Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures closed lower Friday with likely profit taking but were higher week to week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ lower, from 12¢ lower at the back to $1.00 lower toward the front. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 82¢ lower. 

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.15 higher (40¢ to $2.07 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.23 higher during the same period.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate to good demand in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $10 higher at $335-$345/cwt., in a light test. There were a few FOB live trades at $213, but too few to trend; prices in the region the previous week were $212-$215.

Trade was light on moderate demand in Kansas and the western Corn Belt. There were a few live FOB trades in Kansas at $209, but too few to trend. Prices the previous week were $210 in Kansas and $212-$215 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $335.

In the Texas Panhandle, trade was mostly inactive on light demand. FOB live prices the previous week were $210.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.90 lower Friday afternoon at $332.82/cwt. Select was 76¢ lower at $318.68. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.91 higher and Select was $9.04 higher with a substantial increase in cattle slaughter.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 609,000 head was 49,000 head more than the previous week and 27,000 head more than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 7.3 million head was 423,000 head fewer (-5.5%) than the same period a year ago. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 6.4 billion pounds was 1.1 million pounds less (-1.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday, as traders positioned head of Monday’s USDA Planting Intensions and Grain Stocks reports.

Corn futures were mostly 1¢ lower, except for nearby. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 14¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 8¢ higher through May ’26.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday, beneath the weight of tariff concerns, declining consumer confidence and sticky inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 715 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 112 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 481 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 56¢ to 73¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) recently reinstated the July Cattle report, which was suspended last year due to budget constraints. NASS also reinstated County Estimates for Crops and Livestock.

“The return of the July Cattle Report and County Estimates is a big win for cattle producers who utilize these reports to efficiently run their operations and make important marketing decisions,” says Tanner Beymer, executive director of government affairs for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. “These reports are not costly to produce and the amount they are used by the U.S. agriculture sector make them extremely cost-effective.”

Resumption of the July Cattle report is especially timely as the industry gauges when herd expansion begins and how fast.

David Anderson, Extension livestock economist at Texas A&M University notes the 17.8% decrease in February feedlot placements.

“It was the smallest placements for any month since June 2016 and the smallest for a February since 2015,” Anderson explains in a recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The exceptionally large placements in 2024 meant that this year’s decline was going to look big. The number of cattle going through the CME feeder cattle index during the month was down 39% compared to last year. Combined with fewer cattle from Mexico impacting Southern feedlots and the placements were lower. But placements were small enough to begin some thinking about whether this might be the beginning of placements indicated herd rebuilding given that they were the fewest since the last herd rebuilding in 2015. It’s probably too early to tell. The data on the number of heifers on feed in the next report might give us some better evidence.”

Cattle futures rose Thursday, supported by recent wholesale beef price strength and perhaps speculation that cattle feeders can push cash fed cattle prices higher again this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.96 higher across a broad range of 60¢ higher at the back to $3.12 higher toward the front.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.63 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $210 in the Southern Plains and $212-$215 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $335.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.58 lower Thursday afternoon at $335.72/cwt. Select was $2.91 higher at $319.44.

Grain and Soybean were mixed Thursday. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. However, Soybean futures were 13¢ to 14¢ higher, likely supported by expectations of significantly lower planting intentions in Monday’s much-anticipated USDA report.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Thursday, pressured by new U.S. tariffs on auto imports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 155 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 94 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 17¢ to 21¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Higher fed cattle prices and lower value of gain improved forecast net returns in the latest Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns. Keep in mind the projections represent a cash basis without price risk management.

Projected net returns for fed steers are $229.19 per head in March with a feedlot cost of gain of $106.09/cwt. For April through August, returns range between $168.16 and $238.41 with feedlot cost of gain ranging between $102.33 and $105.99.

For fed heifers, projected net returns in March are $203.03 per head with a feedlot cost of gain of $114.62/cwt. For April through August, returns range between $138.71 and $230.77 with feedlot cost of gain ranging between $110.85 and $113.21.

Cattle futures mostly gained Wednesday, helped along by bullish Choice wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 39¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.25 higher, except for 15¢ lower in waning Mar. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on very light demand in the western Corn Belt through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few FOB live trades at $213/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on very light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $210 in the Southern Plains and $212-$215 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $335.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.11 higher Wednesday afternoon at $338.30/cwt. Select was $2.48 higher at $316.53.

Grain and Soybean were lower Wednesday with follow-through concerns including early-planting pressure, tariff wonderments and the upcoming USDA Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally mixed to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks and news of new U.S. tariffs on auto imports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 132 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 64 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 372 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to 94¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Feb. 28 were 6% less than the previous month and 2% less year over year, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were up 4% from the previous month but down 8% from last year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 1% less than the prior month and 5% less than the same time last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up 2% from the previous month but down 3% from a year earlier.

Cattle futures closed mostly a touch lower Tuesday but off of session lows as traders await this week’s cash fed cattle direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 33¢ lower, except for an average of 56¢ higher in the front two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 36¢ lower, except for 25¢ higher in spot Mar. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $210/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $212-$215 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $335.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.09 higher Tuesday afternoon at $335.19/cwt. Select was 47¢ higher at $324.05.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday. Apparently, pressure included increased trader wariness regarding the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) recent proposal to impose new, steep levies on Chinese-built and operated ocean carries arriving at U.S. ports, which would likely disrupt trade and decrease domestic price competitiveness in the global market.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally higher to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 4 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 9 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 83 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 5¢ to 7¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Challenges linger in the rural economy, based on the latest Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI). It rose 3.1 points month to month in March but remained below growth neutral for 18th time in the past 19 months.

The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. It’s based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

“The economic outlook for 2025 farm income remains weak according to bank CEOs. However, farm commodity prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability among a high share of producers,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Approximately 62.9% of bankers expect 2025 farm income to be lower than last year’s weak level. Only 3.7% of bank CEOs predict 2025 farm income to expand from 2024’s level.

“Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to push banker confidence lower,” Goss says.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Monday, following early-session strength supported by last week’s strong cash fed cattle prices and Friday’s friendly Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 42¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 23¢ lower, except for an average of 16¢ higher in the front two contracts.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $210/cwt. in the Southern Plains $212-$215 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $335.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $7.46 higher at $212.76. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $10.18 higher at $335.15.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.65 higher Monday afternoon at $327.10/cwt. Select was $3.96 higher at $313.58.

Turning to the grain complex, futures continued their mixed choppiness Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, apparently buoyed by White House rhetoric suggesting a potentially softer tariff stance.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 597 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 100 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 404 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 70¢ to 90¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Cattle export volume from Mexico to the U.S. is slowly recovering, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock specialist at Oklahoma State University. Shipments resumed in early-February following closure of the U.S. border since late November, due to New World Screwworm.

Peel provides perspective to trade volume over time and ongoing drought challenges facing Mexican cow-calf producers, in his weekly market comments.

“November and December typically account for over 22% of annual Mexican cattle shipments to the U.S., along with another 7.2% in January, but much of that was preempted by the border closure,” Peel says. “The drought and feed scarcity have made it very difficult and expensive to hold cattle waiting for access to the U.S. market. Some cattle have been rerouted into domestic Mexican markets.”

Peel explains 37.7% Mexican cattle imports into the U.S. last year were spayed heifers, compared to an average of 15.7% over the previous two decades. Since the border reopened, he says spayed heifers represent 42.2% of Mexican imports to the U.S., likely indicating further drought-forced liquidation of herds in northern Mexico.

Further, Peel points the requirement that heifers must be exported within 180 days after spaying.

“Total Mexican cattle exports to the U.S. are expected to be significantly lower year over year in 2025 due to the slow start to exports in the first quarter of the year, fewer heifers in the export mix, and the likelihood that total cattle numbers are down, meaning that there are simply less Mexican cattle available for export,” Peel says.

Listen to more of Peel’s insights here.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on very good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $7-$8 higher in the Southern Plains at $210/cwt. and $6-$9 higher in the North at $212-$215. Dressed delivered prices were $10 higher at $335.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday after early strength on likely week-end profit taking and positioning.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.58 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.20 lower ($1.87 lower at the front to $5.05 lower at the back).

Cattle futures should find some early-week support tied to the friendly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.15 lower Friday afternoon at $325.91/cwt. Select was 28¢ higher at $309.64.

Week to week on Friday, Choice was $7.64 higher and Select was $3.32 higher. Choice was up $11 over the past two weeks.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 560,000 head was 24,000 head less than the prior week and 33,000 head less than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 6.7 million head was 452,000 head less (-6.3%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 5.8 billion pounds was 143.3 million pounds less (-2.4%).

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed again Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Friday, amid volatile trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 32 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 92 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 9¢ to 21¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as friendly with fewer placements than expected.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, February placements of 1.6 million head were 336,000 head fewer (-17.7%) than the same month last year, which was 3.3% less than expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 37% went on feed weighing less than 699 lbs., 52% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 11% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

February marketings of 1.6 million head were 160,000 head fewer than the prior year (-8.9%), which was near pre-report estimates, but a touch less.

The March 1 feedlot inventory of 11.6 million head was 261,000 head fewer than a year earlier (-2.2%), which was also a touch softer than pre-report expectations.

Cattle futures extended gains Thursday, supported by recently higher wholesale beef values and the increasing likelihood of higher cash fed cattle prices for the week. Through mid-morning Friday, Cattle futures were lower ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report.

On Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.36 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 higher.

There was no AMS report for negotiated cash fed cattle prices Thursday afternoon. Through mid-morning Friday, there were reports of significantly higher week-to-week bids.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 7¢ higher through old-crop contracts and then mostly fractionally mixed. Front months were supported by strong weekly export demand.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ lower through away May and then fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 4¢ higher through near Sep and then fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed but lower Thursday, with continued pressure from tariff wonderment and economic recession fears.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 59 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 97¢ to $1.16 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were higher Wednesday, supported by surging wholesale beef values, firmer outside markets and possibly an eye toward Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Pre-report estimates are for February feedlot placements to be about 14% less year over year, February marketing to be down about 8% and the March 1 cattle on feed inventory to be down 2%.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.84 higher.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.29 higher Wednesday afternoon at $329.61/cwt. Select was 55¢ lower at $308.68.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures 8¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures 4¢ to 5¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, helped along by the Fed saying a couple more interest rate cuts are still on the table for this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 383 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 60 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 246 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 21¢ to 31¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Despite the anticipated year-over-year decline in cattle slaughter this year, heavier carcass weights will help push beef production close to last year’s level, according to analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service, in the March Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year,” ERS analysts say. They explain the increase is driven by heavier steer and heifer carcass weights, as well as the proportion fed steer and heifers in the slaughter mix.

Although the number of cattle on feed for more than 150 days Feb. 1 was about 3% less year over year, based on the February Cattle on Feed report, ERS analysts expect market-ready fed cattle supplies will increase amid slower packer production and cattle spending more time on feed.

As for the percentage of steers and heifers in the slaughter mix, ERS analysts note an increase. The percentage has averaged about 79% over the last decade, but they say it rose to 81% through the first 10 weeks of this year; the first time the percentage has eclipsed 80% since 2007.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Tuesday with pressure from outside markets and wonderment about this week’s cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from unchanged to 12¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 13¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 20¢ higher, except for 15¢ lower in the back contract.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.16 higher Tuesday afternoon at $323.32/cwt. Select was $1.33 higher at $309.23.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed again Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally mixed. Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures  were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 60 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 304 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 57¢ to 80¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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La Niña is ending and drought is expanding, according to the latest data.

For the week ending March 11, 43.6% of the nation was experiencing some degree of drought, compared to 22.3% a year earlier, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Painting with a finer brush, 7.5% of the nation was enduring extreme or exceptional drought, compared to 1.5% a year earlier.  38% of the nation’s cattle were in areas impacted by drought versus 18% a year earlier.

The U.S. Drought Monitor’s Seasonal Outlook through May indicated persistent drought and emerging drought across a wide swath of the country from the entire state of Texas and up through the Northern Plains, extending west to Nevada and down to Southern California.

In the meantime, odds favor La Niña ending and ENSO-neutral conditions emerging in the next month, according to the latest La Niña Advisory from NOAA’s National Weather Center.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, supported by last week’s bounce in cash fed cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.77 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.74 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $5-$6 higher in the Southern Plains at $202-$203/cwt. and $4-$6 higher in the North at $206/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $8-$10 higher in Nebraska at $325 and $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $325.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $5.02 higher at $205.30. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $8.54 higher at $324.97.

Choice boxed beef cutout value $2.89 higher Monday afternoon at $321.16/cwt. Select was $1.58 higher at $307.90.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures 18¢ to 19¢ higher with traders apparently adding premium. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to advance Monday in the wake of the recent selloff.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 353 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 54 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 35¢ to 52¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased projected feeder steer prices for this year for all quarters, compared to the previous month, in the March Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Prices were forecast at $273 in the first and second quarters, $274 in the third quarter and $279 in the fourth quarter for an annual average of $274.75. Prices are basis Med. and Lg. #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City.

“The combination of tight supplies of feeder cattle, the recently constrained pace of cattle imports from Mexico due to protocols to mitigate the spread of New World Screwworm, and uncertainty surrounding the terms of trade for cattle imported from Canada and Mexico are creating some volatility, pushing prices higher for U.S. feeders and stocker operations to secure their cattle needs,” say ERS analysts.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, USDA’s Economic Research Service lowered expectations for the five-area direct weighted average fed steer price in the first half of this year, compared to the previous month’s forecast, but left them unchanged for the second half, in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Specifically, prices were projected $3 lower in the first quarter at $202/cwt. and $2 lower in the second quarter at $198, based on recent prices. Prices were forecast at $198 in the third quarter and at $200 in the fourth quarter for an annual average price of $200, which was $1 lower than the previous month’s outlook.

Forecast beef production increased by 120 million pounds (0.5%) to 26.7 billion pounds with heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter. This year’s projected beef production would be 303 million pounds less (-1.1%) than last year.