Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, supported by stronger outside markets and resilient Choice wholesale beef values.

Live cattle futures were an average of $2.55 higher ($1.45 higher at the back to $4.10 higher toward the front). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.04 higher. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.12 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.97 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light to moderate in the western Corn Belt to light on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $3-$5 lower in the Southern Plains at $223-225/cwt., $5-$7 lower in Nebraska at $230 and $3-$6 lower in the western Corn Belt at $230-233. Dressed delivered prices were $8 lower in Nebraska at $368 (a few up to $373.50) and $6-$8 lower in the western Corn Belt at $368-$370.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.44 higher Friday afternoon at $396.49. Select was $3.19 higher at $382.93.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 560,000 head was the same as the previous week but 50,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 14.6 million head was 998,000 head fewer (-6.4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 12.7 billion pounds was 424 million pounds less (-3.2%) than the same time last year.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday with short covering and likely positioning ahead of Monday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.

Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher through new-crop contracts and then 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ lower to fractionally higher through May ’26 and then 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher again Friday, with reports the U.S. and China had finalized a trade framework.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 432 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 105 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 4¢ to 28¢ higher  through the front six contracts.

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Consumers continue to amaze many with their willingness to pay higher prices for beef.

“The weekly choice cutout has been increasing each week since mid-April,” says Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University, in a recent issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly. He explains Choice beef values typically peak in April and May but reached their seasonal zenith the first week of July last year and in mid-June the previous year.

“The continued weekly increases have already pushed past when many would normally expect the seasonal peak to occur ahead of summer grilling season,” Maples says. “For reference, the only other time the cutout has been higher than $380/cwt. was a COVID-driven three-week period during May 2020.”

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.99 higher week to week on Friday at $396.49/cwt. It was $382.11 the previous Monday, which was 19% more year over year, according to Maples.

“Most markets have a temporary ceiling that can be identified. However, at this particular point in time, it is difficult to determine where the boxed beef market’s temporary ceiling is,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “… The market has not found that price point yet. One may think the $400 mark would demonstrate resistance to wholesale buyers, but the strength of the bullish beef market would indicate it is just another mark. If Choice boxed beef prices fail to push past $400 then some will say it was resistance, but it could just be the market ran out of steam. Alternatively, if the market exceeds $400 then market observers will have something else to discuss. In short, the beef market is strong and appears to stay that way for a while.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate demand in Nebraska and limited on light demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in Nebraska at $230/cwt. and a few in Kansas at $223-$225.

Last week, FOB live prices were $228 in the Southern Plains, $235-$237 in Nebraska and $235-$238 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $376.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 11¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $395.05. Select was $3.45 higher at $379.74.

Cattle futures continued to mainly hover Thursday.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 13¢ lower except for 32¢ higher in near Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 55¢ higher.

Grain and Soybean futures continued to dredge lower Thursday with follow-through bearishness and likely trepidation over next Monday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Thursday, buoyed by easing geopolitical worries and a bullish reading on the jobs front. Initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending June 21 were 10,000 fewer than the previous week at 236,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That was less than the trade expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 404 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 48 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 194 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 40¢ to 66¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers May 31 were 3% less than the previous month and 1% less than a year earlier, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were down 1% from the prior month and down 7% from the same time last year.

Total red meat supplies in cold storage were 2% less than the previous month and down 4% from last year.

On the other side of the meat case, total frozen poultry supplies were up 2% month to month but down 6% year over year.

Cattle futures eased mainly lower again Wednesday as traders awaited direction from weekly cash fed cattle trade.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 53¢ lower except for 37¢ higher toward the back.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices last week were $228/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $235-$237 in Nebraska and $235-$238 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $376.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 69¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $394.94. Select was $6.12 lower at $376.29.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Wednesday with favorable domestic weather and bullish production overseas.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were 17¢ to 21¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 106 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 61 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 17¢ lower to 48¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose 7.9 points month to month in June to 51.9, edging above growth neutral for just the third time in two years. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Despite the significant increase for the month, on average, bankers expect approximately one in four farmers to experience negative income for farmers in their area,” says Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Overall, rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June confidence index increased to a frail 37.0 from May’s 30.0. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” Goss explains.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Cattle futures eased mainly lower Tuesday, apparently waiting to see the week’s cash fed cattle direction, despite higher outside markets and a surge in Choice wholesale beef value.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 53¢ lower except for 30¢ higher in near Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ lower, except for 42¢ higher in Apr.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand in Nebraska to inactive on light demand elsewhere through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices were $7 lower in the Southern Plains at $228/cwt., $5 lower in Nebraska at $235-$237 and $3-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $235-$238. Dressed delivered prices were $4 lower at $376.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.03 higher Tuesday afternoon at $394.25. Select was 69¢ lower at $382.41.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Tuesday with weather and another sharp decrease in Crude Oil futures.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 14¢ to 15¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 9¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Tuesday as Crude Oil futures tumbled for a second consecutive day and traders bet on the nascent truce between Iran and Israel.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 507 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 67 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 281 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $3.15 to $3.49 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures closed mixed but firmer Monday.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were mixed, from an average of 40¢ lower to an average of 28¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices were $7 lower in the Southern Plains at $228/cwt., $5 lower in Nebraska at $235-$237 and $3-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $235-$238. Dressed delivered prices were $4 lower at $376.

The weekly five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $4.03 lower at $234.88. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $3.48 lower at $376.57.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 28¢ lower Monday afternoon at $390.22. Select was $6.15 higher at $383.10.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Monday with weather and the sharp decrease in Crude Oil futures (see below).

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 7¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 14¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices gained Monday with Crude Oil futures shoved sharply lower on what traders viewed as tame Iranian retaliation to U.S. air strikes over the weekend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 374 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 57 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 183 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $3.90 to $6.58 lower through the front six contracts.

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Feedlot inventories will continue eroding over time, and likely at a faster pace, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

“The feedlot is like a water tank with placements as the inflow and marketings as the outflow. Slower inflow is more than offset by slower outflow and helps keep the inventory (stock level) of the feedlots temporarily higher than the flows would indicate,” Peel explains.

Using his water tank analogy, Peel explains the inflow of feedlot placements during the past six months are 4.4% less compared to the same period last year, while the outflow of markets was at a slower pace of 3.1%.

However, feedlot inventories remain relatively higher than the flows might suggest.

Cattle on feed June 1, in yards with more than 1,000 head capacity were 1% less year over year, according to the latest Cattle on Feed report. Peel says the on-feed inventory has averaged 1.2% less year over year for the past seven months.

“… The fact is that feedlot production and beef production are falling and will continue to fall, probably faster, in the coming months,” Peel says.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday after early support, likely pressured by softer cash fed cattle prices, weaker Choice wholesale beef values and perhaps some positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Live cattle futures closed an average of $1.38 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.51 lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.00 lower and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.91 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the Texas Panhandle at $228/cwt. Prices in the Southern Plains the previous week were $235.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4-$6 lower in Nebraska at $236/cwt. and $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $236-$238. Dressed delivered prices were $4 lower at $376.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.92 lower Friday afternoon at $390.50. Select was $2.36 higher at $376.95.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 554,000 head was 4,000 head fewer than the previous week and 62,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 14 million head was 955,000 fewer (-6.4%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 12.2 billion pounds was 398.2 million pounds less (-3.2%).

Turning to grains, futures were lower Friday with likely profit taking and favorable precipitation and weather.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 5¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were narrowly mixed Friday with pressure from tech stocks and tensions surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 35 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 98 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed mixed through the front six contracts, from 21¢ lower to 34¢ higher.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to supportive with fewer placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.9 million head in May, which was 160,000 head fewer than the previous year (-7.8%) and 2% less than average pre-report estimates.

In terms of placement weights, 33% went on feed weighing 699 pounds or less, 51% weighing 700-899 pounds and 16% weighing 900 pounds or more.

Feedlots marketed 1.8 million head in May, which was 197,000 head fewer (-10.1%) than the previous year, which was in line with estimates ahead of the report.

Likewise, cattle on feed June 1 were as expected with 11.4 million head, which was 112,000 head fewer (-1%) than the same time last year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far, this week, FOB live prices are $4-$6 lower in Nebraska at $236/cwt. and $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $236-$238. Dressed delivered prices are $4 lower at $376.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235.00/cwt. in the Southern Plains.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.92 higher Thursday afternoon at $393.79. Select was $1.85 higher at $374.59.

Futures markets were closed Thursday.

Through midday Friday, Cattle futures were trading higher, supported by strong wholesale beef values and perhaps positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the source, estimates ahead of the report pegged May placements at about 6% less year over year, May marketings at 10% less and the June 1 feedlot inventory at about 1% less.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.57 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ higher.

In the grain complex, also through midsession Friday, Corn futures were trading mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower through Jly ’26. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower through Jly ’26.

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Equity markets were closed Thursday. Major U.S. financial indices were mixed through midday Friday. At the time, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 14¢ to 30¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Federally inspected cattle slaughter declined month to month in May for the first time since the data series began in 1970, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the June Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Slaughter typically increases in the spring months leading up to grilling season

“Further, this was unexpected because the number of cattle on feed over 150 days was above volumes a year ago at the beginning of March, April, and May,” ERS analysts explain. “Upon reviewing slaughter data through mid-June, it appears that the pace may stay relatively flat month over month, which would also be a divergent trend.”

Although wholesale beef values have increased seasonally at a faster pace than usual, ERS analysts say fed cattle prices have risen comparatively more, keeping the pressure on packer margins.

“Specifically, from the first week of April to the second week of June, comprehensive boxed beef prices have climbed 9% compared to 13% for slaughter steer prices in the five-area marketing region over the same period,” ERS analysts say. “Weekly slaughter steer prices in the five-area marketing region have been climbing so rapidly that eight consecutive records have been established with the week ending June 15.”

Cattle futures were mainly firmer Wednesday. Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 66¢ higher, except for an average of 55¢ lower in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 60¢ higher, except for an average of 95¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on good demand in the North to mostly inactive elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $4-$6 lower in Nebraska at $236/cwt. and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $236-$237. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $376-$378 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $376.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235.00/cwt. in the Southern Plains.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.36 higher Wednesday afternoon at $388.87. Select was 20¢ higher at $372.74.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 22¢ to 23¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Wednesday.

Key news for the day included the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

“Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated,” according to the FOMC statement.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 44 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 25 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 3¢ to 25¢ lower through the front six contracts after 27¢ higher in spot Jly.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the projected average feeder steer price for the remainder of this year, compared to the previous month, in the June Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Forecast prices increased $4 in the third quarter to $306/cwt. and $2 in the fourth quarter to $308. However, the second-quarter estimate decreased $9 to $301. The projected annual price is $297.78 for this year and $306.25 for 2026. Prices are basis a 750-800 lbs. Medium and Large #1 steer selling at Oklahoma City.

ERS analysts note this class and weight of steers averaged just over $272/cwt. at Oklahoma National Stockyards during the first 11 weeks of the year and almost $296 since then. However, they say lower auction volumes some weeks due to inclement weather add challenge to identifying price trends.

“After Memorial Day, early June sale prices showed resilient demand for feeder steers, which is likely on the back of plentiful rains in the Southern Plains, improving grazing conditions,” ERS analysts say.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS increased projected fed steer prices for the remainder of this year in June’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

Based on recent price strength and continued demand for cattle, ERS increased the forecast five-area direct fed steer price $9-$10 higher than the previous month. Prices were projected at $217/cwt. in the second quarter, $226 in the third quarter and $229 in the fourth quarter. The annual average price increased $7 to $221.51.

That was with this year’s beef production projected to be 65 million pounds less than the previous month’s forecast at 26.4 billion pounds, based on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year. Production would be 626 million pounds less (-2.3%) than the previous year.

For next year, the ERS projected the first-quarter price to be $227 and the annual average price to be $229.

Cattle futures sold sharply lower Tuesday with technical pressure and worries, more bearish outside markets and worries about the potential impact stemming from the Israel-Iran conflict.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $3.51 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.89 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235.00/cwt. in the Southern Plains,  $240-$242 in Nebraska and $240-$241 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.40 higher Tuesday afternoon at $386.51. Select was $5.07 higher at $372.54.

Grain and Soybean futures were mainly higher Tuesday.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher through new-crop contracts.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower in spot Jly and then 3¢ to 4¢ higher through near Mar.

Soybean futures were mostly 4¢ to 7¢ higher through near Mar.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday with renewed concerns about the fighting between Israel and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 50 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 180 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.74 to $3.12 higher through the front six contracts.

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Meat is having a moment, says Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University, pointing to elevated consumer demand and retail prices for red meat protein.

“Per the Meat Demand Monitor (MDM) project (beef and pork checkoff-supported, based at Kansas State University), there is an upward trend in self-declared rates of being a meat consumer (versus Vegan or Vegetarian),” Tonsor explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Further, when it comes to influencing protein purchasing decisions, aspects such as Taste and Freshness have been growing for the typical U.S. resident relative to considerations such as Environmental Impact and Origin/Traceability. This is important to appreciate as stakeholders throughout the industry make production, marketing, and promotion decisions.”

In a related Farm Journal report with Tyne Morgan, Tonsor points to three drivers helping boost demand: increased consumption of red meat as a meal ingredient rather than only a center of the plate entree; physically active younger generations; the number of consumers utilizing new weight- loss drugs that promote more protein consumption.

Plus, Tonsor says consumers today appear more willing to continue paying more for the protein of their choice, rather than consuming less and substituting with cheaper alternatives.

“Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, largely tied to trade discussions and possible implications for realized inflation and/or unemployment domestically, presents itself as the largest headwind against an otherwise supportive consumer demand situation,” Tonsor says. “There continue to be MDM based signals that food service demand is softer, likely reflecting household budget-driven behavior change. As the 2025 grilling season gets in full swing, perhaps bolstering retail meat demand, both the macroeconomic situation and the inner-industry developments in response are key to watch.”

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, gaining back much of the lost gains from the previous session, as wholesale beef values increased and outside markets rebounded from skittishness tied to the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.72 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.89 higher.

There was no Monday afternoon USDA fed cattle report available at press time. Based on the latest report, FOB live prices last week were $3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $235/cwt., mostly steady in Kansas at mainly $235, steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $240-$242 and steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $240-$241. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $380.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $2.06 higher at $238.68. The dressed delivered steer price was 28¢ lower at 380.06.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.23 higher Monday afternoon at $382.11. Select was $3.97 higher at $367.47.

Turning to row crops, futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 7¢ to 10¢ lower with pressure from recent rains and favorable weather. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower.

However, Soybean futures were mostly 6¢ higher, extending gains from Fridays EPA announcement proposing increased Renewable Volume Obligations for biomass-based diesel in the Renewable Fuels Standard.

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Major U.S. financial indices pared losses from the previous session with lower Crude Oil futures and optimism for a resolution to the fighting between Israel and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 37 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 294 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 40¢ to $1.49 lower through the front six contracts.

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Based on various data, including forage conditions, the nation’s beef cow herd may be at the threshold of expansion, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Though there is no data confirmation yet, it seems likely that heifer retention may be underway in several areas including the Southern Plains and points east,” Peel says, in his weekly market comments. ‘However, it is doubtful that much aggressive restocking or herd rebuilding is in progress in several major beef cow states from Nebraska north and west. In total it is likely to still be a slow pace of herd rebuilding.”

At the very least, Peel says it looks more likely the 27.9 million beef cows at the beginning of this year was the cyclical low.

“Although the inventory of bred heifers was record low, beef cow slaughter is down 16.2% for the first 21 weeks of the year, indicating a low level of cow culling that might allow for a fractional increase in the beef cow herd this year,” Peel says.

Further, Peel points out that Jan. 1 beef cow inventories were unchanged or slightly higher year over year in seven of the 10 largest beef cow states. He adds beef replacement heifer inventories at the beginning of the year were unchanged or higher in eight of those states.

Although forage conditions continue to be a limiting factor in some areas, Peel says, “It would appear that a number of major beef cow states are interested in herd rebuilding.”