Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures continued higher Wednesday, helped along by another day of higher wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.19 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.99 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $249/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mainly $247-$248 in Nebraska and $245-$247 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $388.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.80 higher Wednesday afternoon at $379.23/cwt. Select was $1.06 higher at $367.07.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Wednesday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower again on further profit taking. Soybean futures were mostly 6¢ to 10¢ higher on continued optimism about trade talks with China. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rose Wednesday, once again led by tech stocks.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 307 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 288 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 5¢ to 11¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures firmed and crept higher Tuesday without the previous day’s pressure from outside markets and supported by higher wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 36¢ higher, except for 7¢ lower in near Apr. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 59¢ higher, except for an average of 18¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $249/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mainly $247-$248 in Nebraska and $245-$247 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $388.

Choice wholesale values surged higher, perhaps with buyers positioning against the potential JBS strike.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.21 higher Tuesday afternoon at $377.43/cwt. Select was $1.70 higher at $366.01.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Tuesday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, KC HRW Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Corn futures were 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher, supported by continued optimism about U.S. trade talks with China and perhaps the reported slower year-over-year harvest pace in Brazil.

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Major U.S. financial indices regained some ground lost in the previous session, led by tech stocks.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 370 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 236 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 11¢ lower to 16¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Jan. 31 were up slightly from the previous month but down 4% from last year, according to USDA’s latest Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were 6% more than the previous month and up 1% from last year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 3% from the previous month but down 2% from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were 3% more than the previous month but 3% less than a year earlier.

Cattle futures closed lower again Monday, pressured by bearish outside markets and despite Friday’s neutral-to-friendly Cattle on Feed report. Uncertainty also lingered about the potential strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colo.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.59 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.16 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $249/cwt., mostly $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at mainly $247-$248 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $245-$247. Dressed delivered prices were $388, which was $6 higher in Nebraska and $6-$8 higher in the western Corn Belt.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $1.29 higher at $246.91. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $6.82 higher at $387.95.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.52 higher Monday afternoon at $369.22/cwt. Select was $3.57 higher at $364.31.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Monday with some likely repositioning and profit taking based on tariff uncertainty.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, KC HRW Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ lower. Corn futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally mixed to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Monday, pressured in part by confusion and uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 821 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 71 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 258 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 2¢ lower to 20¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA provided the first glimpse of crop planting expectations at its Agricultural Outlook Forum last week. Analysts project acres planted to corn, wheat and soybeans to decline 1.3 million acres to 224 million. Forecast corn acres of 94 million acres would be 4.8 million acres less than last year and wheat acres of 45 million would be 300,000 acres less. Projected soybean acres of 85 million would be 3.8 million acres more.

For the 2026-27 crop year, USDA projects season-average prices received by farmers to be 10¢ higher for corn at $4.20 per bushel and wheat prices to be slightly higher at $5 per bushel. Soybean price was estimated marginally higher at $10.30 per bushel.

“A large 2025/26 corn crop and increased domestic soybean crush are expected to keep feedstuffs available for livestock producers,” according to the report. “Hay production increased slightly in 2025—including a 1% increase in alfalfa hay production. On farm hay stocks on Dec. 1, 2025 were estimated to be 81.7 million tons; a slight increase from the previous year and higher than the recent low in 2022 of 71.7 million tons. Alfalfa hay prices fell significantly in 2024 and 2025 as supplies have recovered. For 2026, prices are expected to be stable relative to a year ago and remain below highs seen in recent years.”

Cattle futures closed lower Friday, pressured by the lack of direction from negotiated cash fed cattle trade before the close, the Cattle on Feed report (see below) issued after the close of trade and wariness over the union at the JBS plant in Greeley voting whether to strike.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.35 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.57 lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.08 higher (17¢ to $3.50 higher), except for an average of 14¢ lower in the back two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 98¢ higher (30¢ higher at the back to $1.87 higher in spot Mar).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in Nebraska and moderate to active on good demand in the western Corn Belt.

The only established trends were in the western Corn Belt, where FOB live prices were $1-$2 higher at $245-$247/cwt. and dressed delivered prices were $6-$8 higher at $388.

There was some dressed trade in Nebraska at $388, but there were too few transactions to trend. FOB live prices there the previous week were mostly $245.

Also, for the previous week, FOB live prices were mostly $248 in the Southern Plains.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.53 higher Friday afternoon at $366.70/cwt. Select was 95¢ higher at $360.74. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $2.23 higher but Select was $2.68 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 516,000 head was 25,000 head fewer than the previous week and 49,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated total year-to-date cattle slaughter of 3.9 million head was 450,000 head fewer (-10.3%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 3.5 billion pounds was 313.2 million pounds less (-8.2%).

Grain futures were higher on Friday.  

KC HRW Wheat futures were mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher with short covering and weather premium.

Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher, supported by higher Wheat futures.

Soybean futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower through Mar ‘27 with uncertainty about the Supreme Court decision to overrule President Trump’s reciprocal trade tariffs and the potential impact on trade agreements with China.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday after the Supreme Court ruled against many of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs he imposed with the International Emergency Economic Power Act. Before then disappointing economic data held indices lower.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter last year, according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP increased 4.4% in the third quarter.

Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected downturns in government spending and exports and a deceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 230 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 47 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 203 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were narrowly mixed through the front six contracts, from 4¢ lower to 8¢ higher.

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Markets will likely view USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed report as neutral, coming in near pre-report expectations.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.7 million head in January, which was 86,000 head fewer (-4.7%) than the same time last year.

In terms of placement weights, 42% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 48% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 10% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Feedlots marketed 1.6 million head in January, which was 243,000 head fewer (-13%) less.

Cattle on feed Feb. 1 of 11.5 million head were 211,000 head fewer (-1.8%).

Cattle futures meandered in two-sided trading with thoughts of steady to stronger cash fed cattle prices this week and likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Depending on the estimates, analysts peg January feedlot placements 4% less, January marketings 13% less and the Feb. 1 inventory of cattle on feed down 1.6%.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were mixed from an average of 52¢ higher, to an average of 10¢ lower in four contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 35¢ lower, except for 25¢ higher in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $248/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $245 in Nebraska and mostly $244-$245 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $382 in Nebraska and $380-$382 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.37 higher Thursday afternoon at $365.17/cwt. Select was 84¢ lower at $359.79.

Soybean and grain futures were mixed Thursday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures were 14¢ to 16¢ higher with likely short covering and perhaps weather premium.

Soybean futures were 2¢ to 8¢ higher with likely technical buying.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by investor wariness over simmering tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 267 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 19 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 70 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.36 to $1.62 higher through the front six contracts with increased risk related to U.S.-Iran talks.

Cattle futures mostly edged higher Wednesday, maintaining the previous session’s strong gains and expectations for steady to stronger cash fed cattle prices this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 11¢ higher, except for unchanged to an average of 15¢ lower in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 16¢ higher, except for an average of 25¢ lower at either end of the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $248/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $245 in Nebraska and mostly $244-$245 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $382 in Nebraska and $380-$382 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 96¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $363.80/cwt. Select was 41¢ higher at $360.63.

Grain futures gained Wednesday on likely short covering.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to fractionally higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 10¢ to 14¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased higher Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 129 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 38 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 175 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.45 to $3.02 higher through the front six contracts with increased risk related to U.S.-Iran talks.

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Intuitively, we know that beef demand is important and that more is better than less. However, determining what specific demand levels mean to prices, relative to a given supply of beef, is complex.

“In short, the market simply would not have experienced observed beef and cattle price outcomes in either 2024 or 2025, absent notable consumer demand strength,” says Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University (K-State), in the Feb. 17 issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Stated simply, the number of beef cows matters but is far from the complete story and robs the industry of credit for a good story worth telling, and better appreciation.”

Try this on for size: increased demand explains 87% of increased year-over-year retail beef price in 2025, whereas the declining beef supply accounts for 14%. That’s according to a recent analysis by Tonsor and fellow K-State agricultural economist, Brian Coffey.

“… Dramatic national-level herd liquidation since 2019 has been a key factor in supporting prices for cattle all along the supply chain and all types of beef,” they explain. “However, a look at the data readily reveals that the market changes observed in past few years are anything but one-dimensional. One factor that has received less attention than others is the role of consumer demand for beef.”

In A Microeconomic Assessment of the U.S Retail Beef Market: Beef Demand Matters, they illustrate demand’s role in U.S. consumers paying higher retail beef prices for more beef.

Cattle futures closed higher Tuesday, supported by last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were $1.96 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.01 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $3 higher in the Southern Plains at mainly $248/cwt., mostly $5 higher in Nebraska at mainly $345 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $244-$245. Dressed delivered prices were $4 higher in Nebraska at $282 and $2-$4 higher at $380-$382 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.01 lower Tuesday afternoon at $364.76/cwt. Select was $1.01 lower at $360.22.

Grain futures were lower Tuesday on resistance.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures, however,  were 1¢ to 4¢ higher on resilient demand.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed but to the plus side on Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 32 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 31 points.Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 46¢ to 64¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected feeder steer prices for this year in the February Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. For Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs. and trading at Oklahoma City, the ERS increased prices $11 in the first quarter to $363/cwt., $8 in the second quarter to $363, $4 in the third quarter to $363 and $6 in the fourth quarter to $368. The annual average price increased $7.25 to $364.25.

ERS analysts explain the weighted-average price for feeder steers of that weight and class selling at Oklahoma National Stockyards was $360.04/cwt. in January, which was $15.50 more month to month. Prices the first week of February were $94 more year over year at $364.51.

“Despite higher-than-expected supplies of cattle available for placement in 2026, based on the January Cattle report, supplies overall remain very tight,” ERS analysts say.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $3 higher in the Southern Plains at mainly $248/cwt., mostly $5 higher in Nebraska at mainly $345 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $244-$245. Dressed delivered prices were $4 higher in Nebraska at $282 and $2-$4 higher at $380-$382 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.30 higher Monday afternoon at $367.77/cwt. Select was $2.19 lower at $361.23.

Futures and equity markets were closed Monday for Presidents Day.

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Industry concentration and consolidation appears to be continuing on the production side of agriculture, according to the USDA’s Farms and Land in Farms 2025 Summary.

The number of farms in the United States for 2025 was estimated at 1,865,000, down 15,000 farms from 2024. The number of farms decreased in all sales classes except the $1,000,000 or more sales class. In 2025, 48.0% of all farms had less than $10,000 in sales and 78.8% of all farms had less than $100,000 in sales. In 2025, 9.9% of all farms had sales of $500,000 or more.

Total land in farms decreased 2,510,000 acres year over year to 873,950,000 acres. The land in farms decreased in all sales classes except the $1,000,000 or more sales class, which increased by 850,000 acres.

In 2025, 25.7% of all farmland was operated by farms with less than $100,000 in sales, while 50.1% of all farmland was operated by farms with sales of $500,000 or more.

The average farm size for 2025 is 469 acres, up from 466 acres the previous year.

Cattle futures eased mostly lower Friday, awaiting full development of the week’s cash fed cattle trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 21¢ lower, except for 57¢ higher in spot Feb.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ higher, except for 27¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were mostly $5 higher at mainly $245/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 higher at $380-$382.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $244 and a few dressed trades at $380. Prices there the previous week were $240-$242 and $378, respectively.

Trade was inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains. FOB live prices the previous week were mostly $245.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 37¢ lower Friday afternoon at $364.47/cwt. Select was 39¢ higher at $363.42. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef was $4.86 lower and Select was $1.11 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 541,000 head was 5,000 head more than the previous week but 21,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 3.4 million head was 404,000 head fewer (-10.6%) than the same time last year. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 3.1 billion pounds was 285.1 million pounds less (-8.6%).

Book squaring and profit taking ahead of the market’s three-day weekend appeared to be the order of business for Grain and Soybean futures on Friday.  

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were little changed Friday, retaining most of the previous session’s losses but helped by a softer inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in January, on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The all items index increased 2.4% over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% in January. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, personal care, recreation, medical care and communication. The indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance were among the major indexes that decreased in January.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 48 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 50 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 2¢ to 3¢  through the front six contracts.

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The United States signed a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan last week, which removes non-tariff trade barriers to U.S. red meat exported to Taiwan. U.S. beef gains duty-free access, according to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA).

“Strong, science-based trade agreements are essential to adding value for U.S. cattle producers, and Taiwan has emerged as one of the strongest international markets for U.S. beef,” says NCBA President Gene Copenhaver. “Duty-free access improves competitiveness and provides long-term certainty for producers who depend on export markets to maximize the value of every animal. Foreign markets play a critical role in producer profitability with beef exports accounting for more than $415 per fed cattle processed in 2024.”

More specifically, Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation explains, “Taiwan is the fifth largest market for U.S. beef, with exports valued at about $650 million, and the U.S. is the largest supplier of beef to Taiwan. But there is still potential for further growth with the increased access for all U.S. beef products … The elimination of tariffs on U.S. beef will definitely improve our competitiveness.”

Cattle futures eased lower Thursday, awaiting the week’s cash fed cattle direction and more bearish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 13¢ lower to an average of 23¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 63¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in one contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $245/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $240/cwt. in Nebraska and $240-$242 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.08 lower Thursday afternoon at $364.84/cwt. Select was 45¢ higher at $363.03.

Grain and Soybean futures gained Thursday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 14¢ to 15¢ higher with likely technical buying. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 12¢ higher, buoyed by positive trade talks with China.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with more investors reportedly concerned about how AI may take away from business rather than add.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 669 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 108 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 469 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.67 to $1.79 lower through the front six contracts.

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La Niña continues to weaken and is expected to dissipate by March, with a transitional phase most likely through spring and early summer, according to Matt Makens atmospheric scientist, who provided the weather outlook during the recent CattleFax Outlook Seminar in Nashville. “We’re watching a classic transition year unfold,” said. “Even as the ocean changes, the atmosphere typically takes four to eight weeks to respond, so weather impacts will lag.”

In the near term, drought risks remain elevated across the Southern U.S. and Central Plains, with a 70% chance of intensification, especially south of I-70 and west of I-35. Spring’s neutral setup may help moisture distribute more evenly, though lingering La Niña effects could still limit precipitation west of I-35.

Summer outcomes hinge on how quickly a potential El Niño develops, Makens explains. A fast forming El Niño could deepen drought in corn growing regions while increasing precipitation in the West, whereas slower development may support more balanced moisture. By fall, El Niño becomes increasingly likely, though global climate factors could still alter its typical impacts.

“El Niño isn’t a guarantee of rain for everyone,” Makens says. “Other global patterns can amplify or mute its influence, so close monitoring remains essential.”