Daily Market Highlights

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in Kansas through Friday afternoon. Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices for the week were steady to 50¢ lower in the Texas Panhandle at $117.50-$119/cwt., steady in Kansas at $119, $1-$2 lower in Nebraska at $118 and steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at$118-$119. Dressed trade was $1-$2 lower in Nebraska at $188-$190 and steady to $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187-$190.

Feeder Cattle futures closed mostly higher Friday, but off of session highs, in the face of increasing front-month Corn futures. Live Cattle futures tagged along.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ higher in five contracts and then unchanged to 5¢ lower

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 65¢ higher through the front five contracts (27¢ to $1.25 higher) and then unchanged to 27¢ lower.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 49¢ lower at $305.88/cwt. Select was 91¢ higher at $290.27

Total estimated cattle slaughter for the week ending May 7 was 638,000 head, which was 11,000 head fewer than the previous week. Total estimated beef production of 527.3 million lbs. was 10 million lbs. less week to week.

Corn futures closed mostly 11¢ to 13¢ higher through Jly ‘22, and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 15¢ to 25¢ higher through May ‘22, and then mostly 9¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, amid one of those frequent non-intuitive paradoxes. Presumably, much of the support stemmed from investors betting the Federal Reserve will maintain dovish monetary policy longer, due to April employment numbers falling far short of expectations.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased 266,000 in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Various reports pegged pre-report estimates at closer to 1 million.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls were $30.17 in April, up 21¢ from the previous month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 229 points higher. The S&P 500 was up closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 119 points.

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“Timely rains remain critical to being able to stock cattle through the summer,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC). “ Drought continues to intensify across the U.S. and is looking dismal in key areas.  The Western half of the U.S. is in the worst stages of drought (65%-D0-D4, 47% D3-D4), a situation that has persisted since last year and is escalating.”

As noted in Cattle Current last week, USDA’s first seasonal assessment ranked just 22% of the nation’s pasture and range as Good or Excellent, versus 46% at the same time last year. Conversely, 47% was rated as Poor or Very Poor, compared to 16% a year earlier.

“One of the newer developments in the Drought Monitor has been the spread of dryness across the Corn Belt,” say LMIC analysts, in the latest Livestock Monitor.  The Drought Monitor indicates that 44% of this region is in some level of drought. Dryness is less of a concern when planting, and typically means faster acres planted…The problem is more about soil moisture and growing phases which can affect crop yields.”

Based on USDA’s Crop Progress report last week, LMIC analysts point out top soil moisture conditions are rated as Short or Very short across 37% of cropland in the continental U.S. About 55% of cropland is reporting adequate moisture compared to 65% in 2020

“These figures are worrisome but with most of the growing season ahead of us, it’s early to be calling for yield declines just yet,” say LMIC analysts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon. Live prices were steady with the previous day at $119/cwt., according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Elsewhere, trade was limited on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Earlier in the week, live prices were at $117.50 to $119.00 in the Texas Panhandle, at $118 in Nebraska and at $118 to $119 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were at $187 to $190. Live prices in Colorado last week were at $119-$120.

Feeder Cattle futures gave back everything gained in the previous session as corn prices surged higher yet again on Thursday. Live Cattle futures extended modest gains, supported by blooming wholesale beef values and a sizable gain in open interest the previous day.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 66¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.02 lower.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.59 higher Thursday afternoon  at $306.37/cwt. Select was $3.18 higher at $289.36

The average dressed steer weighing for the week ending Apr. 24 was 896 lbs., according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. That was 2 lbs. lighter than the previous week. The average dressed heifer weight of 825 lbs. was 12 lbs. lighter. Beef production was 16.9 million lbs. at 547.4 million lbs.

Corn futures closed 10¢ to 20¢ higher from Jly ‘21 to Jly ‘22, mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher in other contracts.

Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 28¢ higher through Mar ‘22, and then mostly 11¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, apparently buoyed by the previous day’s bullish ADP^®National Employment Report^TM, and betting on similar results in the government’s employment situation summary due out Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 318 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 50 points.

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U.S. beef exports surged in March, with volume up 8% year over year, the second most in the post-BSE era, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 124,808 metric tons (mt) in March. Export value for the month exceeded $800 million for the first time at $801.9 million, up 14% year-over-year. Beef muscle cut exports set new monthly records for both volume (98,986 mt, up 13% from a year ago) and value ($718.3 million, up 17%). For the first quarter, beef exports pulled even with last year’s pace at 333,348 mt, valued at $2.12 billion. For beef muscle cuts, first quarter exports increased 4% to 262,914 mt, valued at $1.9 billion (up 5%).

March highlights for U.S. beef included record exports to China, Honduras and the Philippines.

March pork exports were record-large at 294,724 mt, up 1% from last year’s strong total, setting a new value record at $794.9 million (up 4%).

“It’s very gratifying to see such an outstanding breakout month for U.S. beef and pork exports,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “Exports were off to a respectable start in 2021, considering the logistical and labor challenges the industry is facing and ongoing restrictions on the foodservice sector in many key markets. While these obstacles are not totally behind us, the March results show the situation is improving and the export totals better reflect the strong level of global demand for U.S. red meat.”

Muscle cuts drove March export growth, but Halstrom is also encouraged by a rebound in shipments of beef and pork variety meat.

“The tight labor situation at the plant level has been especially hard on variety meat volumes,” Halstrom explains. “But March variety meat exports matched last year’s performance for pork and were the largest of 2021 on the beef side. It’s important that the capture rate for variety meat continues to improve, as this is a critical component of the export product mix.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill to mostly limited on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, live prices in Nebraska are $1-$2 lower than last week at $118/cwt. Dressed prices are $1-$2 lower at $188-$190.

Live prices in the western Corn Belt this week are steady to $2 lower at $118-$119. Dressed prices are steady to $4 lower at $187-$190.

Last week, live prices were at $118-$119 in the Southern Plains and at $119-$120 in Colorado.

Cattle feeders offered 1,906 head (12 lots) in Central Stockyards’ weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction. Of those, 1,091 head (6 lots) sold for mostly $118.50 to $119/cwt., steady with the previous week’s country trade.

At Sioux Falls Regional in South Dakota, fat steers and heifers sold $3-$5 lower. There were 223 Choice 2-3 steers weighing an average of 1,433 lbs., bringing an average of $115.97/cwt., which was $2-$3 lower than established country trade.

Cattle futures found some footing on Wednesday, helped along by technical support and oversold conditions.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.44 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.86 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.56 higher Wednesday afternoon at $304.78/cwt. Select was $2.27 higher at $286.18

Corn futures closed 20¢ to 24¢ higher from near Sep to Jly ‘22, mostly 5¢ to 7¢ higher in other contracts.

Soybean futures closed mostly 15¢ to 19¢ higher, except for 4¢ to 9¢ higher in the front three contracts.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Wednesday. Support included positive quarterly corporate earnings reports from the likes of GM. Employment data suggested more optimism, as well.

Private sector employment increased by 742,000 jobs from March to April according to the April ADP® National Employment ReportTM. That was more than the trade expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 97 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 51 points.

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Declining cattle futures reflect the market realities cash prices first followed, says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“Optimism from late winter and early spring is being replaced by realism that: it is going to take another two to three months to work through the large front-loaded fed animal inventories; fed animal slaughter is at capacity; costs of gain are now substantially higher than the past several years,” Koontz explains.

As noted recently in Cattle Current, larger than expected ready fed cattle supplies stem from lingering pandemic impacts, as well as the February winter storm that disrupted supply chains. Concurrently, packing capacity remains less than before the pandemic.

“Combined fed steer and heifer slaughter has been just short of 525,000 head per week. It is likely that this is a reasonable maximum that the packing industry can process,” Koontz says. “Packer margins are strong but there is little incentive to pay more for fed cattle when plants are operating six days per week. There is little to no possibility to process more cattle, regardless of the incentive to do so. There are a lot of historical relationships that are irrelevant when the packing industry is essentially at capacity.”

Based on the latest Cattle on Feed report, he says the number of cattle on feed more than 120 days and more than 150 days declined, suggesting some progress in reducing market-ready fed cattle supplies. But, Koontz says supplies will likely be abundant into late summer.

As for increasing feed costs, Koontz points out Corn futures increased $2/bu. from August of last year to mid-January this year and then tacked on another $1.50 since the end of March. He notes the formula cost of gain for fed cattle this summer is well beyond $1/lb.

“If live cattle have little upside and the corn market continues to ration old crop, then it is feeder cattle that have to adjust,” Koontz says.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska through Tuesday afternoon. Live prices were steady to 50¢ higher than the previous day at $118/cwt., which was $1-$2 lower than last week. Dressed prices were $1-$2 lower at $188-$190.

Trade in the western Corn Belt was light to moderate on moderate demand. Live prices were steady to $3 lower than last week at $117-$119. There were a few dressed trades at $187-$190, but too few to trend; $190-$191 last week.

Elsewhere, trade was limited on light demand. Live prices in the Southern Plains last week were at $118-$119. Prices in Colorado last week were $119-$120.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.92 higher at $301.22/cwt. Select was 12¢ higher at $283.91

Feeder Cattle futures and front-month Live Cattle wilted Tuesday, pressured by higher feed costs and plentiful fed cattle supplies.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 82¢ lower across a broad range, from an average of $1.52 lower in the front four contracts to an average of 26¢ lower across the rest of the board.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.26 lower.

Grain futures popped higher Tuesday as the market continues trying to buy more acres. That was despite what appeared to be a production-friendly planting report.

Corn futures closed mostly 13¢ to 18¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 12¢ to 18¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed to mainly lower Tuesday. Investor jitters seemed centered around inflation fears. On the one hand, pandemic supply chain disruptions, in tandem with economic reopening are driving up input costs. On the other, there’s concern the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates and slow monetary easing faster than previously suggested.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 19 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 28 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 261 points.

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Agricultural producers grew more optimistic about the future last month, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. Month to month, the Index of Future Expectations increased 5 points to 169.

“The strength in commodity prices continues to drive improving expectations for strong financial performance, even as many are seeing rising input costs,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

At the same time, agricultural producers lost some confidence in existing circumstances. The Index of Current Conditions dropped 7 points in April, to a reading of 195.

“The difference in producers’ short-term versus long-term expectations could be an indication they are concerned that the rapid rise in farmland values we’re seeing may not be sustainable over the long run,” Mintert says.

Even so, ranchers and farmers expect farmland values to continue rising over the next year. The Short-Run Farmland Value Expectations Index rose to a record high reading of 159, which was 11 points higher than the previous month. Further out, producers were less optimistic. The Long-Term Farmland Values Expectations Index (looking five years ahead) declined 9 points in April to a reading of 148.

Overall, the Ag Economy Barometer was virtually unchanged, up one point from March to a reading of 178. It’s calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. The current survey was conducted April 19 to 23.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in Nebraska through Monday afternoon. There were a few live trades at $117.50 to $118.00/cwt. but too few to trend. Elsewhere, trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

The average five-area direct fed steer price last week was $118.89/cwt. on a live basis, which was $2.47 less than the previous week. The average steer price in the beef was $1.67 less at $190.44.

Cattle futures managed to fade stronger pressure early to close mixed on Monday with most of the pressure in nearby contracts.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 23¢ higher, except for $1.27 and 27¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 69¢ higher (5¢ to $1.40 higher), except for an average of 27¢ lower in three contracts.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.80 higher Monday afternoon at $299.30/cwt. Select was 74¢ higher at $283.

Corn futures closed mixed; mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ higher, except for 7¢ lower and 6¢ higher in the front two contracts.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 10¢ lower through the front three contracts, then mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher through Aug ’22; mostly fractionally lower across the rest of the board.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly higher Monday, buoyed by continued progress in COVID-19 vaccinations and easing health restrictions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 238 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 11 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 67 points.

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“Overall cattle market conditions are still expected to improve year over year in the second half of the year. However, current challenges are somewhat more severe and taking longer to clear than earlier expected. Market conditions are very dynamic now and the next few weeks may determine the tone of markets for the remainder of the year,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

In his weekly market comments, Peel explains ample supplies are pressuring fed cattle prices as feedlots struggle to get more current.

“On the other end, feeder cattle are being squeezed between a stagnant fed market and rising feed prices. The pressure is weighing on feeder cattle markets with both cash feeder cattle prices and feeder futures moving lower in April,” Peel says.

As well, drought continues to deepen. Peel notes the Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI) is at 180 for the U.S., the highest ever for April or May. He points out hay prices are increasing, too. The national average price for other hay in March was $142/ton versus $134 a year earlier. March prices for alfalfa were $181/ton compared to $172 the previous year.

‘There are indications that beef cow liquidation is accelerating,” Peel says. “March monthly beef cow slaughter was up 10.2% year over year. Beef cow slaughter in April is increasing but is difficult to interpret compared to pandemic-disrupted levels one year ago.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains and Colorado through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

For the week, live prices were steady to $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $118-$119/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Nebraska at $119-$120, $2 lower in Colorado at $119 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $119. Dressed trade was $1-$2 lower in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $190-$191.

Continued increase in wholesale beef values helped Live Cattle futures mostly advance Friday, despite the week’s anemic cash trade and another surge higher in Corn futures, which upended Feeder Cattle once again.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 87¢ higher, except for $3.47 lower in expiring Apr.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.43 lower, from 10¢ lower at the back to $3.12 lower toward the front.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.74 higher Friday afternoon at $296.50/cwt. Select was $3.26 higher at $283.05

Total estimated cattle slaughter for the week ending May 1 was 649,000 head, which was 16,000 head fewer than the previous week, according to USDA.

Corn futures closed 13¢ to 38¢ higher through Jly ‘22, and then mostly 5¢ to 9¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 28¢ higher through Jan ‘22, and then mostly 12¢ to 18¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, apparently pressured by profit taking more than anything.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 185 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 30 points lower. The NASDAQ down 119 points.

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Frustration among cattle producers continues to mount as wholesale beef prices escalate, while fed cattle prices weaken and the run-up in feed costs pressures calf and feeder cattle prices.

“Slaughter levels have increased year over year, beef demand is strong, and packers have more cattle available to them than they want to process. This means the packer maintains leverage over cattle feeders despite the market moving into a period of stronger beef demand or at least strong anticipated demand,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.

Although carcass weights are typically lightest at this time of year, Griffith points out they are heavier than last year and the five-year average.

“Slaughter levels are manageable, but they are expected to increase, given the quantity of cattle on feed. There will be lower prices to come in the finished cattle market,” Griffith says.

Economics explains much of what’s happening, if not the magnitude. More cattle in need of harvesting, compared to existing slaughter capacity, means packers have the leverage, period. Keep in mind, according to various reports, much of the capacity lost to the pandemic last year returned with extraordinary speed. However, measures imposed to protect workers means post-pandemic capacity is less than it was before. If drought forces lots more cows to town in bunches, the challenge will grow.

New processing facilities—more packing capacity—are currently in various stages of construction in different parts of the U.S. I don’t have the numbers to tell you how much capacity or how much it will address the current imbalance.

One Cattle Current podcast listener called me at the end of last week. I know him. His family is one of those in the business for generations. He’s a solid thinker, innovative and progressive as they come, and not given to buying into the fiction some toss around about packer conspiracies and all of that. He wonders why producers don’t create a check-off to fund construction of more producer-owned packing capacity.

Never minding the monumental raw cost and challenges of building and running a packing plant, the notion of producers taking more control of their economic fortunes at the last stage of production is hard to argue.

For my money, those producers who put up the money and took the risk to start U.S. Premium Beef (USPB) proved the possibility. If you’re unfamiliar, the vision began in 1995. By 1997, about 450 cow-calf producers and cattle feeders made a financial commitment, developed a business plan and purchased a minority interest in what was then Farmland National Beef. At one point, USPB was the majority owner of what became National Beef; they still own an interest today. In essence, these producers purchased shares, which not only gave them ownership in the company, annual dividends and whatnot, but it secured them delivery slots for cattle aimed at the value-added grid USPB created.

In some ways, from what little I know of it, that sounds like what producers and other business interests are doing with the recently announced Sustainable Beef LLC packing plant to be constructed at North Platte, NE.

Anyway, building more producer-owned packing capacity is one listener’s idea. What’s yours? If you have ideas you want to share with Cattle Current listeners, please email them to wes@cattlecurrent.com

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in the Texas Panhandle and Colorado through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, trade was limited on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

So far this week, live prices in the Texas Panhandle are $1-$2 lower than last week in the Southern Plains at $118-$119/cwt., $2-$4 lower in the Northern Plains at $119-$120 and $1-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $119. Dressed trade is $1-$4 lower in Nebraska at $188-$191 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $191-$192.

Another day of softer Corn futures prices, after the front of the board, helped Cattle futures mostly extend gains on Thursday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 45¢ higher, except for an average of 14¢ lower in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 72¢ higher.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 5¢ lower, except for 15¢ and 4¢ higher in the front two contracts.

Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 15¢ lower through Jan ‘22, and then mostly 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, boosted by mostly positive economic new that included tech giant, Facebook, smashing quarterly revenue estimates and McDonald’s reporting sales higher than before the pandemic.

As well, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 6.4% in the first quarter of this year, reflecting continued economic recovery, reopening of establishments, and continued government response related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Initial weekly unemployment insurance claims were slightly more than anticipated, though. For the week and Apr. 24, claims were 553,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 239 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 28 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 31 points.

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Net U.S. beef export sales for 2021 were 23,600 metric tons the week ending Apr. 22, according to weekly U.S. Export Sales report. That was down 4% from the previous week, but up 22% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Mexico, China, and Hong Kong. 

Since 2000, beef exports accounted for about 9% of U.S. production, while beef imports represented about 11%, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

“U.S. beef trade is largely dependent on domestic production, and shocks to production can lead to a boost in import demand and a reduction in supplies available for export,” say ERS analysts.

For illustration those analysts point to the 2003 discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada and then in the United States. U.S. beef exports plummeted. At the same time, U.S. beef imports grew to record high levels in 2004 and 2005. The latter had to do with the fact there were more cattle to slaughter here, in need of more lean trim from outside the country, in order to maximize value.

More recently, of course, weekly beef production plunged as much as 34% year over year in the second quarter of last year as the pandemic forced temporary closures and reduced operations at processing facilities. Consumer beef purchasing patterns shifted dramatically toward retail.

ERS projects U.S. beef exports to grow as a percent of production this year, while imports are expected to decline.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle and Nebraska through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices in the Texas Panhandle were $1-$2 lower than last week at $118-$119/cwt.

Live sales in Nebraska were $2-$3 lower at $119-$120. Dressed trade was $1-$4 lower at $188-$191.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand, with too few transactions to trend.

So far this week, live sales in Kansas are $2 lower at $118-$119 and $3-$4 lower in Colorado at $119.

In the western Corn Belt last week, live prices were at $120-$123 and dressed prices were at $192.

Cattle feeders offered 3,231 head (19 lots) in Central Stockyards’ weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction. Of those, just 287 head (three lots) sold, all from Texas and all on a live-weight basis. The price was $119/cwt. for two lots of steers and $117.75 for a lot of heifers.

Lower cash prices and less packer processing than expected recently helped pressure Cattle futures Wednesday, despite softer Corn futures and oversold conditions.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.04 lower, except for 57¢ higher in spot Apr.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.25 lower, from 32¢ lower at the front to $1.72 lower at the back.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.51 higher Wednesday afternoon at $292.50/cwt. Select was 53¢ lower at $279.00

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 15¢ lower through Sep ‘22 and then 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 13¢ to 14¢ lower through Aug ‘22, except for 15¢  higher in spot May, and then mostly 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday. Primary pressure seemed linked to inflation worries, with the Federal Reserve issuing a statement that it will maintain the current lending rate and its accommodative monetary stance as the nation’s the economy and employment strengthen.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 164 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 3 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

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“A year since COVID-19 changed how we live, work and shop, online grocery demonstrates continued strength and impressive staying power,” says David Bishop, partner, Brick Meets Click. “The monthly active user base remains robust, average order values are at similarly elevated levels and order frequency has gone up.”

There were $9.3 billion in online grocery market sales during March, with 69 million households placing an average of 2.8 online orders, according to the Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey. Sales were 43% more year over year.

“Over the last 12 months, consumers’ dramatic shift to online grocery shopping has solidified, with curbside pickup attracting the largest share of monthly shoppers at 53% compared to ship-to-home and delivery,” explains Sylvain Perrier, Mercatus president and CEO. “In fact, pickup continues to have stronger consumer demand across all market types compared to delivery. Those brick-and-mortar chains that invested in optimizing pickup services likely will continue to benefit from the high repeat intent rate as indicated in the data.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed across a broad range Tuesday, helped along by a day of respite from rising new-crop Corn futures. Live Cattle softened as traders await cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ lower, except for 15¢ higher in the back contract.

Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 51¢ higher in five contracts (10¢ to $1.45 higher) to an average of 57¢ lower (7¢ to $1.40 lower).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.79 higher at $290.99/cwt. Select was $5.18 higher at $279.53

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 7¢ lower, expect for 15¢ higher in spot May and 2¢ higher in back contracts.

Soybean futures closed 18¢ to 19¢ lower through the front six contracts and then 6¢ to 16¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Tuesday.

Positive economic news included The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^®rising 12 points month to month to 121.7 in April.

“Consumer confidence has rebounded sharply over the last two months and is now at its highest level since February 2020,” says Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 3 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ down 48 points.

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Snugger beef supplies in cold storage are supporting the rise in wholesale prices.

Total pounds of beef in freezers Mar. 31 were 5.6% less than the previous month and 3.7% less than the previous year, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report.

Specifically, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) point out total beef in cold storage declined by 483.7 million lbs. month to month.

“Both boneless beef and beef cuts fell 3.4% and 8.5%, respectively, from last year to 451.3 and 32.3 million lbs.,” say LMIC analysts, in the latest Livestock Monitor. They note boxed beef cutout value rose $66.69/cwt. (+32.3%) from the start of the year to mid-April, when it was $274.42/cwt.

Total pork in cold storage was 6.5% less than the previous month and 26.8% less year over year. LMIC analysts add the 451.8 million lbs. of pork in cold storage was 26.0% less than the five-year average.

Total red meat in cold storage of 969.3 million lbs. was 62.3 million lbs. less (-6.0%) than the previous month and 192.7 million lbs. less year over year (-16.6%).

Total frozen poultry supplies in cold storage of 1.1 billion lbs. were 1.2 million lbs. more than the previous month (+0.1%), but 217.6 million lbs. less (-16.6%) year over year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices last week ranged from $118-$120 in the Southern Plains to $121 in the Northern Plains  to $120-$122 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was $2-$4 lower at $192.

The five-area direct fed steer price was 67¢ lower on a live basis last week at $121.36/cwt. The average steer price in the beef was $3.43 lower at $192.11.

Cattle futures closed mixed Monday as another surge in Corn futures weighed on Feeder Cattle.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 69¢ higher (35¢ to $1.10 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ lower (15¢ to $1.10 lower), except for an average of 31¢ higher in two contracts.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.43 higher Monday afternoon at $285.20/cwt. Select was $2.22 higher at $274.35

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 665,000 head was 20,000 head more than the previous week, according to USDA. Total estimated beef production was 20 million lbs. more at 550.2 million lbs.

Corn futures closed 15¢ to limit up 25¢ higher through Jly ‘22, and then mostly 8¢ to 9¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 21¢ to 26¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, with investors awaiting one of the busiest weeks of the season for quarterly corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 61 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 121 points.

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“Fed cattle prices have been disappointingly stagnant thus far in 2021, largely under the pressure of ample feedlot supplies,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Fed cattle price improvement is expected in the second half of the year but progress has been slower than expected due to residual effects of pandemic disruptions and the February winter storm. Fed prices are expected to be higher year over year for the remainder of the year, mostly when compared to pandemic-reduced prices last year, but also due to improving fed cattle market fundamentals as the year progresses.”

Relative to the cattle cycle, Peel explains pandemic impacts extended the pipeline of cattle supplies, delaying the reduction of fed cattle numbers last year and pushing more cattle into the first half of 2021.

“While feedlot inventories dropped seasonally in March and April, it may be into the second half of the year before feedlot inventories drop cyclically below year earlier levels,” Peel says.

Reflecting on Friday Cattle on Feed report, Peel points out numbers are less than two years earlier. More specifically, he says the Apr. 1 feedlot inventory is 0.5% less than in 2019, March feedlot placements were 0.8% less and March feedlot marketings were 14.8% more than the same time in 2019.

“The March placement total likely did include some increase in placements pushed into March by the February winter storm. Nevertheless, the placement total was not only smaller than pre-report expectations but was somewhat bullish in an absolute sense,” Peel says.