Congressional budget stalemate weighed on equity markets Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 569 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 90 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 423 points.

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Despite bad weather and the delta variant spread, consumer online and physical restaurant visits in August continued to recover from last year’s steep declines, according to the NPD Group (NPD). U.S. restaurant traffic increased by 5% over the 10% decline in August 2020 and was 5% less than the pre-pandemic level in August 2019. Larger average check sizes drove a 13% increase in dollars compared to a year ago and a 3% gain in dollars over the same month two years ago, according to NPD’s daily tracking of the U.S. restaurant industry. 

“Overall, the state of the U.S. restaurant industry today reflects the steady state of the home-centric lifestyle that has us eating more meals at home,” says David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor. “This behavior pre-dates the pandemic and will continue into the foreseeable future. To meet the needs of today’s restaurant consumers, restaurant operators need to think about getting meals and snacks into the home.”

Quick service restaurant visits, representing most U.S. restaurant traffic, were down 3% in August compared to August 2019, up 2% versus the same time last year. Visits to full service restaurants declined by 9% this August compared to the same month two years ago, and increased by 20% versus a 25% decrease in August 2020. 

While restaurant visits improved overall, dine-in or on-premises traffic continues to struggle compared to pre-pandemic levels. Dine-in visits were down 34% in August compared to August 2019. Off-premises orders, which gained significant ground during the pandemic, represented 73%, of all restaurant visits this August. Of off-premises services, delivery continues its meteoric growth, with orders increasing by 128% in August compared to the same month two years ago, and now represents 10% of off-premises visits. Carry-out visits, which hold a 49% share of off-premises traffic, increased by 6% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Drive-thru visits rose by 11% in August compared to August 2019 and represented 41% of off-premises visits in the month. Although digital ordering has grown by triple-digits since the pandemic began, non-digital orders represented 85% in of all restaurant orders in August.

Cattle futures closed lower Monday, pressured by Friday’s Cattle on Feed report with unexpectedly higher placements. 

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 40¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.68 lower (38¢ to $3.00 lower). They received extra pressure from Corn futures, which closed an average of 12¢ higher in the front six contracts, apparently based on early yields.

Soybean futures closed up across the board, mostly 2¢ to 6¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. 

Live price last week were generally steady at $123-$124/cwt. Dressed trade was $2 lower at $198 in Nebraska and $194-$198 in the western Corn Belt.

 Choice boxed beef cutout value was 62¢ lower Monday afternoon at $302.70/cwt. Select was 15¢ lower at $274.38.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Monday, after the Federal Reserve chair said last week tapering of stimulus efforts could start as soon as November. Brent crude closed at the highest mark since 2018. Two regional Fed presidents stepped down unexpectedly on Monday amid scrutiny over their 2020 stock trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 71 points higher. The S&P 500 12 closed points lower. The NASDAQ closed 78 points lower. 

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“Going forward, the expectation is that fed cattle supplies will continue to tighten and drop below the slaughter capacity cap that has separated the fed market from beef markets,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. “Beef production is expected to drop in the fourth quarter and fed markets should participate more fully in the market strength. Barring any new disruptions or “Black Swans,” cattle and beef markets should get lined up in a more typical fashion and move forward with tighter supplies and continued strong demand.”

In his weekly market comments, providing insight to Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, Peel notes cattle feeders appear to making headway with front-end supplies, albeit slowly.

“The 12-month moving average of feedlot placements peaked recently in April, with declines since, except for a slight move higher with the large August placements,” Peel explains. “Generally, declining placements imply smaller feedlot numbers, eventually. The large heavy placements in August will front-end load future production somewhat. The 12-month moving average of marketings peaked recently in June and is moving lower in July and August suggesting that the peak feedlot production is past.” He adds that the 12-month moving average feedlot inventory also peaked recently in June and is also moving lower.

As for August placements, Peel explains, the unexpected increase came almost exclusively in weights heavier than 700 lbs. For instances he points to the 15.4% year-over-year increase in cattle placed weighing more than 900 lbs.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill to mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were too few transactions to trend in any region.

Live price last week were generally steady at $123-$124/cwt. Dressed trade was $2 lower at $198 in Nebraska and $194-$198 in the western Corn Belt.

Cattle futures closed mixed on Friday, amid fairly light action as traders positioned ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report and the end of the week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 50¢ higher, except for 27¢ lower in spot Sep.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 34¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was 641,000 head, according to USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). That was 16,000 head fewer than the previous week. Year-to-date estimate total cattle slaughter of 20.11 million head was 627,000 head more (+3.2%) than the same period last year. Estimated year to date beef production of 20.1 billion lbs. was 627 million lbs. more (+3.2%) than the same time last year.

The average dressed steer weight the week ending Sept 11 was 909 lbs., according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. That was 3 lbs. heavier than the previous week but 11 lbs. lighter than the same week last year. The average dressed heifer weight of 831 lbs. was 9 lbs. heavier than the previous week but 5 lbs. lighter than the previous year.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.28 lower Friday afternoon at $303.32/cwt. Select was 46¢ lower at $274.53.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday, ending a volatile week of trade.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 33 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 4 points.

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Markets may deem Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report a bit bearish with August placements about 3% more than estimates ahead of the report.

There were 2.10 million head placed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, which was 2.3% more than a year earlier. Pre-report estimates, on average, saw a decline of 0.7%. In terms of weight, 34% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 48% weighing 800-999 lbs. and 18% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Cattle marketed in August of 1.88 million head were 0.37% less than a year earlier, about even with pre-report expectations.

Cattle on feed Sept. 1 of 11.23 million head were 160,000 head fewer (-1.40%), which was 0.5% more than expected. That’s the second highest inventory for the date since the data series began in 1996, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill to limited trade on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were too few transactions to trend in any region.

So far this week, live price are generally steady with last week at $123-$124/cwt. Dressed trade is $2 lower at $198 in Nebraska and $194-$198 in the western Corn Belt.

Resurgent equity markets helped Cattle futures mainly increase Thursday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ higher, except for 5¢ lower in spot Oct.

Recently higher Corn futures capped Feeder Cattle, which closed from an average of 33¢ lower in three contracts to an average of 37¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.23 lower Thursday afternoon at $305.60/cwt. Select was 51¢ lower at $274.99.

Net U.S. beef export sales (2021) for the week ending Sept. 16 totaled 15,800 metric tons, according to the weekly U.S. Export Sales report. That was 3% more than the previous week and 17% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, and Canada. 

Consensus favors Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report coming in about even with the previous year; slightly few placements and total cattle on feed.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to rally Thursday with follow-through support from the Fed’s dovish tone a day earlier.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 506 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 53 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 155 points.

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Federally Inspected (FI) total cattle slaughter in August of 2.83 million head was 83,300 head more (+3.02%) year over year, according to the monthly Livestock Slaughter report from USDA. The average live weight was down 11 lbs. from the previous year, at 1,354 lbs. For January through August, total FI cattle slaughter of 22.08 million head was 964,100 head more (+4.6%) than the same time last year.

Total commercial beef production in August of 2.36 billion lbs. was 24.4 million lbs. more (+1.04%) than the previous year. Beef production for January through August of 18.53 billion lbs. is 782.6 million lbs. more (+4.41%) year over year.

Total commercial red meat production in August of 4.59 billion lbs. was 104.3 million lbs. less (-2.20%) year over year, due to lower year-over-year production of veal, pork, lamb and mutton. For January through August, total red meat production of 36.88 billion lbs. was 541.4 million lbs. more (+1.49%) than the same period last year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow with moderate demand in Kansas and Nebraska through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices were steady in Kansas at $123-$124/cwt., but $1 lower in Nebraska at $124. Dressed trade in Nebraska was $2 lower at $198.

Trade was limited on light demand in other regions. A light test brought steady money of $124 in the Texas Panhandle. Live sales in the western Corn Belt last week were $123-$124; dressed sales were $196-$200.

Higher outside markets and potential positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report helped lift Cattle futures Wednesday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.09 higher (87¢ to $1.27 higher) except for 5¢ lower in spot Sep.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.02 higher (65¢ to $1.30 higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.54 lower Wednesday afternoon at $307.83/cwt. Select was $2.51 lower at $275.50.

Corn futures closed 7¢ to 8¢ higher through new-crop contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 9¢ higher through the front six contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rallied back Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve seemed to soothe some investor worries with its statement Wednesday, acknowledging progress in domestic economic recovery — and the likelihood of tapering its bond buying program soon — while holding interest rates steady and reiterating it will do so until maximum employment is achieved and inflation rises to 2% and moderately exceeds that level for some time.

“With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen,” according to the statement. “The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 338 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 150 points.

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USDA’s latest monthly Cold Storage report continues to reflect strong red meat demand.

Total pounds of beef in freezers Aug. 31 were 4% more than the previous month but 8% less year over year.

Frozen pork supplies were up 4% from the previous month but down 1% percent from the same time last year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 4% more than the previous month but 6% less than a year earlier. 

Total frozen poultry supplies were down 3% from the previous month and down 20% from a year ago.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains and Western Corn Belt through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. In Nebraska, trading was mostly inactive with very light demand and not enough purchases to trend.

Last week in the Texas Panhandle, live sales traded at $124/cwt. In Kansas, live sales traded from $123-$124. In Nebraska, live sales traded at $124 and dressed mostly at 200. In the Western Corn Belt, live sales traded from $123-$124 and dressed at $196-$200.

Cattle futures mostly firmed Tuesday, despite continued pressure in Lean Hogs, tied to queasiness over China’s economic growth. After the bell, USDA announced confirmation of African Swine Fever in Haiti, which shares an island with the Dominican Republic, where it was recently confirmed.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 48¢ higher, except for an average of 7¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 38¢ higher, except for an average of 22¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.29 lower Tuesday afternoon at $311.37/cwt. Select was $2.74 lower at $278.01.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 9¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices retained most of the previous session’s steep losses on Tuesday as investors awaited the Fed’s quarterly economic outlook and interest rate notions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 51 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 33 points.

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The venerable cattle cycle is alive and well. Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University provides insight to the systematic ebb and flow of the U.S. beef cattle inventory.

“Cattle cycles continue to be a regular feature of the industry for several reasons,” Peel explains, in his latest weekly market comments. “It takes rather exaggerated price signals to encourage the cow-calf sector to change course and the lengthy biology of cattle production makes changing course a slow process. Perhaps most important is the interaction between production and reproduction in the cattle industry. Since cattle have offspring one at a time, the process of expanding production when inventories are too low means that tight supplies are made even tighter to retain heifers for increased production and likewise too much supply is made even larger in the short run as more cows are culled and fewer heifers are retained for production.”

Peel points out the most recent cyclical expansion from 2014 to 2019 was the first significant one since 1990 to 1996. 

“A muted cycle from 2004 to 2007 resulted in very little expansion before more liquidation to 2014.  Cattle inventories declined 15 of 18 years from 1996 to 2014,” Peel explains. “The most recent cattle cycle began with an inventory low of 88.24 million head in 2014 with cattle numbers increasing to 94.8 million head in 2019. Modest cyclical liquidation in 2019 and 2020 brought cattle inventories down to 93.6 million head in January 2021. Herd liquidation is being exaggerated by drought in 2021. It is not clear exactly how much and how fast the industry will liquidate going forward but cattle cycles continue to be an important fundamental feature affecting cattle markets in the U.S.”

Plenty of Monday’s market attention was focused beyond cattle to equities and other commodities as Wall Street investors sold heavily, apparently mostly due to concerns tied to China’s property market. Fears are a potential global domino effect in financial markets on top of ongoing worries about the pandemic and economic growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 614 points, the S&P 500 closed 75 points lower and the NASDAQ was down 330 points.

Despite the heavy outside pressure, Cattle futures held their own.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 29¢ higher, except for unchanged in Mar and 5¢ lower in May.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 16¢ lower except for 55¢ higher in near Dec.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 5¢ lower through new-crop contracts and then mostly 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 15¢ to 21¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, prices were steady to unevenly steady in the Southern Plains and Nebraska with live prices at $124/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $123-$124 in Kansas and $124 in Nebraska. Live prices in the western Corn Belt were $1-$3 lower at $123-$124. Dressed traded was unevenly steady at $200 in Nebraska but unevenly steady to $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $196-$200.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.19 higher Monday afternoon at $315.66/cwt. Select was $1 higher at $280.75.

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Reduced U.S. beef imports from Australia are helping lift domestic ground beef prices, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“While the United States is a major global supplier of beef, it also imports beef and processing-grade beef (used for ground beef) to meet a growing consumer demand,” ERS analysts explain. “Historically, Australia is the predominant supplier of processing-grade beef to the United States, with smaller amounts coming from Brazil, Canada, and New Zealand, among other countries.”

As Australia restocks pastures from a multi-year drought, that nation has less beef to export.

For perspective, the price for 90% lean beef from Australia was $240/cwt. in February of this year, according to ERS. The price was $274 in July.

Although it will take Australia a good while to restock, ERS expects that nation’s cattle inventory to ultimately realign close to former supply levels.

“Meanwhile, as the economy reopens, the demand for beef and ground beef is expected to support beef prices,” say ERS analysts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, prices are steady to unevenly steady in the Southern Plains and Nebraska with live prices at $124/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $123-$124 in Kansas and $125 in Nebraska. Live prices in the western Corn Belt were $1-$3 lower at $123-$124. Dressed traded was unevenly steady at $200.

Through Thursday, the five-area direct fed steer price was 83¢ lower on a live basis at $123.90/cwt. The average steer price in the beef was $2.14 lower at $200.81.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was 83,000 head more than the previous week at 660,000. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 23.7 million head was 843,000 head more (+3.7%) than the same time last year. Total year-to-date beef production of 19.57 billion lbs. was 643.3 million lbs. more (+3.4%) than the same period last year.

Cattle futures sagged lower Friday amid outside market weakness and week-end positioning.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 89¢ lower (57¢ lower at the back to $1.20 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 78¢ lower.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.53 lower at $314.47/cwt. Select was 52¢ lower at $279.75.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 12¢ lower through Aug ‘22 and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday as investors seemed content to pick up their chips and ponder recent equity and commodity market weakness amid the continued pandemic. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closxed 166 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 40 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 137 points.

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U.S. beef exports’ record pace so far this year is even more impressive when you consider growing demand from countries that are just now becoming key markets.

As mentioned previously in Cattle Current, U.S. beef exports set another new value record in July, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). July export value climbed 45% from a year ago to $939.1 million, while volume was the third largest of the post-BSE era at 122,743 metric tons (mt), up 14% year-over-year.

Yet, according to analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), shipments were less year over year to five of the top seven U.S. customers, albeit relatively small reductions.

“The rise in part reflects large shipments of U.S. beef to China, the largest U.S. beef exports to China, ever recorded, totaling almost 45 million lbs. more than the previous year,” according to ERS, in the September Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. “Indonesia, a smaller destination, made a sizeable contribution to the increase in beef exports in July. U.S. beef exports to Indonesia totaled 7.1 million lbs., by far the largest volume the United States has ever exported to that country.”

ERS projected third-quarter U.S. beef export shipments 20 million lbs. higher than the previous estimate; 10 million lbs. higher for the fourth quarter.

The annual forecast for 2021 was revised up 30 million lbs. to 3.41 billion lbs. The forecast for 2022 was unchanged from last month at 3.27 billion lbs.,” say ERS analysts.

Cattle futures managed to close marginally lower to narrowly mixed Thursday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 34¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 56¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 38¢ lower, except for an average of 6¢ higher in two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains and mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, prices are steady to unevenly steady in the Southern Plains and Nebraska with live prices at $124/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $123-$124 in Kansas and $125 in Nebraska. Live prices in the western Corn Belt are $1-$3 lower at $123-$124. Dressed traded is unevenly steady at $200.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.82 lower Thursday afternoon at $318.00/cwt. Select was $3.62 lower at $280.27.

Net U.S. beef export sales for the week ending Sept. 9 were 15,300 metric tons, according to USDA’s weekly U.S. Export Sales report. That was 23% more than the previous week and 24% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan, South Korea, China, Mexico, and Canada.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher through May ‘22 and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices mainly hovered in place Thursday amid investor caution. Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Sept. 11 were 332,000, which was 20,000 more than the previous week and a tad gloomier than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 63 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 20 points.

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Price projections in the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) continue to be optimistic, especially heading into 2022.

ERS sees the 2022 annual average feeder steer price (basis 750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) at $155.00/cwt., which would be $9.12 more than this year’s estimate and $19.55 more than the 2020 average. Prices are projected at $154 in the third quarter and $155 in the fourth quarter for an annual average of $145.88. Prices are forecast at $153 in the first quarter next year and at $151 in the second.

ERS projects the 2022 annual average five-area direct fed steer price at $128.25/cwt., which would be $6.07 more than this year’s projection and $19.74 more than 2020. Prices are projected at $124 in the third quarter and $131 in the fourth quarter for an annual average of $122.18. Prices are forecast at $133 in the first quarter next year and at $128 in the second.

“Cow slaughter is expected to be higher during the second half of the year, partly offsetting declines in steer and heifer slaughter. But, coupled with lighter expected dressed weights, the forecast for 2021 beef production was reduced to 27.74 billion lbs., down 130 million lbs. from last month,” according to ERS analysts.