Daily Market Highlights

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained mainly undeveloped through Thursday afternoon. USDA reported some live trade in the Texas Panhandle at $99/cwt., at the upper end of the $97-$99 price range paid in the region so far this week. Live sales there last week were at $100.

Despite early pressure, Cattle futures continued to extend gains on Thursday, helped by the limit-up move in Lean Hog futures—across all but the back contract—presumably stemming from recent Chinese pork purchases and reports the U.S. will delay imposing additional tariffs, for a while.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 60¢ higher (22¢ to $1.32 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were steady on moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 8¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $219.97/cwt. Select was 20¢ higher at $198.60.

Corn and Soybean futures climbed Thursday, especially soybeans, on reduced yield and production estimated in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Corn futures closed mostly 5¢ to 7¢ higher. 

Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 29¢ higher through Jan ’21 and then mostly 15¢ to 19¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday.

Positive news included the aforementioned report that President Trump was delaying the imposition of added tariffs on Chinese imports for two weeks, as the two sides prepare for renewed negotiations in October.

Also, the European Central Bank lowered its deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.50% and also renewed quantitative easing in the form of buying €20 billion of bonds per month, beginning in November.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 45 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 24 points.

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The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released yesterday reduced beef production and fed cattle prices for this year, compared to the previous month’s estimate

Beef production for this year was estimated 90 million lbs. less than the previous month at 26.95 billion lbs., primarily on the slower expected pace of fed cattle slaughter and lighter carcass weights in the fourth quarter. That would still be 81 million lbs. more than last year.

The average 5-area direct fed steer price (all grades) for this year is estimated at $113.50/cwt., which is $3 less than the previous month’s estimate, based on current prices and anticipated continued price weakness. Price for the third quarter is forecast at $107; $103 in the fourth quarter.

Total red meat and poultry production for this year is forecast at 104.60 billion lbs., which is 21 million lbs. less than the previous month’s estimate, but would be 2.17 billion lbs. more than last year. Higher expected broiler production offsets lower forecasts for beef, pork and turkey production.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Wednesday afternoon.

Choice 2-4 steers (172 head) weighing an average of 1,380 lbs. brought an average of $102.84/cwt. at the fat auction in Tama, IA. At Sioux Falls Regional, in South Dakota, though, 365 head of Choice 2-4 steers weighing an average 1,455 lbs. brought an average of $99.68.

There were 636 head offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange Auction. No sales, but two lots—a pen each of steers and heifers—were passed out at $99.

Cattle futures continued to rally, extending gains from the previous session and lifting hopes that markets carved out a bottom on Monday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.80 higher ($1.55 to $2.40 higher). That’s an average of $3.67 higher in the last two sessions.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.46 higher, making for an average increase of $3.78 over the last two days.

Wholesale beef values were sharply lower on light demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.49 lower Wednesday afternoon at $219.89/cwt. Select was $2.58 lower at $198.40.

Grain futures traded lower on apparent profit taking Wednesday.

Corn futures closed mainly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. 

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ’20 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, led by tech stocks, especially Apple.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 227 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 85 points.

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“Strong basis can help pull cattle through the supply chain, even at low prices, because producers who hedged their cattle want to take advantage of the additional revenue that larger basis provides,” says Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “That is likely the case in recent weeks even as fed prices have deteriorated.”

For those with passing familiarity, Maples explains fed cattle basis is the difference between cash fed cattle prices and spot month Live Cattle futures. He points to last week to illustrate. The 5-area weekly weighted average cash price at the end of last week for all grades of live steers was $101.73/cwt. October Live Cattle futures (the spot month) averaged $97.76 last week. So, the average basis was a positive $3.97.

Those who hedge cattle swap price risk for basis risk, which generally poses less risk, Maples says.

“Using a simplified example, assume a manager purchased a group of steers in March 2019 with plans to feed them for six months and immediately hedged by selling an October 2019 Live cattle futures contract which was trading at $116 at the time. After that point, prices going down helps them in their futures position but hurts them in their cash position, hence they are hedged against the impact of price changes,” Maples explains. “If this manager sold their steers last week and offset (bought back) their futures contract, they would have made $18.24/cwt. in the futures market ($116.00 – $97.76 = $18.24). Their cash cattle were worth much less than they were in March and they sold them for $101.73. Add the $18.24 made in the futures market to the $101.73 from selling the fed steers and this manager earned $119.97, which is $3.97 more than the futures price locked-in back in March ($119.97 – $116 = $3.97). This improvement over the locked-in price is due to the positive basis last week.”

Bottom line, based on average weekly nearby futures and average weekly fed steer price averages, Maples notes basis has been positive since the middle of April.

“This means that hedgers closing out in these weeks generally took home more than what they originally locked-in,” Maples says. “Conversely, from September 2018 through March 2019, basis was negative for 28 out of 32 weeks; hedgers generally took home less than their lock-in price. This shows that there is still risk in hedging, but the range (distribution) of basis risk is usually not as wide as the range of price risk.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Tuesday afternoon.

Choice 2-4 steers sold $4.25-$4.50/cwt. lower at the fat auction in Dunlap, IA, bringing an average of $97.76 at an average weight of 1,374 lbs.

Cattle futures showed some life, though, with support from oversold conditions and after early follow-through pressure.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.87 higher ($1.67 to $2.35 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.32 higher.

Wholesale beef values were lower on light demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.57 lower Tuesday afternoon at $225.38/cwt. Select was 94¢ lower at $200.98.

Grain futures traded higher Tuesday, perhaps on this week’s USDA Crop Progress report (see below), as well as some defensiveness heading into Thursday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 6¢ to 7¢ higher through Sep ’20 and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. 

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 14¢ higher through Sep ’20 and then fractionally higher to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices softened Tuesday, led by tech stocks, but closed little changed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 73 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was down 3 points.

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Plenty of folks will be sorting through the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (due Thursday morning) for clues about where USDA sees crop yield and production at this point.

Allendale Inc. projects the USDA number for corn production at 13.90 billion bu. Based on its own Nationwide Yield Survey, Allendale projects production at 13.78 billion bu., with a yield of 167.71 bu./acre.

As for soybeans, Allendale projects yield at 46.13 bu./acre for production of 3.50 billion bu. They expect USDA to come out with an estimate of 3.68 billion bu.

In the meantime, corn crop condition lost ground last week, according to the most recent Crop Progress report for the week ending Sept. 8.

89% of corn was at the dough stage, which was 10% less than last year and 8% less than average. 55% was dented, which was 29% less than last year and 22% less than the average. 11% was mature, compared to 33% a year earlier and 24% for the five-year average. 55% was in Good (45%) or Excellent (10%) condition, which was 3% less than the previous week and 13% less than last year. 14% was in Poor (10%) or Very Poor condition (4%), which was 2% more than a year earlier.

92% of soybeans were setting pods, which was 8% less than the previous year and 7% less than the average. 55% were rated in Good (45%) or Excellent (10%) condition, the same as a week earlier, but 13% less than a year ago. 12% were in Poor (9%) or Very Poor (3%) condition, which was 2% more than a year earlier.

71% of spring wheat was harvested, which was 21% less than last year and 16% less than average.

97% of sorghum was headed, which was 2% less than the previous year and 1% less than the average. 65% was coloring, compared to 78% for the prior year and 74% for average. 27% was mature, which was 6% less than last year and 10% less than average. 22% was harvested, which was 2% less than last year and the average. 68% was in Good (53%) or Excellent (15%) condition, which was 15% more than a year earlier. 6% was rated as Poor (5%) or Very Poor (1%), compared to 17% last year.

51% of the nation’s pasture and range was rated in Good (43%) or Excellent (8%) condition, compared to 53% a week earlier and 43% last year. 20% was rated as Poor (14%) or Very Poor (6%), compared to 26% a year earlier.

Although there was no negotiated cash fed cattle trade reported by USDA through Monday afternoon, other sources reported live trade breaking out in various regions at $96-$97/cwt., another step lower from last week’s slide.

The average 5-area direct price for steers last week was $3.86 lower on a live basis at $101.73/cwt., according to USDA. The average dressed steer price was $5.69 lower at $165.83.

After attempts for stability early in the session, Live Cattle futures lost ground, while Feeder Cattle remained under pressure.

Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 39¢ lower (six contracts) to an average of 13¢ higher, with heavy trade and expanding open interest.

Except for 52¢ and 20¢ lower on either end of the board, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.15 lower.

Wholesale beef values were steady to weak on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 36¢ lower Monday afternoon at $226.95/cwt. Select was 2¢ lower at $201.92.

Corn futures closed 1¢ lower through Mar ’20 and then mostly fractionally higher. 

Soybean futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally higher across the front half of the board and then mostly 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 15 points.

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As consumers seek to save time, convenience stores around the world provide a rapidly growing opportunity for U.S. beef and pork exports, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Specifically, according to a 2019 report by Euromonitor, per capita spending on foodservice products at convenience stores increased 14% worldwide between 2013 and 2018 and is projected to increase another 11% by 2023. South Korea led the way, with a 142% increase in per capita convenience store foodservice spending from 2013 to 2018; another 47% increase is projected by 2023.

Japan, Taiwan, the ASEAN region and Mexico are other fast-growing markets identified by Euromonitor, while a USDA report suggests China’s convenience store chains, which have historically focused on lower-priced processed foods, are beginning to expand premium and imported food offerings. This trend is likely to continue as younger Chinese consumers shift away from traditional retail outlets.

The USMEF uses funding from the USDA Market Access Program (MAP), the Beef Checkoff Program and the National Pork Board to promote U.S. beef and pork—especially processed beef and pork items, but also raw material for further processing—as the centerpiece of convenience store fare in several international markets.

“Just as important as promoting existing products, we are developing brand new ideas for packaged meals and protein snack items featuring U.S. beef and pork that fit well with consumer trends in each individual market,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “USMEF recognizes the scope of this opportunity and the enormous demand that is driving it. As the convenience store sector has taken off in various parts of the world, suppliers realize they need products to help meet the demand for these meat snacks and packaged meals. The trend is toward high-quality meat, and that is definitely an advantage for U.S. beef and pork.”

Live sales ended up $3 lower in the Southern Plains last week at $100/cwt., $4-$6 lower in Nebraska at mostly $100 and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $102-$107. Dressed sales were $9-$10 lower in Nebraska at $160-$166; $7-$9 lower in the western Corn Belt at $163-$166.

Cattle futures, especially Live Cattle closed sharply lower Friday, with pressure including the softer fed cattle prices, declining wholesale beef values and mounting technical pressure.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.12 lower in the front four contracts (including limit down in spot Oct) and then an average of 68¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 94¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were lower on light demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.11 lower Friday afternoon at $227.31/cwt. Select was $2.53 lower at $201.94.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower through Dec ’20 and then mostly 1¢ lower. 

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower through May ’20 and then mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Friday, fading a weaker than expected outlook for national employment.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 130,000 in August, according to the Employment Situation Summary from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased 11¢ to $28.11. Average hourly earnings are up 3.2% over the last 12 months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 69 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 13 points.

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All else being equal, cattle producers face more price pressure for at least another year before cyclical transition offers support, according to the U.S. Baseline Outlook Report Update issued by the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri (MU).

For price perspective between FAPRI’s annual U.S. Baseline Outlook released in the spring and the recent update, see the tables below.

“Though pasture and range conditions have been much improved this spring and summer relative to previous years, cow-calf returns have reached the lowest level in a decade as feeder steer prices decline with cattle on feed numbers continuing to exceed year-ago levels,” say MU agricultural economists, Scott Brown and Daniel Madison, in the companion update for livestock and dairy markets. “Fed steer prices had been steady for most of the first half of the year, with recent weakness noted, due to the Aug. 9 fire at a Tyson cattle processing plant in Kansas. This has strained already tight beef packing capacity, resulting in higher beef prices along with depressed demand for cattle. Cattle and beef prices will remain under pressure as beef production grows through 2020. Good domestic demand for beef, particularly higher-quality product, continues to prevent even larger price declines.”

In the FAPRI Update, the projected 5-area direct average fed steer price for this year is $116.58/cwt. It drops to $113.64 next year, then begins to gain traction in 2022.

As for feeder prices, basis OKC and 600-650 lbs. FAPRI projects this year’s average price at $153.61 this year, $145.28 next year and $149.66 in 2021.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained largely undeveloped through Wednesday afternoon. The early tone was bearish, though, with AMS reporting early dressed sales in Nebraska $3-$8 lower at $167, on light trade and moderate demand.

Fat cattle auctions were mixed.

For instance, there was no trend, but demand was good and trade active at Tama, IA, where Choice 2-4 steers weighing an average of 1,371 lbs. brought $110.21/cwt.

On the other hand, the AMS reporter at Sioux Falls Regional said demand was light and activity slow—few packer buyers present—for the high quality grading steers and heifers, offered in a fair weighing condition. All told, 434 head of Ch 2-3 steers weighing an average of 1,431 brought $101.34.

Lower Corn futures continued to support Feeder Cattle futures Wednesday, while apparently continued queasiness over demand and supply-side logistics helped apply some pressure to front-month Live Cattle.

Live Cattle futures closed mixed but mostly higher, from 2¢ to 75¢ lower in three contracts to an average of 47¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.16 higher.

Wholesale beef values were steady on Choice and sharply lower on Select with light demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 1¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $230.65/cwt. Select was $2.67 lower at $208.95.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower through May ‘20 and then mostly fractionally mixed.

Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 7¢ higher through Aug ’20 and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Wednesday, basically erasing losses from the previous session. Primary support, according to many analysts, was the easing of political tensions in Hong Kong, which is thought to be favorable for U.S.-China trade talks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 237 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 102 points.

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Less cow slaughter and lighter dressed cow weights continue to boost cull cow prices, says David Anderson, Extension livestock economist at Texas A&M University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“Prices in the Southern Plains reached their high of the year, so far, at $54.36/cwt. at the end of August,” Anderson says. “That was 12.5% higher than a year ago. There is some good reason to think that prices may continue to be above a year ago.”

After increased dairy slaughter drove total cattle slaughter to multi-decade highs during the first few months of the year, Anderson explains it moderated and was 1% less year-to-year over the last month.

Likewise, he points out beef cow slaughter was 1% less year over year for the last two months.

“Beef cow culling typically hits its seasonal peak for the year in the Fall. It’s likely some earlier culling this year may have pulled some cows ahead into slaughter,” Anderson says. “Growing dry conditions in the Southern Plains have likely not added to culling numbers, yet.”

Total cow slaughter was 0.5% less over the last two months, compared to the same time last year, according to Anderson.

At the same time, he explains cow dressed weights averaged 7.6 lbs. less so far in 2019, compared to a year earlier.

“So, not only have fewer gone to market, but they have weighed less, as well,” Anderson says. “The overall effect has been less cow beef production in recent weeks, supporting the 90% lean fresh beef price, the wholesale cutout value, and the cull cow price.”

When USDA finished tallying last week’s negotiated cash fed cattle trade, live sales ended up $3 lower in the Southern Plains at $103/cwt., $2-$3 lower in Nebraska at $104-$106 and mostly $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $107-$109. Dressed trade was mainly $3-$5 lower at $170-$175.

The 5-area direct average steer price last week was $105.59/cwt. on a live basis, which was $1.53 lower than the previous week. The average dressed steer price of $171.52 was down $3.82.

Lower Corn futures helped Feeder Cattle bounce higher to start the week, recovering about half the losses from the previous session. That, along with oversold conditions and surging Lean Hogs helped Live Cattle edge higher.

Except for unchanged in Apr and 2¢ lower in the back contract, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 25¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 86¢ higher (35¢ higher to $1.75 higher in spot Sep).

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.11 lower Tuesday afternoon at $230.66/cwt. Select was 65¢ lower at $211.62.

Corn futures closed 7¢ to 8¢ lower through Jul ‘20 and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally mixed to mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Monday, on weak manufacturing data and the beginning of new tariffs between the U.S. and China.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in August, for the first time in three years, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. Specifically, the August Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of 49.1% was 2.1% lower month to month.

“Comments from the panel reflect a notable decrease in business confidence. August saw the end of the PMI expansion that spanned 35 months, with steady expansion softening over the last four months,” says Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Respondents expressed slightly more concern about U.S.-China trade turbulence, but trade remains the most significant issue, indicated by the strong contraction in new export orders. Respondents continued to note supply chain adjustments as a result of moving manufacturing from China. Overall, sentiment this month declined and reached its lowest level in 2019.” 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 285 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 20 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 88 points.

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Agricultural producer sentiment weakened significantly in August, according to the most recent Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The August reading of 124 was down 29 points from the previous month.

Farmers’ expectations for both current and future economic conditions also tumbled. Compared to a month earlier, the Index of Current Conditions dropped 19 points and the Index of Future Expectations dropped 34 points.

“Sharp declines in most commodity prices during July and early August weighed heavily on farmer sentiment,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “While USDA’s announcement of the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payment rates did help alleviate concerns about 2019 income for many farmers, the big decline in the Index of Future Expectations indicates farmers are becoming more concerned about the future for U.S. agriculture and their farms.”

In late July, USDA announced per-planted-acre payment rates by county for the 2019 MFP. The Ag Economy Barometer survey asked participants to what degree the $16 billion in MFP payments to U.S. farmers relieves their concerns about the impact of tariffs on their 2019 farm income.

More than two-thirds (71%) of respondents feel the 2019 MFP program will, “completely or somewhat relieve,” their concerns about tariffs’ impact on 2019 farm income. However, nearly three out of 10 respondents (29%) said the payments did nothing to relieve their concerns, indicating that a significant minority of farmers think the MFP payments fall short of making up for income losses stemming from ongoing tariff battles.

The barometer is based on a mid-month survey of 400 agricultural producers across the U.S. It was conducted Aug. 12-20, with nearly all of the responses collected following USDA’s release of the Aug. 12 Crop Production report.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ended up $3/cwt. lower in the Southern Plains last week at $103/cwt. Live trades were $2-$3 lower in Nebraska at $104-$106 and steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $105-$110. Dressed sales in Nebraska were $6-$10 lower at $165-$172; $3-$7 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $171.

The weaker cash outlook, stronger U.S. dollar and continued uncertainty from the Tyson fire helped pressure Cattle futures to end the week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 90¢ lower.

Not counting newly hatched away-Aug, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.76 lower.

Wholesale beef values were weak on light to moderate demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 42¢ lower Friday afternoon at $231.77/cwt. Select was 51¢ lower at $212.27.

Corn futures closed mixed, from 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally mixed.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed and little changed Friday, as investors closed out the month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 41 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was down 10 points.

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“The U.S. labor market—with 3.7% unemployment in August—and continued consumer confidence are providing a floor to an otherwise cooling economy,” say analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service, in the quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, released Friday.

Compared to the previous quarter, the report revised U.S. per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) down to 1.6% for this year and down to 1.3% next year.

“Per capita world GDP is expected to grow 1.6% in 2020, up slightly from 1.5% in 2019, according to the report. “This quarter’s projected per capita GDP growth for 2019 is down 25% from last quarter’s projection, and this quarter’s projection for 2020 is 15% lower. The U.S.-China trade conflict, Brexit, and the developing trade dispute between Japan and South Korea are some of the key uncertainties slowing global trade and investment and pushing forecasts for economic growth lower.”

Even so, U.S. agricultural exports are projected to reach $137.0 billion next year, up $2.5 billion from the revised forecast for fiscal year (FY) 2019; driven primarily by higher exports of pork, beef, soybeans, and horticultural products.

“Beef and veal exports are forecast at $7.8 billion (up $300 million from FY 2019) on higher volumes and unit values,” say analysts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices sank in the North on Thursday.

In Nebraska, dressed sales were at $165-$172/cwt., which was $6-$10 lower than the bulk of last week’s light test. Early live sales for the week are at $106, which is $1-$2 lower.

Dressed sales in the western Corn Belt were at $171, which was $3-$7 lower than last week. For the week so far, live sales are at $109, which is $1 less than last week.

Surging Lean Hog futures—perhaps tied in part, to hopeful rhetoric surrounding trade talks with China—helped lift Cattle futures Thursday, although they closed off of session highs.

Except for 20¢ lower in the back contract, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 31¢ higher.

Other than unchanged in expiring Aug and 2¢ lower in March, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 22¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were lower on Choice and higher on Select with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 77¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $232.19/cwt. Select was 97¢ higher at $212.78.

After 3¢ lower in spot Sep, Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Thursday, with renewed optimism surrounding trade talks between the U.S. and China. That was based on reports suggesting China would prefer to avoid escalating trade tensions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 326 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 116 points.

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“While the impacts of the Tyson plant fire will likely diminish relatively quickly in the next few weeks, feeder cattle markets are still nervous and defensive about the corn market situation, increasingly shaky macroeconomic conditions and continued global economic turmoil,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Expectations about the 2019 corn crop vary widely, as do the emotions about the crop situation. The latest private crop tour estimates suggest a significantly lower corn yield than current USDA estimates and acres harvested remains an unknown. One thing that seems clear is that much of the corn crop is sharply delayed in maturity. The risk associated with an early or even normal frost in the Corn Belt is high.”

Peel made those comments relative to running several winter stocker budgets, which yielded a wide range of results from decent profit to little or no return.

“The uncertainty and volatility impacting feeder cattle markets is likely to continue this fall and winter. This increases the risks of winter stocker production but may also present short term opportunities for either buying or selling cattle or both,” Peel says. “The best advice at this point is to evaluate and reevaluate possibilities frequently and remain as nimble as possible both offensively and defensively.”