Daily Market Highlights

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 88¢ higher, except for lower in expiring Aug.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices on Thursday were mainly steady to lower than last week.

Trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle with FOB live prices steady to $1 higher at $179/cwt., according to the Agricultural Marketing Service

In Kansas, trade was slow to moderate on moderate demand with FOB live prices steady to $1 lower at $178-$179.

FOB live prices in Nebraska were $2-$3 lower at $182 on moderate trade and demand. There were a few live delivered trades at $186.50. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 lower at $290-$292.

In the western Corn Belt, FOB live prices were $1 lower at $184-$185 on slow to moderate trade and moderate demand. There were a few dressed delivered trades at mostly $290 but too few to trend. Prices in the beef last week were $292 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.32 lower Thursday afternoon at $313.79/cwt. Select was 28¢ lower at $289.25/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales (2023) of 18,200 metric tons (MT) for the week ending Aug. 24 were 59% more than the previous week and 35% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Mexico.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Thursday on likely continued month-end position squaring.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 3¢ to 8¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 16¢ to 18¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly lower Thursday as investors closed the books on August.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 168 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 15 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.35 to $2.00 higher through the front six contracts, fueled by chatter that Russia will announce more reduction in crude oil exports.

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USDA decreased expected U.S. beef exports for this year and next in the latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade from the Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service.

U.S. beef exports for Fiscal year (FY) 2023 were forecast $200 million lower than the previous report at $9.1 billion as a strong U.S. dollar and high prices curb foreign demand. FY 2024 beef exports were forecast $600 million less at $8.5 billion on lower volumes driven by tighter U.S. supplies.

Total U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year FY 2024 were projected at $172.0 billion, down $5.5 billion from the revised forecast for FY 2023. Less exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and dairy products were the main driver of the reduction.

For economic perspective, world real GDP was projected to grow by 3.0% in both 2023 and 2024, which was 0.2% more than the previous forecast, as global economies and consumer spending have proven resilient in the face of inflationary pressures.

Similarly, projected growth for the United States’ real GDP in 2023 was raised to 1.8% from the previous estimate of 1.6%. Growth in 2024 is expected to moderate to around 1.0%

“The global economic outlook for calendar years 2023 and 2024 remains positive despite several economic challenges,” according to USDA analysts. “These include continued inflation concerns in the United States and elsewhere, uncertainty regarding monetary policies, macroeconomic issues in China, and Black Sea grain trade disruptions due to the Ukraine war.”

Cattle futures closed lower Wednesday with traders awaiting the week’s cash trade.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.25 lower

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.41 lower, from $2.20 lower in waning spot Aug to 80¢ lower at the back of the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $178-$179/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $179 in Kansas, $185 in Nebraska and $182-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292 in Nebraska and $292-$295 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $315.11/cwt. Select was 15¢ lower at $289.53/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Wednesday with likely month-end position squaring.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 7¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Wednesday despite a more dour employment outlook.

Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs in August, according to the August ADP^® National Employment Report^™ produced by the ADP Research Institute^® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). Job growth was less than expected.

“After two years of exceptional gains tied to the recovery, we’re moving toward more sustainable growth in pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic recede,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 37 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 75 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 26¢ to 47¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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As with any successful program, you can find detractors of the national Beef Checkoff, but it’s hard to oppose what the program accomplishes each year and over time.

Here are a few recent examples.

*With consumers making more shopping decisions online, e-commerce efforts are essential to driving beef sales. National e-commerce campaigns during the holidays and summer grilling months helped put beef front and center for consumers shopping online. These e-commerce campaigns delivered impressive results, generating more than $22 million in incremental beef sales and reaching nearly 16 million households.

*Research continues to serve as the foundation for all Beef Checkoff-funded initiatives. Nutrition research provides proof that beef has a role in a healthy, sustainable diet. Current projects focus on human clinical trials investigating healthy diets, across the lifespan, where beef is the primary source of dietary protein, and focuses on the impact of cardiometabolic health, strength, and performance, and the benefits of beef in the diets of children and adolescents.

*The National Beef Quality Audit (NBQA), conducted approximately every five years since 1991, is foundational research that provides an understanding of what quality means to the various industry sectors, and the value of those quality attributes. This research helps the industry make modifications necessary to increase the value of its products. The findings from the 2022 NBQA serve to improve quality, minimize economic loss, and aid in advancements in producer education for the U.S. beef industry.

Results from the 2022 NBQA indicate that the beef cattle industry is producing a high-quality product that consumers want more efficiently and the industry’s primary focus across the supply chain remains food safety. In addition, there was an increase in the frequency of Prime and Choice quality grades, with 7.5% of carcasses grading Prime, the highest since audits began. Market sectors also reported that their companies strive to increase their sustainability, and work with the entire beef supply chain to do so.

*Cow-calf producers, stockers and feedyards implement Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) practices on their operations to produce the highest quality cattle and provide consumers with the best possible eating experience. BQA principles don’t end at the farm gate, and cattle haulers can also become BQA Transportation (BQAT) certified through recently updated modules. Since BQAT began in 2017, more than 32,000 certifications have been completed.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $178-$179/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $179 in Kansas, $185 in Nebraska and $182-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292 in Nebraska and $292-$295 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.68 lower Tuesday afternoon at $314.36/cwt. Select was $2.41 lower at $289.68/cwt.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Tuesday with an apparent consolidation breather.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed. from unchanged to an average of 26¢ lower in two contracts to an average of 17¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 11¢ lower in three contracts to an average of 15¢ higher.

Nearby Corn and Soybean futures gave up the ghost late in the session, presumably fueled in part by more positive weekly crop ratings than expected.

Corn futures closed 9¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then mostly 5¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed 14¢ to 23¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then mostly 7¢ to 10¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 13¢ lower through May ‘24 and then mostly fractionally higher to 2¢ higher.

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Renewed optimism for tech stocks fueled major U.S. financial indices higher again on Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 292 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 64 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 238 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 83¢ to $1.06 higher through the front six contracts.

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Between seasonal demand and reduced production, beef packers successfully pushed wholesale beef prices higher the past nine days to levels last seen soon after Independence Day. The price road will likely get tougher from here.

“The last summer grilling holiday of the year is just around the corner and the increasing wholesale beef price the past few weeks is likely due to spot purchases to fill final meat counter needs for the Labor Day holiday weekend,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.

Griffith explains some of the recent purchases also may be for restocking meat counters following the holiday. After that, he says there is little to support beef prices until consumer holiday demand at the end of the year.

That’s not saying wholesale beef prices are expected to plunge lower or that they won’t stage a rally along the way, but Griffith says the next significant support will likely come heading into December.

“Turkey will dominate the Thanksgiving holiday, and to a lesser degree ham, but ham and beef tend to find more support during Christmas,” Griffith explains. “Thus, beef supply in the last quarter of the year will be important for December prices.”

Cattle futures rallied higher Monday, apparently buoyed by increasing open interest and trader focus on fundamentals.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.60 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ higher (2¢ to $1.12 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on very light demand in the western Corn Belt through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $178-$179/cwt., $1-$3 lower in Nebraska at $184-$185 and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185-$186. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $292-$295 and from $3 lower to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $292 on a light test.

The five-area direct weighted average steer price last week was $2.29 lower on a live basis at $182.75/cwt. The five-area average steer price in the beef was $1.01 lower at $292.75.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 86¢ lower Monday afternoon at $317.04/cwt. Select was 58¢ lower at $292.09/cwt.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 8¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat closed 10¢ to 16¢ lower through May ‘24 and then 3¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 18¢ higher through Jly ‘24 and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 213 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 114 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 1¢ to 27¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Based on August auction data, prices for replacement females are significantly higher year over year, according to the Livestock marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“Bred cows, 1-3 months along that are classified Medium and Large 1-2, sold on a per head basis, have shown significant uptick across many of the USDA AMS reported August auction data,” say LMIC analysts, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “These cows are generally timing spring-born calves in 2024. Generally speaking, replacement costs have moved substantially higher in the South. The Southeast in particular, has seen upward movement to the tune of 40-60% from a year ago. Kentucky, on the other hand, is one of the few states to see replacement values rise only 21% from last August.”

While data was unavailable for many northern-tier states, LMIC analysts note August replacement prices were 24% year over year at Ozarks Regional Stockyards in West Plains MO and 53% higher at Joplin Regional Stockyards in Missouri. Prices at Oklahoma National Stockyards were 57% higher.

“Bred cows further along in the 4-6 months bred category, which will be calving this year, have seen similar increases,” according to LMIC analysts. “Clovis, NM saw prices jump 29% in August from last year; Colorado was up 21%; West Plains, MO was up 36%; Mississippi was up 11%; and Kentucky, was up 28%.”

“Auction data moved exponentially higher back in 2014 and 2015, however, that expansion effort was propelled by record high profits,” LMIC analysts explain. “Producers are already seeing better calf prices in some areas of the country than they did back then, but costs have increased substantially as well. It is a different environment in which this cattle cycle will turn. Profits are likely to not be as good, and interest rates are substantially higher. While these are not expected to limit expansion, it may be a headwind for some producers.”

Steady Corn futures prices, firmer cash fed cattle prices and the recent uptick in wholesale beef prices helped Cattle futures rise on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 95¢ higher (45¢ to $1.17 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 69¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live trades were steady at $178-$179/cwt.

Trade in Kansas was slow on light to moderate demand with FOB live prices steady at $179.

Trade in Nebraska was limited on light demand with too few transactions to trend. For the week, live FOB prices were steady to $3 lower at $185. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 lower at $292-$295.

In the western Corn Belt, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend. For the week, FOB live prices were $1-$3 lower at $185. Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $290-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 27¢ higher Friday afternoon at $317.90/cwt. Select was 76¢ higher at $292.67/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $1.79 higher and Select was $4.31 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 626,000 head was 10,000 head more than the previous week but 52,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 21.2 million head was 928,000 head fewer (-4.2%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 17.3 billion pounds was 917.8 million pounds less (-5.0%) than the same time last year.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower. KC HRW Wheat closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ higher through Aug ‘24 and then mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rebounded Friday with a more positive economic growth outlook from the Fed.

“So far this year, GDP (gross domestic product) growth has come in above expectations and above its longer-run trend, and recent readings on consumer spending have been especially robust,” according to Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, in his presentation to an economics policy symposium on Friday. “In addition, after decelerating sharply over the past 18 months, the housing sector is showing signs of picking back up.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 247 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 29 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 126 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 78¢ to 83¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Reduced beef cow numbers in tandem with remarkably steadfast consumer beef demand may compel dairy producers to leverage beef breed genetics in their reproduction programs and capture an additional revenue stream in the process, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.

“We expect the adoption of beef genetics in dairy breeding programs will accelerate as producers capitalize on the opportunity for improved margins, particularly given the reduction in beef calf availability,” says Brian Earnest, lead animal protein economist for CoBank. “And while the impact on the overall beef supply will be relatively small, an increase in beef and dairy crossbred calves entering the beef supply chain is something cattle feeders and packers will want to keep an eye on.”

The practice of leveraging beef genetics in dairy reproductive programs, commonly referred to as “beef on dairy” within the industry, has steadily increased in recent years. On average, day-old beef and dairy crossbred calves entering the beef supply chain sell for $100-$300 more than their 100% dairy-bred counterparts.

Increased adoption of beef on dairy crossbreeding will primarily benefit dairy producers, but other sectors of the beef supply chain stand to benefit as well, according to the CoBank report. Animal genetics companies that provide beef semen for artificial insemination of dairy cows can expect continued sales growth.

According to the National Association of Animal Breeders’ Semen Sales Report, U.S. beef semen sales from 2017 to 2022 increased at a rate nearly equal to the rate that U.S. dairy semen sales decreased. The data suggests rising beef semen sales are largely attributable to increased purchases by dairy operators.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow to moderate on light to moderate demand in Nebraska through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Dressed delivered prices were $2.00 to $2.50 lower at $292-$292.50/cwt. There were a few FOB live trades at $184-$186 and a few delivered live trades at $189.50, but too few to trend. FOB live prices there last week were $185-$188.

Trade was limited on light to moderate demand in the western Corn Belt where FOB live prices were $1-$3 lower $185. There were a few dressed delivered trades at $292, but too few to trend; $290-$295 last week.

In the Southern Plains, trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill. FOB live prices last week were $178-$179 in the Texas Panhandle and $179 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 58¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $317.63/cwt. Select was 32¢ higher at $291.91/cwt.

Cattle futures closed higher Thursday, helped along by increasing open interest.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.97 higher ($1.47 to $2.37 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.47 higher ($1.22 to $2.05 higher).

Corn futures closed narrowly mixed, from mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly fractionally lower to 5¢ to lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 8¢ to 12¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Thursday amid renewed worries about high Treasury yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 373 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 59 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 257 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed narrowly mixed through the front six contracts.

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Cow-calf production became more specialized from 1996 to 2018, according to a recent report from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), entitled Structure, Management Practices and Production Costs of U.S. Beef Cow-calf Farms.

Increased specialization or decreased diversification was revealed across several measures.

* 78% of beef cattle operations produced only cattle in 2018 versus 66% in 2008 and 43% in 1996.

* 78% of beef cow operations producing other crops produced hay in 2018 versus 63% in 2008.

* 63% of cow-calf operations were cow-calf only in 2018 versus 47% in 2008; 29% were cow-calf and stocker in 2018 versus 44% in 2008.

Although more specialized, technology adoption remains low and static across cow-calf operations as a whole.

* 8% of cow-calf producers utilized artificial insemination in 2018, the same as in 2008. Likewise, 2% of producers utilized embryo transplant and/or sexed semen both years.

* 50% of cow-calf producers kept individual cow-calf production records in 2018, which was 4% more than in 2008. 28% used an on-farm computer for cow-calf information in 2018, versus 20% in 2008.

Although sideways, Cattle futures wobbled Wednesday as traders added risk premium back to Corn futures, which closed 9¢ to 11¢ higher through Jly ‘24 and then mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed 12¢ to 17¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 15¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 28¢ lower, except for 18¢ higher in May ’24.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 35¢ higher, except for an average of 16¢ lower in two contracts.

Through mid session today, Cattle futures are stronger.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service

Last week, FOB live prices were $178-$179/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $179 in Kansas, $185-$188 in Nebraska and $186-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295 in Nebraska and $290-$295 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was unchanged Wednesday afternoon at $317.05/cwt. Select was $2.08 higher at $291.59/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 184 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 48 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 215 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 70¢ to 76¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Frozen beef supplies last month continued significantly lower year over year, according to the most recent USDA Cold Storage report. Total pounds of beef in freezers July 31 were 2% more than the previous month but were 18% less than the same time last year.

Frozen pork supplies were down 3% from the previous month and down 10% from last year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were down slightly from the previous month and down 14% from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were 1% less than the previous month but 4% more year over year.

Cattle futures gave back most of what they gained in the previous session, amid sluggish trade and a lack of weekly cash direction.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.16 lower (88¢ to $1.43).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ lower, (53¢ to $1.25 lower).

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ lower, with follow-through pressure from last week’s positive crop progress and ratings.

KC HRW Wheat closed unchanged to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 12¢ to 18¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all trading regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. 

Last week, FOB live prices were $178-$179/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $179 in Kansas. $185-$188 in Nebraska and $186-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295 in Nebraska and $290-$295 in the western Corn Belt.

However, wholesale beef prices were up. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.49 higher Tuesday afternoon at $317.05/cwt. Select was $2.18 higher at $289.51/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday, pressured by the recent peak in Treasury-note yields, as well as bank stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 174 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 8 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 29¢ to 48¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Despite slacker Feeder Cattle futures prices recently, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee points out they continue to trade in the same $10 range since the end of June.

“The question now is if the market will trade lower than the established range or does it have the ability to make a run to even higher prices?” Griffith says, in his weekly market comments.  “There is no way of knowing the answer, but the market sure seems to be finding little to no support for higher prices at this time. This would mean it is more likely for feeder cattle to stay in its current trading range or to soften.”

According to Griffith, as strong as market fundamentals are, it’s possible prices have outpaced the support.

 “A good example of this was in 2014 and 2015 when prices ascended rapidly and then descended rapidly through 2016 and 2017,” Griffith says. “This commentary is not saying cattle prices should be higher, lower, or exactly where they are, but it is saying the market is expected to be efficient. This simply means the market will adjust such that price is in line with supply and demand.”

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, supported by the bullish Cattle on Feed report and lower Corn futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.84 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 74¢ higher, (45¢ to $1.12 higher).

There was no afternoon report from AMS for negotiated cash fed cattle trade.

Based on the latest available report, FOB live prices last week were $1-$3 lower in the Southern Plains at $177-$179, 50¢ to $3 lower in Nebraska at $185-$187.50 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mainly $186. Dressed delivered prices were $1 lower to $2 higher at $294-$297.

The five-area direct weighted average fed steer price last week was $185.04/cwt. on a live basis, which was 84¢ less than the previous week. The five-area direct steer price in the beef was $1.84 lower at $293.76.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 55¢ lower Monday afternoon at $315.56/cwt. Select was $1.03 lower at $287.33/cwt.

Positive crop progress and conditions weighed on Corn futures Monday.

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 10¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then mostly 3¢ lower.

Wheat futures were down 7¢ to 12¢ on harvest pressure.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 8¢ higher through Aug ‘24 and then mostly 1¢ higher, supported the hot, dry forecast and export news.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, supported by tech but pressured by increased Treasury-note yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 36 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 206 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 28¢ to 54¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Beef imports to the U.S. are higher year over year so far, as expected, with declining U.S. production.

Imports in the first half of 2023 totaled nearly 1.9 billion pounds, about 1% more than the same time last year, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Cumulative imports from Australia increased 26% from the same period last year. ERS analysts add that Australia’s exports to the world were up 20% year over year as higher production provided more exportable supplies.

Snubbed to a different post, U.S. imports during the first half of this year were 13.3% of total domestic beef disappearance (production + net trade + net stocks), which was slightly higher than the same time last year. Imports for the full year are expected to be 12.8% of total disappearance, compared to an average of 11.7% for 2018-22.

“That percentage is expected to increase to about 13.8% in 2024 as domestic production declines and imports increase,” say ERS analysts.

On the other side of the fence, U.S. beef export value for the first half of this year was the second highest on record, although 19% less year over year.

Cattle futures finally found some traction on Friday, perhaps fueled by position squaring ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below), which turned out to be bullish.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.21 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 53¢ higher, except for unchanged in the back contract.

Packers succeeded in holding cash fed cattle prices steady to mainly lower last week, while also ratcheting wholesale beef prices higher as they restrict production.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were some FOB live trades in the Texas Panhandle at $178/cwt. but too few to trend.

For the week, based on the latest established trends, FOB live prices were $1-$3 lower in the Southern Plains at $177-$179, 50¢ to $3 lower in Nebraska at $185-$187.50 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mainly $186. Last week, dressed delivered prices were $1 lower to $2 higher at $294-$297.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.97 higher Friday afternoon at $316.11/cwt. Select was $2.10 higher at $288.36/cwt.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 616,000 head was 13,000 head more than the previous week but 48,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total estimated cattle slaughter of 20.6 million head was 876,000 head fewer (-4.1%) the the same time a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 16.8 billion pounds was 876.8 million pounds less (-5.0%).

Hotter, drier weather helped lift grain futures again on Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 6¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed 14¢ to 20¢ higher through Sep ‘24 and then mostly 10¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 26¢ higher through Aug ‘24 and then mostly 7¢ to 12¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday, pressured by increased Treasury-note yields and some lackluster earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 25 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 26 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 60¢ to 86¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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If anything, markets will likely view the monthly Cattle on Feed report for feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity as slightly bullish, based on placement numbers.

Placements in July were 146,000 head fewer (-8.3%) than the previous year at 1.62 million head. That was 2.8% less than pre-report expectations.

In terms of placement weights, 38% went on feed weighing 699 pounds or less, 46% weighing 700-899 pounds and 16% weighing 900 pounds or more.

Marketings in July of 1.73 million head were 97,000 head fewer (-5.3%) than the previous year, which was in line with expectations.

Cattle on feed Aug. 1 of 11.03 million head were 259,000 head fewer (-2.3%) than the previous year, which was slightly less than expectations ahead of the report.