Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures surged lower Tuesday beneath the weight of pessimistic outside markets tied to more indicators of persistent inflation.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.12 lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.42 lower ($1.60 to $2.87 lower).

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed 3¢ to 6¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Tuesday, pressured by more gains in already-high Treasury yields and a significantly stronger jobs market than anticipated, raising the likelihood of the Fed boosting interest rates. There were 9.6 million job openings Aug. 31, according to the Job Openings and Turnover Summary from the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 430 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 58 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 248 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 1¢ to 41¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment declined for the second consecutive month in September, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index declined 9 points from the previous month to 106. Producers expressed concern about their current situation as well as future prospects for their operations. The Current Conditions and Future Expectations Indices both declined 10 points to a reading of 98 and 109, respectively. All three indices are lower year over year. This month’s Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from September 11-15, 2023.

“Weakening prices for major crops and ongoing concerns about high production costs and interest rates weighed on producers’ minds this month,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Producers continue to point to high input costs as a top concern for their farming operations in the year ahead. One-third of respondents in this month’s survey cite it as their number one concern, followed by rising interest rates, and lower crop and/or livestock prices.

Producers remain relatively optimistic about farmland values, which Mintert says is surprising given the percentage of respondents who expressed concerns about high input costs, rising interest rates, and the risk of lower crop and livestock prices. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index was unchanged at a reading of 126, while the long-term index rose 2 points to 153. Respondents who expect farmland values to rise over the next five years continue to point to non-farm investor demand for farmland along with inflation as the top two reasons for farmland values to continue rising.

Cattle futures and other commodities gained on Monday with the weight of a potential government shutdown averted, if only temporarily. However, Cattle futures closed a ways from session highs.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.05 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 55¢ higher.

Grain and Soybean futures also closed higher Monday, buoyed by the averted government shutdown and new-month positioning.

Corn futures closed mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 11¢ to 12¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 9¢ higher, except for 2¢ to 4¢ higher in the front four contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $184 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $184. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $290.

The five-area direct weighted average steer price last week was $183.64/cwt. on a live basis, which was $1.09 less than the previous week. The weighted average fed steer price in the beef was $1.72 lower at $290.27.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.30 higher Monday afternoon at $303.08/cwt. Select was 94¢ higher at $276.98/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday despite the reprieve from the government shutdown as investors focused on high interest rates and slow economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 74 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 88 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 63¢ to $1.97 lower through the front six contracts.

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Consumers continue to pay more for increased supplies of higher-grading beef.

Since 1996, Prime-graded beef has moved from just over $5/cwt. to about $15, according to analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) in the latest Livestock Monitor.

“Natural premiums are more than $30/cwt. on average. All natural premiums only began to be reported in 2016,” LMIC analysts say. “Interestingly, Certified Angus Beef (CAB) has maintained the least volatility in the premium space compared to the others but has risen substantially in the last two decades but is still not as largely incentivized as Prime. Today’s premium for CAB beef averages just under $5/cwt.”

On the other end of the quality spectrum, discounts for lower quality grades have grown significantly during the same period.

“The average discount for Standard-graded beef has nearly doubled since 1996 and is sitting at almost -$40/cwt.,” according to LMIC. “Select discounts have slightly more than doubled in that timeframe and last week averaged -$21.67/cwt.”

Cattle futures closed lower Friday with traders wary of the looming government shutdown, which was subsequently averted with a temporary spending bill approved on Saturday. Traders were also closing the book on the week, month and quarter.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.38 lower. They were an average of $6.21 lower week to week on Friday ($5.97 lower at the back to $8.62 lower toward the front).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.97 lower ($1.57 to $2.50 lower). They were an average of $3.07 lower week to week on Friday. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand to inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $184 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $184. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 73¢ lower Friday afternoon at $300.78/cwt. Select was $1.40 lower at $276.04/cwt.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 612,000 head was 13,000 head fewer than the previous week and 55,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 24.2 million head was 1.1 million head fewer (-4.4%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 19.8 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-5.2%).

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly lower Friday as investors considered the likelihood of a government shutdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 158 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 18 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 64¢ to 92¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday as traders considered a government shutdown, as well as higher soybean and wheat stocks than expected in the quarterly Grain Stocks report (see below).

Corn futures closed 7¢ to 11¢ lower through Jly ‘25 and then 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed 10¢ to 21¢ lower through Dec ‘24 and then 7¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 14¢ to 25¢ lower through Aug ‘24 and then 5¢ to 10¢ lower.

Old-crop corn stocks in all positions on Sept. 1, 2023 totaled 1.36 billion bushels, down 1% year over year. Of the total stocks, 605 million bushels were stored on farms, up 19% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks of 756 million bushels were 13% less than the prior year. The 2022 corn for grain production estimate was revised down 15.0 million bushels from the previous estimate.

Old-crop soybeans stored in all positions totaled 268 million bushels, down 2% from the previous year. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 72.0 million bushels, up 14% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks of 196 million bushels were down 7% year over year. Soybean production for 2022 was revised down 5.93 million bushels from the previous estimate.

All wheat stored in all positions Sept. 1 totaled 1.78 billion bushels, up slightly from a year ago. On-farm stocks were estimated at 598 million bushels, up 1% from last September. Off-farm stocks of 1.18 billion bushels were down less than 1% from a year ago.

Cattle futures rebounded Thursday, helped along by more positive outside markets, including a lower U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil prices, as well as recently higher Choice boxed beef cutout values and positive weekly exports.

Net U.S. export sales for 2023 sales of 17,700 metric tons were up 29% from the previous week and up 42% from the prior four-week average, according to the Weekly U.S. Export Sales report for the week ending Sept. 21. Increases were primarily for, South Korea, China, Canada, and Mexico.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.31 higher (80¢ to $2.87 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.75 higher ($1.10 to $2.50 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live sales are steady in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt. and steady to $1 lower in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $184. Dressed delivered prices are $2 lower at $290.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 56¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $301.51/cwt. Select was $1.07 lower at $277.44/cwt.

Turning to grains, ahead of Friday’s stocks report, Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher through new-crop contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat closed 6¢ to 9¢ lower through May ‘25 and then 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday as investors prepared to end the month and the quarter

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 116 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 25 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 108 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.18 to $1.97 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued lower Wednesday, with follow-through pressure from outside markets and concerns that beef demand may falter. Stronger Corn futures added weight.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.01 lower ($1.07 to $2.70 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 85¢ lower (30¢ to $1.07 lower), except for 10¢ higher in spot Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to inactive on light demand through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live sales are steady in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt. and steady to $1 lower in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $184 in a light test. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska are $2 lower at $290 (a few up to $291) and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $290-$292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.41 higher Wednesday afternoon at $300.95/cwt. Select was 59¢ lower at $278.51/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 10¢ to 15¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday after significant early pressure from higher crude oil prices driven by supply concerns and higher bond yields related to fears of persistent inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 68 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 29 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.20 to $3.29 higher through the front six contracts. 

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The Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral in September, for the first time since March, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Specifically, the region’s overall reading for September fell to 49.5 from August’s 50.0. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.  

“This is the weakest recorded reading since March of this year. Bankers indicated that the biggest challenge to community bank profitability over the next 12 months will be a downturn in farm income,” says Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Higher interest rates, deposit outflows and a rising regulatory environment continued to constrain the business confidence index to a much weaker 26.8 from 38.9 in August. “This month’s reading is the most negative outlook recorded since July 2022. Over the past 12 months, the regional confidence index has fallen to levels indicating a very negative outlook,” Goss says. “Approximately half of bankers expect economic conditions to worsen in the next six months.”

Even so, the region’s farmland price index climbed to 65.4 from 60.0 in August. This was the 36th straight month that the index has advanced above 50.0.  “Creighton’s survey continues to point to healthy growth in farmland prices, even as farming conditions weaken,” Goss says.

Cattle futures closed sharply lower Tuesday, pressured by pessimistic outside markets, demand worries, and likely some month-end and quarter-end position squaring.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.56 lower ($1.27 to $5.82 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.88 lower (85¢ lower at the back to $2.85 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $184-$185 in Nebraska and $185-$186 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.94 lower Tuesday afternoon at $299.54/cwt. Select was $1.35 lower at $279.10/cwt. That’s the first time since May that Choice cutout dropped below $300.

Grain and soybean futures appeared to jockey for some position ahead of Friday’s Grain Stocks report.

Corn futures closed 1¢ lower through Sep ‘24 and then mostly fractionally mixed.

KC HRW Wheat closed 1¢ to 4¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Tuesday, pressured by negative economic news.

Consumer confidence sagged lower than expected. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^® declined for a second consecutive month to 103.0 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 108.7 in August.

“September’s disappointing headline number reflected another decline in the Expectations Index, as the Present Situation Index was little changed, says Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.”

New residential home sales in August also missed expectations to the downside. Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Commerce Department. That was 8.7% below the revised July rate of 739,000.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 388 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 63 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 207 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 32¢ to 71¢ higher through the front six contracts. 

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Placements have decreased year over year for 10 of the last 12 months, with total placements down 897,000 head in the last year, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, reflecting on the recent Cattle on Feed report.

“A 12-month moving average of placements shows that the peak annual average monthly placements occurred in December 2019, consistent with the cyclical peak in the calf crop in 2018,” Peel says, in his weekly market comments. “However, pandemic delays from 2020 into 2021and drought-enhanced placements in 2021 and 2022 have kept feedlot placements high until the last few months.” 

Peel explains the current 12-month moving average of placements for August dropped to the lowest level since May of 2017. He says average placements are expected to continue declining for the foreseeable future.

As for the on-feed inventory, the 12-month moving average peaked in September 2022 at 11.836 million head, according to Peel. 

“The September 2023 12-month moving average is 11.507 million head, down 2.8 % from the peak,” Peel says.  “Following the drought a decade ago, the 12-month moving average dropped below 11 million head in April 2013 and remained below that level for 58 months through January 2018. This was the period of rapid herd expansion in the last cattle cycle and a similar situation is likely going forward, beginning in 2024.”

Cattle futures basically paddled in place Monday, looking for further direction and amid firmer Corn futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ lower, except for 25¢ higher in the back contract.

Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 15¢ lower to an average of 19¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $184-$185 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$186. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $292.

The weighted average five-area direct fed steer price was 69¢ higher on a live basis at $184.73/cwt. and 15¢ higher in the beef at $291.99.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.85 lower Monday afternoon at $301.48/cwt. Select was 2¢ higher at $280.45/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures strengthened on Monday.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices gained to start the week as investors seemed to ignore rising bond yields on the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 43 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 59 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 4¢ to 35¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Aug. 31 were 3% more than the previous month but 18% less year than last year, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were up slightly from the previous month but down 13% from last year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 1% percent from the previous month but down 15% from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were down slightly from the previous month but up 1% from a year ago.

Cattle futures bounced back from the previous day’s widespread commodity and equity sell-off, supported by stronger-late-week cash fed cattle prices and ongoing bullish fundamentals.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.34 higher (82¢ to $1.62 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.48 higher ($1.22 to $2.10 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand to inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $183/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $184-$185 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$186. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.40 higher Friday afternoon at $303.33/cwt. Select was $1.43 higher at $280.43/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 625,000 head was 7,000 head fewer than the previous week and 46,000 head fewer (-6.9%) than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 23.6 million head was 1.1 million head fewer (-4.3%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 19.3 billion pounds was 1 billion pounds less (-5.1%) than a year earlier.

Grain and soybean futures firmed on Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday with follow-through pressure related to a potential government shutdown and projected lingering higher interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 106 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 12 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed mixed through the front six contracts, from 68¢ lower to 40¢ higher.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral, although placements were 1% more than expected. Other estimates were in line with pre-report estimates.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, August placements of 2.0 million head were 107,000 head fewer (-5.1%) than a year earlier.

In terms of placement weights, 36% went on feed weighing 699 pounds or less, 47% weighing 700-899 pounds and 17% weighing 900 pounds or more.

Marketings in August of 1.9 million head were 120,000 head fewer (-6.0%).

Cattle on feed Sept 1 of 11.1 million head were 248,000 head fewer (-2.2%).

Cattle futures and other commodity futures closed lower Thursday with the higher dollar and apparent fund selling tied to yesterday’s comments from the Fed suggesting interest rates will stay higher for longer. Wariness over Friday’s Cattle on Feed report could have added pressure.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.31 lower (90¢ lower in spot Sep to $2.87 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.80 lower ($1.57 to $2.02 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand to a standstill through Thursdayafternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $292/cwt. FOB live prices last week were $184-$185.

Elsewhere last week, FOB live prices were $182-$183/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $185 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $301.93/cwt. Select was 32¢ higher at $279.00/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales (2023) of 13,700 metric tons were up noticeably from the previous week and up 15% from the prior four-week average, according to the U.S. Export Sales report for the week ending Sept. 14. Increases primarily for Japan, South Korea, China, Mexico and Canada.

Turning to row crops, grain and Soybean futures closed lower with the pressure from outside markets.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed 12¢ to 18¢ lower through May ‘25 and then mostly fractionally lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 16¢ to 26¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with negative economic news including higher treasury yields and threats of a U.S. government shutdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 370 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 72 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 245 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed marginally mixed through the front six contracts.

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The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects global economic growth to moderate the rest of this year and next amid tighter monetary policy, according to the OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2023.

“Further significant stress in financial markets has been avoided so far, after the turbulence due to bank failures earlier in the year. That said, the global economy continues to confront the challenges of elevated inflation, low growth and comparatively weak trade,” says Mathias Cormann, OECD Secretary-General.

Annual GDP growth in the United States is projected at 2.2% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024, with the slowdown driven by cooler labor markets and the effects of tighter monetary policy. In the euro area, where demand is already subdued, GDP growth is projected to ease to 0.6% in 2023, and edge up to 1.1% in 2024 as the adverse impact of high inflation on real incomes fades. China’s recovery is weaker than expected following the post-pandemic re-opening, with growth projected at 5.1% this year and 4.6% in 2024.

The Outlook highlights a range of downside risks. For instance, according to the report, inflation could continue to prove more persistent than projected, with further disruptions to energy and food markets still possible. A further slowdown in China would dampen growth in trading partners worldwide and could drag down business confidence. Public debt remains elevated in many countries, in the aftermath of significant fiscal support rolled out in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy price crisis.

Cattle futures rebounded Wednesday with thoughts of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices this week and perhaps some early positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.48 higher (55¢ to $2.20 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.08 higher (76¢ to $1.37 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were a few live trades in Nebraska at $186/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $182-$183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $184-$185 in Nebraska and $185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 86¢ lower Wednesday at $301.26/cwt. Select was $3.10 lower at $278.68/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher Wednesday, bolstered by trade worries over a commercial cargo vessel in the Black Sea running into a mine.

KC HRW Wheat closed fractionally lower to 2¢ lower through May ‘24 and then fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased lower Wednesday. Primary news for the day was the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged for now, as widely anticipated, but with indications of another increase coming yet this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 76 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 41 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 209 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 79¢ to 92¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Declining beef cow slaughter is helping support 90%-lean beef prices at levels 17.3% higher than last year, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly marketing comments.

For perspective on cow numbers, Peel explains beef cow slaughter is falling in the second half of this year after increasing annually from 2015 through 2022 and may end up 15-17% less for the year.

With the related higher cull cow prices in mind, Peel advises producers to keep value factors in mind as they make culling decisions this fall.

“As a rough guide, cows will be about 100 pounds heavier for increases in each grade from Lean to Boner to Breaker. Each grade increase is roughly equivalent to an increase of one body condition score,” Peel says. “Additionally, the live weight of cows will change by roughly 25-30 pounds above and below the weight of average dressing cows for high and low dressing cows. Producers can often impact the value of cull cows by managing the weight and condition of cows before marketing.”

For instance, Peel explains cull cows that are thin (Lean, low dressing) in the fall and are retained and fed until spring may sell as Boner cows at average dressing by March with an increase in value of $400-$600/head due to added weight, grade, and condition.

“Of course, the feasibility of holding cull cows depends on time and management considerations and the availability of surplus feed,” Peel says. “Going forward, many culled cows will likely be screened for the possibility of producing another calf and selling later for slaughter value. Leaving the cull cows with a bull while adding weight after weaning may produce another increment of added value if she can be sold as a bred cow next spring at seasonally high bred cow prices.”