Daily Market Highlights

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices for the week were generally steady to mostly $2 higher on a live basis through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service: $112/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $112 in Nebraska, mostly $111 with a few up to $112 in Colorado. They were steady to $6 higher week to week in the western Corn Belt at $110-$112. Dressed trade was $3-$4 higher at $175-$176.

Cattle futures closed mostly higher Thursday, helped along by stronger front-month Lean Hog futures.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 26¢ higher, except for an average of 17¢ lower in three contracts.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 58¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $209.95/cwt. Select was $4.21 lower at $195.65.

The average dressed steer weight of 921 lbs. the week ending Dec. 19 was 1 lb. lighter than the previous week, but 17 lbs. heavier than the same time a year earlier, according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. The average dressed heifer weight of 847 lbs. was 1 lbs. lighter than the previous week, but 14 lbs. heavier year over year.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 14,900 metric tons reported for 2020 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 82% from the prior four-week average, according to the U.S. weekly Export Sales report for the week ending Dec. 24. Increases were primarily for Japan, China, South Korea, Mexico and Canada.

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Strong exports combined with iffy South American production continued to fuel grain futures. According to USDA’s Weekly Export Sales report, net U.S. corn export sales of 964,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 48% from the previous week, but down 27% from the prior four-week average.

Net U.S. soybean export sales of 695,400 MT for 2020/2021 were up 97% from the previous week and 25% percent from the prior four-week average.

Net U.S. wheat export sales of 520,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up 32% from the previous week and up 4% from the prior four-week average.

On Thursday, Corn futures closed 8¢ to 9¢ higher through Jly ‘21 and then mostly 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ higher through May ‘21. And then mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher. Support included weekly initial unemployment insurance claims of 787,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That was 19,000 fewer than the previous week and more positive than the trade expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 196 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 18 points.

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When you consider the unprecedented market disruptions spawned by the pandemic in 2020, perhaps the most extraordinary realization is how well markets work, though we don’t always understand the finer points or like the outcome.

Among cattle market lessons and reminders gleaned:

“If packers cannot run or cannot run at typical throughput levels—especially if animal supplies are abundant—then the marginal value of that last group of animals that is not sold is close to zero. And the last pen or truckload or group of animals is a perfect substitute for the first. It is the marginal value of the last product that sets the market. This point is critical. In fact, that is what is communicated by economists when supply and demand curves are drawn. The equilibrium quantity and price are what is traded at the lowest marginal value to buyers and the highest marginal value to sellers.”—from Economic Reasons for What was Observed in Fed Cattle and Beef Markets During the Spring of 2020 by Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University.

“‘We heard a lot of questions about how it was possible that farm prices could decline while wholesale prices increased, if the market was even halfway functioning,” explained Ted Schroeder, agricultural economist at Kansas State University. “It’s a market phenomenon. The direction of price change and the magnitude of change is exactly what our demand models suggested. We’re surprised by the veracity of the event every day, but we’re not surprised by what the market responses have been.’”

He was explaining the difference between primary and derived demand—from Beef Demand is Everything, BEEF magazine, by Wes Ishmael.

“Much attention has been paid to the increase in apparent gross margins for beef packers, which was the impetus of the USDA investigation. However, this spread is a metric of just two factors, live cattle prices and wholesale beef prices. It does not reflect all costs incurred in harvesting and processing cattle into beef. The cattle-to-beef margin excludes other operating costs, such as labor costs. Because of the impact of COVID, including procuring personal protective equipment, redesigning plant operations, and other necessary adjustments, labor and other operating costs increased.

“More importantly, the cattle-to-beef margin does not reflect fixed costs. Fixed costs constitute the largest percentage of overhead for meat packers. Overall, per head margins on processing cattle rise dramatically as slaughter throughput is decreased. Fixed costs must be spread out across the volume of cattle processed. Reducing the number of cattle processed by up to one-third, or idling a plant for several days, adds significantly to the per head cost of slaughter and processing.”—from Analysis of USDA’s Boxed Beef and Fed Cattle Price Spread Investigation Report, by Dave Juday of The Juday Group.

“The U.S. has fewer FI (federally inspected) cattle slaughter plants than it had 20 years ago. But, the current number of FI plants is the highest since 2004. In 1998, the U.S. had 795 FI cattle slaughter plants. Plant numbers bottomed at 626 in 2007 and 627 in 2012, before reaching 670 in 2019. In 2019, 71.6% of FI slaughter plants each slaughtered between 1 and 999 head annually, 16.0% slaughtered between 1,000 and 9,999 head, and 10.6% slaughtered between 10,000 and 999,999. This compares to 71.7%, 14.8% and 11.7%, respectively, in 1998. Plants that each slaughtered over one million head only comprised 1.8% of the total number of U.S. FI cattle slaughter facilities in both 1998 and 2019. Nonetheless, it remains the case that roughly 60% of total beef‐and pork‐processing capacity is provided by the 10 largest beef and the 15 largest pork packing plants (National Pork Board 2019)”—from Beef and Pork Marketing Margins and Price Spreads during COVID-19, by agricultural economists, Jayson Lusk at Purdue University, Lee Shultz at Iowa State University and Glynn Tonsor at Kansas State University.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices edged higher Wednesday amid light trade. Although there were too few transactions to trend in any region, there were some live trades $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $111/cwt., some at steady money in Nebraska at $110 and a few $2-$6 higher in the western Corn Belt at $112. There were also a few dressed sales $4 higher in Nebraska at $176.

Cattle feeders offered 1,015 head (six lots) in the Central Stockyards weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction Wednesday. One lot of heifers—194 head—from the Southern Plains sold for a weighted average price of $111/cwt. on a live basis.

Cattle futures closed mostly lower Wednesday, especially Feeder Cattle, as grain futures continued surging higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 19¢ lower, except for 7¢ and 27¢ higher at either end of the board.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.14 lower.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 23¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $210.53/cwt. Select was $4.38 higher at $199.86.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ higher through Sep ‘21 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Wednesday with some support from a third COVID-19 vaccine approved for emergency use in the United Kingdom.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 73 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 19 points.

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Economic destruction continues across the restaurant sector and will likely get worse before it improves, according to a recent survey conducted by the National Restaurant Association (NRA).

“What these findings make clear is that more than 500,000 restaurants of every business type—franchise, chain, and independent—are in an economic free fall. And for every month that passes without a solution from Congress, thousands more restaurants will close their doors for good.” That’s from the letter penned by Sean Kennedy, NRA executive vice president for Public Affairs. It was sent to Congress earlier this month, explaining the dire need for more government assistance to restaurants, which are the nation’s second largest private sector employer.

The NRA Research Group surveyed 6,000 restaurant operators and 250 supply chain businesses Nov. 17-30, 2020.

Among the stark survey findings:

**87% of full-service restaurants (independent, chain, and franchise) reported an average 36% drop in sales revenue. “For an industry with an average profit margin of 5%-6%, this is simply unsustainable,” Kennedy explained.

**83% of full-service operators expect sales to be even worse over the next three months.

**59% of operators say their total labor costs (as a percentage of sales) are higher than they were pre-pandemic.

**58% of chain and independent full-service operators expect continued furloughs and layoffs for at least the next three months.

**17% of restaurants—more than 110,000 establishments—were closed permanently or long-term.

            “The vast majority of permanently closed restaurants were well-established businesses, and fixtures in their communities. On average these restaurants had been in business for 16 years, and 16% had been open for at least 30 years,” according to the NRA letter. “Only 48% of these former restaurant owners say it is likely they will remain in the industry in any form in the months or years ahead. Our nation is losing a generation of industry talent, knowledge and entrepreneurial spirit.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, it was at a standstill.

Last week, prices in the Southern Plains were $2 higher on a live basis at $110/cwt., $5 higher in Nebraska at $110 and $1-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $106-$110. Dressed trade was $7 higher at $172.

Cattle futures closed lower Tuesday with pressure from surging grain futures and despite the prospect of higher cash prices this week as packers reload and retailers restock.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 63¢ lower, except for an average of 5¢ higher in two contracts toward the back.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 99¢ lower from 52¢ lower at the back to $1.37 lower in spot Jan.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.48 higher Tuesday afternoon at $210.30/cwt. Select was $1.17 lower at $195.48.

Corn futures closed mostly 5¢ to 9¢ higher through Jly ‘22 and then mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 35¢ to 40¢ higher through Aug ’21, and then mostly 6¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged lower Tuesday on some likely profit taking and pressure from further COVID-19 stimulus wrangling in Congress.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 68 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 49 points. 

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“Our livestock producers need all the tools in the toolbox to help protect against animal diseases and continue to meet the challenge of feeding everyone now and into the future. If we do not put these safe biotechnology advances to work here at home, our competitors in other nations will,” said U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue last week, in announcing a significant step in modernizing regulations of agricultural animals modified or produced by genetic engineering.

USDA will move forward with an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) to solicit public input and feedback on a contemplated regulatory framework that would modernize the current system into a scientifically-sound, risk-based, and predictable process that facilitates the development and use of these technologies for U.S. farmers and ranchers under USDA’s authorities.

“Science-based advances in biotechnology have great promise to continue to enhance rural prosperity and improve the quality of life across America’s heartland and around the globe,” Secretary Perdue explained. “With this effort, we are outlining a pragmatic, science-based, and risk-based approach that focuses on potential risk to animal and livestock health, the environment, and food safety in order to provide our farmers and ranchers the tools they need to continue to feed, clothe and fuel the world.”

Last year, President Trump directed federal agencies to modernize the regulatory framework for agricultural biotechnology products by establishing regulatory approaches proportionate to the product’s risks, avoid unjustified distinctions across similar products, and promote future innovation and competitiveness.

The ANPR will transition portions of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) pre-existing animal biotechnology regulatory oversight to USDA.

As mentioned previously in Cattle Current, the FDA last month approved the first intentional genomic alteration (IGA) in an animal for both human food consumption and as a source for potential therapeutic uses. It’s for a line of domestic pigs referred to as GalSafe pigs. The IGA is intended to eliminate alpha-gal sugar on the surface of the pigs’ cells. People with Alpha-gal syndrome (AGS) may have mild to severe allergic reactions to alpha-gal sugar found in red meat (e.g., beef, pork, and lamb).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in the western Corn Belt through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, it was at a standstill.

Last week, prices in the Southern Plains were $2 higher on a live basis at $110/cwt., $5 higher in Nebraska at $110 and $1-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $106-$110. Dressed trade was $7 higher at $172.

The five-area direct weighted average steer price last week was $109.19/cwt. on a live basis, which was $3.07 more than the previous week. The average steer price in the beef was $6.51 more at $171.80, according to USDA’s weekly report.

The five-area direct weighted average fed heifer price was $109.68/cwt. on a live basis, which was $3.25 more week to week. The average dressed heifer price was $6.74 more at $171.91.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 21¢ higher Monday afternoon at $207.82/cwt. Select was $1.28 lower at $196.65.

Estimated total cattle slaughter for the week ending Dec. 26 was 419,000 head, which was 56,000 head fewer (-11.8%) than the same time a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 31.7 million head was 1.1 million head fewer (-3.5%) than in 2019.

Total estimated beef production for the week of 352.5 million lbs. was 40.2 million lbs. less (-10.2%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 26.37 billion lbs. was 264.3 million lbs. less (-1%) than a year earlier.

Cattle futures closed mostly higher Monday, but off of session highs, supported by stronger cash prices late last week, higher outside markets and a winter storm aiming for the Corn Belt.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 46¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed from an average of 9¢ lower to an average of 14¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 8¢ lower through Aug ’21, and then 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices bounced higher Monday, supported by President Trump’s signature on the government-spending bill, which includes an additional $900 billion in COVID-19 relief. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 204 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 94 points.

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Although signals are mixed, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says it’s likely the beef cowherd Jan. 1 will be unchanged from the prior year to 1% less.

In his weekly market comments, Peel explains cowherd expansion or liquidation depends on both heifer retention and cow culling.

At the beginning of this year, beef replacement heifers were 18.4% of the beef cow inventory.

“This was down from the peak retention in 2016 of 21.0%, when herd expansion was in full force,” Peel says. “Historically, the replacement heifer percentage drops below 18% during herd liquidation. Of course, producer plans can change during the year. The July inventory estimate for beef replacement heifers was unchanged from last year but is a low enough level to potentially suggest some herd liquidation.”

Concurrently, Peel explains heifers in feedlots in 2020, on average, were 1.1% less year over year, with an Oct. 1 estimate about equal to a year earlier. Heifer slaughter this year is projected to be down about 3.6% compared to last year. 

“Heifer slaughter as a percent of the cow inventory is not low enough to suggest herd expansion nor large enough to suggest significant liquidation,” Peel says.  “Taken together, the various heifer data seem to suggest mostly steady heifer retention, which could support a 2021 herd inventory either side of unchanged from 2020 levels.”

As for cow culling, estimated beef cow slaughter in 2020 is 2.6% higher year over year, implying a net beef cow culling rate (beef cow slaughter as a percent of herd inventory) of 10.5%, according to Peel.

“Beef cow culling has increased from the record low level of 7.6% in 2015, when herd expansion was accelerated. Herd culling above 10% is consistent with modest levels of herd liquidation, though the current level is below the culling rates (typically above 11%) that indicate significant herd liquidation. The mid-year cattle report pegged the beef cow inventory down 0.8% year over year, generally consistent with the cow slaughter data this year,” Peel says.

If beef cow numbers are the same to 1% less than the previous year, in the next Cattle report (due out Jan. 29), then Peel says it would continue the slow tightening of beef cattle numbers and beef production in 2021.

“Total 2021 cattle slaughter is forecast to be down about 1%, leading to a year-over-year decrease in beef production of 1% to 2%,” Peel says. “Herd dynamics in 2021 could affect these forecasts. If herd liquidation should accelerate, the short-term impacts would be an increase in cattle slaughter due to more heifers and cows in the slaughter totals. Conversely, should the industry move to expand cattle inventories, cattle slaughter would be reduced with fewer heifers in feedlots and fewer cows culled. There is potential for either scenario. The cattle inventory trajectory in 2021 will depend on numerous factors including control of the pandemic, U.S. macroeconomic conditions, global protein markets, drought conditions, and feed prices, among others.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle was not reported Thursday or Friday. On Wednesday, prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $110/cwt., according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were some early dressed sales in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $172; a few live sales in the western Corn Belt at $110. Trade in those regions the previous week was at mostly $105 on a live basis and mostly $165 in the beef.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $3.13 lower on Wednesday at $207.54/cwt. Select was $1.66 lower at $197.93.

The average dressed steer weight the week ending Dec. 12 was 922 lbs., which was the same as the prior week but 18 lbs. heavier than the same week a year earlier, according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. The average dressed heifer weight of 848 lbs. was 2 lbs. lighter week to week but 7 lbs. heavier year over year.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed but mostly slightly higher in Thursday’s short session, amid extremely light holiday trade. Heading into the new week, support from stronger cash prices and the outlook for higher wholesale beef values will likely compete with year-end position squaring.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 21¢ higher except for 7¢ lower in the back contract.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 25¢ higher except for unchanged to 40¢ lower in three contracts.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher through Aug ’21, and then fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Thursday amid light holiday trade.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 70 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 33 points.

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Total cattle slaughter under federal inspection (FI) in November of 2.66 million head was 80,100 fewer (-2.93%) than the same time last year, according to USDA’s monthly Livestock Slaughter report. For January through November total FI cattle slaughter of 29.42 million head was 939,000 head fewer (-3.09%) than the same period last year.

FI fed steer and heifer slaughter in November of 2.09 million head was 49,400 (-2.31%) less year over year. For January through November, total FI fed cattle slaughter was 23.17 million head, which was 823,200 head fewer (-3.43%) than the same time last year.

Commercial beef production in November of 2.26 billion lbs. was 34 million lbs. less (-1.48%) than a year earlier. For January through November, commercial beef production of 24.82 billion lbs. was 62.4 million lbs. less (-0.25%) than the same period last year.

However, total commercial red meat production through the first 11 months of the year was 50.80 billion lbs., which was 513.2 million lbs. more (+1.02%) year over year. Pork production drove the increase.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains Wednesday at $110/cwt., with moderate trade and demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, trade was slow on light to moderate demand. Although too few to trend, there were some early dressed sales in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $172; a few live sales in the western Corn Belt at $110. Trade in those regions last week was at mostly $105 on a live basis and mostly $165 in the beef.

Also on Wednesday, Central Stockyards hosted its weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction with a new bidding platform. Cattle feeders offered 803 head. Of those, 545 head (four lots) sold for an average of $110/cwt. Cattle sold were all heifers and all from the Southern Plains. Three lots sold via Bid-the-Grid^TM; the other on a live basis.

Stronger week-to-week prices were also seen at the fat auction in Tama, IA where Choice steers and heifers traded $1.75 to $2.25 higher. There were 136 Choice 2-4 steers bringing an average price of $107.22/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.13 lower at $207.54/cwt. Wednesday afternoon. Select was $1.66 lower at $197.93.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 6,000 metric tons for the week ending Dec. 17 were 40% less than the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Canada and Hong Kong.

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday, supported by stronger cash prices and a surge in Lean Hog futures, likely tied in part to the previous day’s friendly Cold Storage report. As well, the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that came out later in the day indicates the inventory of all hogs and pigs as of Dec. 1 was 1% less year over year; 3% lower for the breeding inventory.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 97¢ higher from 65¢ higher toward the back to $1.60 higher in waning spot Dec.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 35¢ higher except for 15¢ lower in Oct.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ higher through Jly ‘22 and then mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 11¢ higher through Aug ’21, and then mostly 3¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday. Primary uneasiness seemed tied to President Trump vetoing the Defense Bill and waiting to sign the Spending Bill, demanding more COVID-19 relief.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 114 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 38 points.

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Higher feed costs are pressuring projected feedlot returns for the majority of the next nine months, according to the latest Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns from Kansas State University (KSU).

Keep in mind that the following projections assume no price risk management.

From December through August of next year, KSU projected positive returns in four months for fed steers: December, March, May and June. Projected returns range from +$14.99 per head in December to +$91.11 in May, with estimated feedlot cost of gain (FCOG) ranging from $84.67/cwt. (Dec.) to $91.11 in May.

Conversely, KSU projects losses in five of those nine months, ranging from -$6.28 per head in August to -$47.92 in July, with FCOG in those months ranging from $86.14/cwt. in January to $92.38 in April.

Projected fed steer return in November was $35.83 per head with an FCOG of $78.92/cwt.

Projected returns for fed heifers follow a similar path, with positive returns expected in December, March and May, ranging from +$11.90 per head in March to +$60.83 in May, with FCOG at $92.17 (Dec.) to $98.00 (May).

Negative fed heifer returns are projected in six of the nine months, from -$21.71 per head in June to -$100.99 in July, with FCOG from $94.59/cwt. in January to $100.48 in July.

Projected fed heifer return in November was $42.42 per head with FCOG of $85.41/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, it was limited to mostly inactive on very light demand. Although too few transactions to trend, there were a few live sales in the western Corn Belt at $103.00 to $106.25/cwt. Last week, live sales were at $108/cwt. in the Southern Plains and at mostly $105 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was at mostly $165.

Cattle futures closed lower Tuesday, likely pressured in part by some pre-holiday position squaring, technical correction and the lack of cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 70¢ lower from 27¢ lower in spot Dec to $1.20 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 81¢ lower except for unchanged in the back two contracts.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 25¢ lower at $210.67/cwt. Select was $2.33 higher at $199.59.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Sep ‘21 and then mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ higher through Aug ’21, and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again Tuesday. Despite Congress passing a federal spending bill for next year, including another round of pandemic economic stimulus, investors seemed to focus more on escalating COVID-19 cases.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 200 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ closed 65 points higher.

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Overall, total red meat and poultry supplies in freezers as of Nov. 30 were lower year over year, according to USDA’s monthly Cold Storage report.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were down 2% from the previous month and down 12% percent from last year.

Total pounds of beef in freezers were 2% more than the previous month and 7% more year over year.

Frozen pork supplies were down 7% from the previous month and down 28% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 21% from the prior month but down 58% from a year earlier. Bone-in hams for the month were the least since the data series began in 1995.

Total frozen poultry supplies were down 16% from the previous month and down 10% from a year earlier.

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“Placements below a year ago in October and November helped greatly reduce inventories on feed. October placements were down by more than 10%, and November settled in at 9% below 2019,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), reflecting on last week’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

At the same time, LMIC analysts explain the number of cattle on feed more than 120 days increased back above year-ago levels, driven by higher placement numbers in the third quarter and lower marketings in November.

“From a placement perspective, December auction volumes of feeder cattle receipts appear to have increased from December of last year, but border crossings of feeder cattle from Mexico continue to be below a year ago,” LMIC analysts explain, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The five-year average indicates December placements drop about 15% from November levels. Given November’s already low placements, expect December 2020 placements to have a restrained seasonal move compared to the five-year average.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in the five-area feeding region through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live sales last week were at $108/cwt. in the Southern Plains and at mostly $105 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was at mostly $165.

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Monday, supported by the nascent reversal in wholesale beef values and Friday’s friendly Cattle on Feed report.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 28¢ higher except for 22¢ lower in near Feb.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 73¢ higher from 17¢ higher in spot Jan to $1.02 higher at the back.

Wholesale beef prices continued to firm. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.29 higher at $210.92/cwt. Monday afternoon. Select was $2.99 higher at $197.26.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher through Jly ‘22 and then mostly unchanged to fractionally lower.

Soybean futures closed 17¢ to 23¢ higher through Aug ’21, and then mostly 7¢ to 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Monday amid widely volatile trade that began with a steep selloff based on concerns about the new COVID-19 strain discovered in the United Kingdom. By session’s end, though, cooler heads prevailed with optimism Congress would pass the new federal spending bill—including another round of pandemic stimulus.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 37 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 13 points.

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Volatile feedlot flows stemming from pandemic disruptions made it more difficult than usual to assess the fed cattle market, but that should change going forward, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

In his weekly market comments, Peel explains the extent of the volatility.

Monthly feedlot placements varied from 23% lower year over year in March to 11% higher in July, to 11% lower in October. “For the January to November period, total placements are down 4.4% year over year. In the last six months, which would include the majority of current feedlot inventories, placements are 0.5% above the same period last year,” Peel says.

Monthly feedlot marketings varied from 13% higher year over year in March to 27% lower in May to 6% higher in September. “For the year to date through November, total marketings are down 3.1% year over year. In the last six months, feedlot marketings are just fractionally higher than the same period last year,” according to Peel.

As of Dec. 1, there were 12.04 million head of cattle on feed (yards with 1,000 head or more capacity), according to the monthly Cattle on Feed report. That  was about even with the same time last year. Those numbers should continue a cyclical decline.

“Flows of cattle through feedlots should begin to show more consistent tightening in 2021,” Peel says. “The beef cowherd was at a peak in January 2019 and led to a 2019 calf crop that was down 0.7% from the 2018 peak calf crop. The estimated feeder cattle supply on Jan. 1, 2020 was down 0.4% from 2019 levels. The estimated 2020 calf crop in the July Cattle report is down another 0.7% from 2019. The July estimate of feeder cattle supplies was up slightly but was likely pushed higher due to the intra-year dynamics of feedlot placements. Current estimates suggest that the total calf crop in 2020 is 513,000 head less than the peak in 2018.”

So far this year, Peel explains total cattle slaughter is 2.8% less year over year. It should decline again next year.

“With herd inventories continuing to drift lower, total cattle numbers should be generally supportive of cattle prices in 2021,” Peel says.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, it was limited on very light demand. Although too few to trend, there were a few live sales in Nebraska at $107/cwt.

For the week, live sales were steady in the Southern Plains at $108/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Nebraska at $105 and $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $105. Dressed trade was $3 lower at $165.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 88¢ lower at $208.63/cwt. Select was 57¢ higher at $194.27.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 659,000 head was 6,000 head fewer than the previous week and 9,000 head fewer than the same week last year.

Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 31.29 million head is 1.08 million fewer (-3.3%) than last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 26.02 billion lbs. is 223.6 million lbs. less (-0.85%) than the same time last year.

Net U.S. beef export sales for the week ending Dec. 10 were up noticeably from the prior week and 15% more than the previous four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico and China.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Friday, as traders awaited the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below), and in the face of rising grain futures prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 36¢ higher except for unchanged to an average of 3¢ lower in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed from an average of 33¢ lower to an average of 15¢ higher.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ higher through Jly ‘22 and then unchanged to fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 12¢ to 18¢ higher through Aug ’21, 7¢ to 9¢ higher through Sep ’22 and then mostly fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday as Congress tried to reach agreement for additional federal stimulus, tied to next year’s government spending bill. A spending bill stopgap was set to expire Saturday, risking government shutdown. Lawmakers wrangled a two-day extension set to expire first thing Monday morning.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 124 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 13 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 9 points.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as at least neutral, with slightly fewer November placements and slightly more marketings than expected.

Placements in November of 1.91 million head were 187,000 head fewer (-8.9%) than the prior year, compared to average expectations of 8.2% less, according to the Urner Barry Survey shared by the Daily Livestock Report.

In terms of weight, 51.41% went on feed weighing less than 600 lbs., 37.04% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 11.54% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in November of 1.78 million head were 31,000 head fewer (-1.7%); pre-report expectations were for a decline of 2.1%.

Total cattle on feed in yards with 1,000 or more capacity, as of Dec. 1, were 12.04 million head, just 5,000 head more (+0.04%) than the previous year. Expectations ahead of the report were for no change.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were steady in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon at $108/cwt., according to the Agricultural Marketing Service, but there were too few transactions for a market trend.

There were also some live trades in Nebraska at $105, steady with the previous day but $1-$2 lower than the previous week. Dressed trades there on Wednesday were $3 lower at $165.

So far this week live trades are steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $105 on a lived basis and $3 lower in the beef at $165.

Cattle futures closed higher Thursday, supported by early signs that wholesale beef prices may be at or near the seasonal ebb. Firmness could also stem from expectations that Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be market friendly, with significantly lower year-over-year placements in November.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 50¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 82¢ higher from 12¢ higher in spot Jan to $1.22 higher.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ higher through Sep ‘21 and then mostly 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 14¢ to 17¢ higher through Aug ’21 and then mostly 7¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, buoyed by increasing optimism for more federal economic stimulus, as well as a second COVID-19 vaccine receiving a key nod off approval from FDA.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 148 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 106 points.

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This week, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first intentional genomic alteration (IGA) in an animal for both human food consumption and as a source for potential therapeutic uses. It’s for a line of domestic pigs referred to as GalSafe pigs. The IGA is intended to eliminate alpha-gal sugar on the surface of the pigs’ cells. People with Alpha-gal syndrome (AGS) may have mild to severe allergic reactions to alpha-gal sugar found in red meat (e.g., beef, pork, and lamb).

“Today’s first ever approval of an animal biotechnology product for both food and as a potential source for biomedical use represents a tremendous milestone for scientific innovation,” says FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D. “As part of our public health mission, the FDA strongly supports advancing innovative animal biotechnology products that are safe for animals, safe for people, and achieve their intended results. Today’s action underscores the success of the FDA in modernizing our scientific processes to optimize a risk-based approach that advances cutting-edge innovations in which consumers can have confidence.”

As part of its review, the FDA evaluated the safety of the IGA for the animals and people eating meat from them, as well as the product developer’s intention to market the IGA for its ability to eliminate alpha-gal sugar on pigs’ cells. The FDA  determined that food from GalSafe pigs is safe for the general population to eat. The FDA’s review also focused on ensuring the effectiveness of the IGA through the evaluation of data demonstrating that there is no detectable level of alpha-gal sugar across multiple generations of GalSafe pigs.

Potentially, GalSafe pigs may provide a source of porcine-based materials to produce human medical products that are free of detectable alpha-gal sugar, according to FDA. For example, GalSafe pigs could potentially be used as a source of medical products, such as the blood-thinning drug heparin, free of detectable alpha-gal sugar. Tissues and organs from GalSafe pigs could potentially address the issue of immune rejection in patients receiving xenotransplants, as alpha-gal sugar is believed to be a cause of rejection in patients.