Daily Market Highlights

Fed cattle markets were mixed on Wednesday.

Country trade in Kansas was $1 lower than last week on a live basis at $111/cwt., on moderate trade and demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Likewise, $111 bought the 326 head offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction: 243 head for delivery at 1-9 days and 83 head for delivery at 1-17 days.

At fat auctions in the north, though, prices were higher.

Slaughter steers and heifers sold fully $1 higher at Sioux Falls Regional in South Dakota: $115.35/cwt. for Ch 2-3 steers at an average of 1,400 lbs.

At the fat auction in Tama, Iowa Ch 2-4 steers sold $3.50-$4.00 higher at $118.50 and an average weight of 1,338 lbs. Choice heifers sold $3 higher.

Feeder Cattle led Cattle futures lower Wednesday, perhaps with some positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 52¢lower.

After 47¢ lower in spot Aug, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.12 lower.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 36¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $212.57/cwt. Select was 82¢ lower at $188.34.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, on mixed quarterly earnings and ongoing concerns about unresolved trade issues with China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 115 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 19 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 37 points.

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Fed steer prices (5-area direct) declined 15% from the spring peak of $128.96/cwt. to $110.13 for the week ending June 30, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

As mentioned recently in Cattle Current, based on recent price data, USDA lowered the expected third-quarter price for fed steers by $3, from the previous month’s forecast to an average of $107. The fourth-quarter price was reduced $4 to $110.

“As the result of lower forecast fed cattle prices and higher feed prices relative to last year in in second-half 2019, feedlots will likely be less willing to bid up prices for feeder cattle,” ERS analysts say. “Based on recent price data, the third-quarter feeder steer price (Oklahoma City) was lowered by $2 to $143/cwt. and the fourth-quarter price forecast was lowered $1 from the prior month to $141.

As a result, this month’s annual price forecast for 2019 was $1 lower at $141. The 2020 annual price forecast was unchanged.”

Cattle futures closed lower Tuesday, with little in the way of fundamental news and perhaps some technical pressure.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 58¢ lower.

Grain markets continued to decline Tuesday, with positive crop weather news and the stronger U.S. dollar.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower though Jul ’20 and then fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 14¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were steady to weak on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 34¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $212.93/cwt. Select was 5¢ lower at $189.16.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged lower Tuesday, although the nascent quarterly earnings season is mostly positive thus far.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 23 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 35 points.

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“Feeder cattle prices are determined by several factors, with feed price and fed cattle price having the greatest impact,” explains Brenda Boetel, Extension agricultural economist at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Corn price has typically had an inverse relationship to both fed and feeder cattle prices. This means, as the price of corn increases, the price of feeder cattle decreases. This assumes that all other factors have remained constant, including other feeding costs, as well as fed cattle price.”

As corn price increases, the price premium declines for lighter feeder cattle weights versus heavier ones. Spun differently, the price slide narrows as corn price moves higher.

“This isn’t a new finding. What is new is that the decrease in these beef steer price differentials is at an increasing rate as weight increases, i.e., the premiums for lightweight cattle will decrease faster than has historically been found in economic studies,” Boetel says.

That was among the conclusions drawn from research conducted by Boetel last year with Lee Schultz, a peer at Iowa State University and with Kevin Dhuyvetter, cattle technical consultant with Elanco Animal Health. The study—in the Western Economics Forum—included 66,640 head of beef feeder steers and 59,005 head of dairy feeders.

“Although cattle producers can’t affect the corn price, understanding how changing corn price affects price slides can aid in management and marketing decisions,” Boetel says.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ended up $2-$3 higher in the Southern Plains last week at $111-$112/cwt. Live sales were steady to either side of even in Nebraska at mostly $112-$114, but $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $115. Dressed trade was $2-$5 higher at $182-$185.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Monday, although Feeder Cattle received some support from sharply lower grain futures prices.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from 20¢ lower to 10¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 19¢ higher.

Grain markets dove lower Monday with likely profit taking, as well as more favorable weather.

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 13¢ lower though Jul ’20 and then fractionally lower to 6¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 9¢ to 11¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were firm on Choice and weak on Select with light to moderate demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 47¢ higher Monday afternoon at $213.27/cwt. Select was 39¢ lower at $189.21.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Monday, on the cusp of quarterly earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 27 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 14 points.

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“Uncertainty continues to plague cattle markets with broader trade and political uncertainty augmented by unknown and evolving feed market conditions,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Corn will no doubt be higher on a smaller crop this year but exactly how much higher and smaller remains an unknown.”

Undoubtedly, that uncertainty was part of the damper on a seasonal increase in feeder cattle prices, until last week. With the recent uptick, Peel says feeder markets may be set to increase seasonally over the month, on their way to a typical late-summer price peak.

Although the most recent trade data showed some improvement, Peel adds, “Domestic beef markets continue to struggle under relatively poor summer grilling weather thus far and struggling macroeconomic conditions. Ample supplies of meat are weighing more heavily on the market, as well. In particular, large pork supplies and the failure of anticipated Chinese demand for pork to materialize is pushing pork wholesale values lower, adding to beef wholesale price pressure.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were yet to be fully established through Friday afternoon, based on reports from USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), but the trend appeared decidedly higher. The Texas Cattle Feeders Association reported its members trading at $112/cwt., which was $3 more than the previous week. Although too few to trend, early dressed sales were $2-$5 higher at $182-$185 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 31¢ higher on Friday (7¢ to 65¢ higher), helped along by recent strength and what looked to be steady to higher cash fed prices for the week. 

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 83¢ lower, giving back some of the recent gains, under pressure from higher Grain futures prices. They traded and average of $3.11 higher week to week, though.

Grain markets largely shrugged off the previous day’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, given that projections were based on acres from the June 28 Acreage report, which common sense says will change. Between that and potential damage from hot and dry weather, following the interminable rains, grain futures surged on Friday.

After 1¢ higher in expiring spot Jul, Corn futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ higher though Jul ’20 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 14¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values continued to lose seasonal steam. Trade on Friday was  lower on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 97¢ lower Friday afternoon at $212.80/cwt. Select was $1.19 lower at $189.60.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Friday, apparently with lighter trade and follow-through rally support from expectations for a cut in interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 243 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 48 points.

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Lighter year-over-year carcass weights continue to underscore currentness, while also adding price support. For the week ending June 29, the average dressed steer weight was 854 lbs., which was the same as a week earlier but 11 lbs. lighter than the same week a year earlier, according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. The average dressed heifer weight was 1 lb. lighter than the previous week and 3 lbs. lighter than the previous year at 789 lbs.

“One might assume the higher prices (fed cattle) this week means the market has reached its summer low and that may be the case. However, the finished cattle market will continue to be pressured the next several weeks moving through July and August” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Thus, there is a good chance finished cattle prices yo-yo the next several weeks as packers and feedlots jockey for position.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was undeveloped through Thursday afternoon, but early sales in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt point to stronger trade this week. Although there were too few transactions to trend, early dressed sales in those regions were $2-$5 higher than last week at $182-$185. Early live sales in the western Corn Belt were $1-$2 higher at $114-$115.

Cattle futures drifted higher, awaiting more concrete cash direction.

Live Cattle futures closed from an average of 15¢ higher.

Other than 2¢ lower in the back two contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 42¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were steady to weak on light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 65¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $213.77/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $190.79.

Corn futures closed 6¢ to 13¢ higher though Jul ’20 and then 1¢ to 2¢ higher. That was despite what most would deem bearish news in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, led by health care stocks and overall optimism surrounding the previous day’s dovish comments by Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, regarding interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 227 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 6 points.

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Beef production for this year was forecast 75 million lbs. less to 27.13 billion lbs., in the latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). That’s based on lighter carcass weights and reduced third-quarter slaughter. Total beef production would still be 257 million lbs. more than last year.

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) also reduced projected fed cattle prices. The projected annual 5-area Direct fed steer price for this year was lowered by $1.50 to $115.50/cwt. The third-quarter average is forecast at $107. Projections are $110 in the fourth quarter and $124 in first quarter of 2020

Compared to the previous month, total projected red meat and poultry production for this year increased by 350 million lbs. to 104.52 billion lbs., with higher forecast pork and broiler production. That would be 2.172 billion lbs. more than last year.

Corn

Corn production for 2019-20 was projected 195 million bu. higher at 13.9 billion bu., based on increased planted and harvested areas from the June 28 Acreage report. That’s with yield unchanged at 166.0 bu./acre.

The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $3.70/bu.

In July, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will collect updated information on 2019 acres planted, and if the newly collected data justify any changes, NASS will publish updated acreage estimates in the August Crop Production report.

Soybeans

Soybean production for 2019-20 was projected at 3.85 billion bu., down 305 million bu., based on lower planted and harvested area in the June 28 Acreage report and on lower projected yields of 48.5 bu./acre. Beginning and ending stocks were lowered, as well.

The 2019-20 season-average price for soybeans was forecast at $8.40/bu., up 15¢ from the previous month. Soybean meal prices were forecast $5 higher at $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price forecast was unchanged at 29.5¢/lb.

Wheat

Forecast 2019-20 U.S. wheat production was raised 18 million bu. to 1,921 million. The all wheat yield was forecast 1.3 bu./acre higher at 50.0 bu. However, anticipated domestic use increased on higher feed and residual use. Ending stocks were projected 72 million bu. lower.

The projected season-average farm price for wheat is $5.20/bu., up 10¢ from the previous month.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was undeveloped through Wednesday afternoon, although there were some steady-money bids reported in the north.

Likewise, there were no sales in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction, which had just 423 head on offer.

Prices were higher at some live fat auctions, though. Ch 2-3 steers weighing an average of 1,385 lbs. brought an average of $113.41/cwt. at Sioux Falls Regional in South Dakota. At Tama, IA, Ch 2-4 steers brought $114.90 at 1,312 lbs.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, with more support in the deferred months as traders repositioned following the previous session’s sharp gains.

Live Cattle futures closed from an average of 26¢ lower across the front half of the board to an average of 7¢ higher across the back half.

Feeder Cattle futures closed from an average of 27¢ lower across the front half of the board to an average of 52¢ higher across the back half, except for unchanged in Jan. 

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 31¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $214.42/cwt. Select was $1.20 lower at $190.89.

Corn futures closed mainly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

Plenty of folks will be watching for Thursday’s monthly World agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, buoyed by broad interpretation of Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress meaning that a cut to interest rates is on the near horizon.

In prepared testimony to the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services, Powell explained:

“Our baseline outlook is for economic growth to remain solid, labor markets to stay strong, and inflation to move back up over time to the Committee’s 2% objective. However, uncertainties about the outlook have increased in recent months. In particular, economic momentum appears to have slowed in some major foreign economies, and that weakness could affect the U.S. economy. Moreover, a number of government policy issues have yet to be resolved, including trade developments, the federal debt ceiling, and Brexit. And there is a risk that weak inflation will be even more persistent than we currently anticipate. We are carefully monitoring these developments, and we will continue to assess their implications for the U.S economic outlook and inflation…

“In our June meeting statement, we indicated that, in light of increased uncertainties about the economic outlook and muted inflation pressures, we would closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would act as appropriate to sustain the expansion. Many FOMC participants saw that the case for a somewhat more accommodative monetary policy had strengthened. Since then, based on incoming data and other developments, it appears that uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook. Inflation pressures remain muted…”

Crude Oil futures (WTI-CME) rallied $2.43 to $2.60 higher for the remaining 2019 contracts on a heavier domestic inventory draw than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 76 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 60 points.

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“Digital purchasing will accelerate in food retailing, just as it has in other retail sectors where we see much higher rates of online purchases,” says David Portalatin, food industry advisor for the NPD group (NPD) and author of Eating Patterns in America. “Still, the brick and mortar grocery store will always be a necessary means of acquiring foods, especially those where consumers place a premium on their sensory assessment to ensure quality, like meats, fruits and vegetables. This gives forward thinking retailers and their vendor partners an opportunity to truly create an omnichannel experience for the consumer and revolutionize the way we think about grocery merchandising.”

According to NPD, 20% of U.S. consumers, ages 18 and above—about 51 million consumers—shopped online for groceries, within 30 days, for the quarter ending February this year. That was 3% more than the quarter ending in November of last year. The figures include consumers ordering online for delivery or in-store pick-up.

Of those who shop online for groceries from brick and mortar or pure-play online grocers, 16% order their food and beverages for delivery. The option to order online and pick-up in store, also known as click-and-collect or BOPUS (buy online pickup in store) is favored by 11% of online grocery shoppers. Seven percent of these shoppers mix it up and do both, according to NPD’s National Eating Trends® Omnichannel Scorecard.

Unsurprisingly, negotiated cash fed cattle trade was yet to develop through Tuesday afternoon.

Cattle futures charged higher, though, fueled by limit-up gains in Lean Hog futures and technical support. Feeder Cattle were helped further by lower Corn futures.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.48 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.61 higher ($2.65 higher at the back to $4.37 higher toward the front). 

Wholesale beef values were sharply lower on light demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.73 lower Tuesday afternoon at $214.73/cwt. Select was $2.32 lower at $192.09.

Corn futures closed mainly 5¢ to 6¢ lower through Jul ‘20, and then 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Tech stocks helped lead major U.S. financial indices to a narrowly mixed close on Tuesday. One way or the other, testimony from Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell—to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday—will likely provide a spark. Traders will be looking for clues as to whether or not and when the Fed will cut interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 22 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 43 points.

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“The nearby, and deferred, contracts for both livestock products (Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures) appear to have found a bottom. This strong upward movement appears to be supported by both fundamental and technical information,” says Elliott Dennis, an Extension livestock economist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. In the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets, he explains, “Bottoming prices appears to have been driven by projected grain supplies, weather-driven pasture conditions, and wholesale meat demand.”

With that said, in his recent market comments, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee notes the narrow price range between summer and fall Feeder Cattle futures contracts; about 80¢.

“The lack of a price spread means the market is offering an incentive to keep adding weight to cattle if a person can do it fairly inexpensively,” Griffith explains. “Alternatively, if weight cannot be added inexpensively, then the market is not offering much of an incentive. In reality, the feeder cattle market is very stale and can make marketing decisions more difficult than they are naturally. From a stocker operator standpoint, it may be more advantageous to cut one’s losses on the current set of cattle and start a new group…”

There certainly appears to be ample grazing opportunity, with 68% of the nation’s pasture and range rated in Good or Excellent condition as of July 7, according to the most recent USDA Crop progress report. That’s 17% more than last year. Only 8% was rated as Poor or Very Poor, compared to 21% a year earlier.

“High quality pastures should incentivize cow-calf and stockers to retain cattle longer,” Dennis says. “Likewise, with the recent USDA announcement waiving the Nov. 1 grazing requirement on prevent planting acres, the summer grazing window may extend much longer this year. Both signals will likely shift how and when feeder cattle are placed in feedlots. If feedlot placements slow then this should dampen the seasonally low fall feeder cattle prices.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ended up steady in the Southern Plains last week at $109/cwt. on a live basis. Prices were $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $113.00-$113.50 and at $112-$114 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was steady to $2 higher at $180.

Likewise, the 5-area direct weekly average price for steers was $1.11 higher week to week on Monday at $111.24/cwt. on a live basis. Live heifers traded $1.25 higher at $110.82.

Cattle futures closed mainly narrowly mixed on Monday after early follow through support.

Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 66¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 23¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed from 17¢ lower to 7¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were steady to weak on moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 21¢ lower Monday afternoon at $217.46/cwt. Select was 39¢ lower at $194.41.

Corn futures closed mixed, from fractionally higher to 4¢ higher through Jul ‘20, and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 115 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 63 points.

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U.S. beef exports continue to reflect resilience in the face of ongoing trade barriers, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

U.S. beef exports in May were steady year-over-year in volume at 117,541 metric tons (mt), but 1% more in value at $727.6 million—the second-highest on record.

For January through May, beef exports were 3% below last year’s record pace in volume (530,088 mt) but only slightly lower in value at $3.3 billion.

Beef export value per head of fed slaughter averaged $312.85 in May, down slightly from a year ago. For January through May, beef export value averaged $309.33 per head, down 3%.

Korea and Taiwan Set the Pace

Beef exports to South Korea remained on a record pace in May, climbing 11% to 23,004 mt and 13% in value to $165 million. January-May exports to Korea were 11% above last year in volume (101,761 mt) and 15% higher in value ($743.5 million).

Beef exports to Taiwan also strengthened for the second straight month at 5,873 mt in May (up 27% from a year ago), valued at $52.6 million (up 28%). Through May, exports to Taiwan were 11% above last year’s record pace in volume (24,478 mt) and 4% higher in value ($218.2 million).

May export volume to leading market Japan also bounced back, despite the U.S. disadvantage borne by the lack of a trade agreement with that nation.

According to USMEF, all of U.S. pork and beef’s major competitors gained tariff relief in Japan this year through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the economic partnership agreement between Japan and the European Union.

“The explosive growth U.S. beef has achieved in Korea and Taiwan is a testament to the quality of the product and the outstanding customer base the U.S. industry has established over the years,” explains Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “That same dynamic is present in Japan, on an even larger scale. But for Japan to remain in the ‘strong growth’ column, it is essential that we have market access comparable to our key competitors.”

Pork Exports Show Signs of Renewed Strength

U.S. pork exports in May were also steady with the previous year at 217,999 mt. Value was 1% higher at 567.8 million—the highest monthly value total since April 2018. For January through May, however, pork exports were 4% below last year in volume (1.035 million mt) and 10% less in value at $2.57 billion.

Although pork exports to Mexico remained slow—the 20% retaliatory duty on most U.S. pork entering that nation wasn’t removed until May 20—exports to China/Hong Kong rebounded, despite the ongoing 50% retaliatory duty on U.S. pork going to China. U.S. pork exports to the region were 33% more year over year for volume (45,422 mt) and 5% more in value at $84 million. Through the first five months of 2019, though, exports to the region trailed last year by 7% in volume (173,642 mt) and 25% in value ($326 million).

“May export results for U.S. pork were very encouraging, especially the renewed momentum in Japan and China/Hong Kong,” Halstrom says. “When exports to Mexico get back on track and trade talks with Japan and China show progress, this will be a very welcome lift for the U.S. pork industry.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle traded ended up steady in the Southern Plains at $109/cwt. on a live basis. It was $1-$2 higher at $113.00-$113.50 in Nebraska and at $112-$114 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was steady to $2 higher at $180.

Through Thursday, the weighted average 5-Area Direct price for steers was 59¢ higher than the prior week at $111.17/cwt. on a live basis. The dressed price was 74¢ higher at $180.10.

Cattle futures closed sharply higher Friday, helped along by sluggish trade and higher cash fed cattle prices in the North.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.18 higher (67¢ to $1.77 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.41 higher ($1.10 to $2.25 higher in spot Aug).

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.58 lower Friday afternoon at $217.67/cwt. Select was 56¢ lower at $194.80.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through Jul ‘20, and then mostly unchanged to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 14¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday. Popular thinking ascribed the pressure to a positive monthly employment report, which might make the Fed more reticent to cut interest rates.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 224,000 in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary. The unemployment rate was little changed at 3.7%.

Average hourly earnings in June of $27.90 was 6¢ more than the previous month. Average hourly earnings increased 3.1% over the past 12 months.

Earlier in the week, ADP National Employment report showed private sector, non-farm employment increasing by 102,000 in June, significantly less than the trade expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 43 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 8 points.

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The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index  (RMI) rose 4.7 points in June to 53.2. That’s the sixth month out of seven the index was above growth neutral. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, and an RMI below the growth neutral threshold. 50.0, indicating negative growth for the month.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy: Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

“Higher agriculture commodity prices and rebuilding from recent floods boosted the Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for the month. Furthermore, despite the negatives from the trade war, 69.4% of bankers support either raising, or continuing current tariffs,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. 

At the same time, more than one in four bank CEOs reported rising loan defaults due to farmer financial woes. Almost half of bankers reported that due to crisis-level farm income, farmers in their area have responded by selling the farm, or otherwise leaving the farm.

One of the notable quotes came from Jeff Bonnett, president of Havana National Bank in Havana, IL, who said there are estimates that 15-20 million corn acres were not planted nationwide.

“Based upon this information, corn prices should be in the range of $5.75 to $6.00/bu., or more. What are we missing? Will the true corn acres planted be revealed after the required certification through FSA due by July 15th?”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade developed Wednesday on moderate trade and demand. Live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $109/cwt., steady to $1.50 higher in Nebraska at $111-$113 and $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $112-$113. Although too few to trend, early dressed sales were steady to higher at $178-$180.

Likewise, 53 Kansas heifers sold for a weighted average price of $109 (1-17 day delivery) in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction. That was out of an offering of 392 head.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ higher, from 40¢ higher at the back to $1.35 higher in spot Aug.

Feeder Cattle futures closed sharply lower, though, beaten down by light trade and the surge in grain futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.52 lower.

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.22 lower Wednesday afternoon at $219.25/cwt. Select was 63¢ lower at $195.36.

Corn futures closed mostly 12¢ to 19¢ higher through Jul ‘20, and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 10¢ higher though Aug ’20 and then mostly 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Wednesday—record high for the DJIA and NASDAQ—as investors seemed to think weaker labor data will hasten the Fed’s decision to cut rates.

Private sector, non-farm employment increased by 102,000 in June, according to the closely watched ADP National Employment report. That was about 24% less than the trade expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 22 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 61 points.

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“Financial stress for many in agriculture continues to build amid unprecedented uncertainty from trade disputes and weather disasters,” say analysts with CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division (KED), in that organization’s Quarterly U.S. Economic Rural Review. “Nearly all sectors of agriculture were affected last quarter by the inundation of spring rains that kept farmers out of fields throughout the U.S. The amount of acreage lost to prevented planting will remain the major unknown in the months ahead for ag commodities markets.”

In fact, the KED folks say elevated corn prices could alter the modest beef cow herd growth previously expected.

On the other side of the ledger, U.S. beef exports and other meat exports could benefit from African Swine Fever in Southeast Asia.

“An expected decline in Chinese pork production will spur a surge of beef, pork, and chicken imports into China as it tries to fill a shortfall in animal protein supply that no single pork-producing country will be able to fill,” say KED analysts.

Among other highlights from the KED Quarterly Review:

Global economic development continues to slide as tariffs drag on global trade and manufacturing.

Despite domestic GDP growth of 3.1% in the first quarter, the pace of investment spending, manufacturing, and demand for capital goods have eased in recent months, and the slowdown trend is widely expected to persist through the remainder of the year.