Daily Market Highlights

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 29, 2025

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Friday, supported by firm negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures  closed an average of $1.06 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of $1.54 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.95 higher. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 64¢ higher, except for an average of 67¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $229/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $230, and $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $229.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $356. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $356-$358.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.41 lower Friday afternoon at $351.21/cwt. Select was $1.95 lower at $343.80.

Estimated total cattle slaughter for the holiday-shortened week of 429,000 head was 158,000 head fewer than the previous week and 4,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 28.9 million head was 2.1. million head fewer (-6.8%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 25.3 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.0%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Friday.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower in the front three contracts and then mostly fractionally higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closedmostly unchanged to fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial closed little changed on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 20 points. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower, and the NASDAQ closed 20 points lower.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.41 to $1.61 lower through the front six contracts.

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Beef packing capacity utilization will continue to be less than historical norms, despite Tyson closing its plant at Lexington, Neb., and halving production at its Amarillo, Texas facility, according to Terrain’s recent outlook for the first quarter of 2026.

Terrain estimates the Tyson transitions will eventually reduce U.S. slaughter capacity by about 6.6%.

“However, slaughter plant capacity utilization is still nearly 6% behind historical norms, as the number of cattle is still well short of filling available slaughter capacity,” explains Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst. “I expect utilization to decline by about 2% during 2026 when two new plants in Nebraska and Missouri complete their startups. A proposed plant in the Panhandle of Texas that would handle 6,000 head per day has the potential to lower utilization rates back to early-2025 levels if completed. Even without additional future slaughter capacity, utilization rates will remain low; fed cattle numbers are expected to decline during the next two to three years because of cow-calf producers’ beef cow herd expansion efforts.”

In the meantime, Weaber says reduced fed slaughter packing capacity will help the remaining plants run more volume, improving efficiency by spreading fixed and semi-variable costs across more head and pounds of beef. He explains increased operational efficiency will likely encourage plants to fill available capacity and compete more for the available cattle.

“Even with a 2% shift in leverage (fed cattle price to comprehensive cutout) to the packers’ favor, I expect the choice cutout to average between $375/cwt. and $385/cwt., and fed cattle prices to average between $234/cwt. and $238/cwt. in the first quarter,” Weaber says.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 29, 2025 2025-12-28T17:14:40-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 25 and 26, 2025

Cattle futures sputtered during Wednesday’s holiday-shortened session.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 26¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 32¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska to limited on light to moderate demand in the western Corn Belt to mostly inactive on moderate demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $229 and $2 higher in Nebraska at $230, where dressed delivered prices are steady at $356-$358.

Last week, FOB live prices in the western Corn Belt were $228 and dressed delivered prices were $356-$358.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.15 lower Wednesday afternoon at $354.62/cwt. Select was $3.84 lower at $345.75.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Wednesday with likely technical buying.

Toward the close, through near Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were 11¢ to 12¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 288 points. The S&P 500 closed 22 points higher, and the NASDAQ closed 51 points higher.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 2¢ to 7¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) edged above growth neutral this month for only the second time this year.

The overall index rose 6 points month to month to 50.1, the highest since last July. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. It is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

“Weak agriculture commodity prices and high input costs for grain producers continue to restrain economic activity in the 10-state region,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

When asked to identify the most effective policy changes to boost farm income, half of the bank CEOs named the reduction of farm tariffs and trade restrictions as the most effective or useful.

“Tariffs continue to be a negative factor for the farming sector,” says Jeffrey Gerhart, former Chairman of the Independent Community Bankers Association. “We’ve worked hard to build good trading relationships with our trading partners across the globe, only to see it torn apart in less than 12 months.”

Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months, although the December confidence index rose to 40.9, its highest reading since January of this year.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 25 and 26, 2025 2025-12-24T16:16:24-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 24, 2025

Cattle futures were lower Tuesday with profit taking and floundering wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.03 lower (7¢ lower toward the back to $2.22 lower at the front), except for 10¢ higher in the back contract.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate to good demand in Kansas through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher at $229/cwt.

Trade was limited on light to moderate demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $356 and some FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $229. Last week, FOB live prices were $228-$229 in both regions. Dressed delivered prices were $356-$358.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $7.10 lower Tuesday afternoon at $355.77/cwt. Select was $1.10 lower at $349.59. The Choice-Select spread of $6.18 was the lowest since May of 2024.

Grain futures were higher Tuesday.

Toward the close, through near Jly, KC HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher with some likely risk premium added for the Ukraine-Russia war.

Corn futures were fractionally higher.

Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, led by tech stocks and supported by stronger domestic economic growth than anticipated.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 79 points. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher, and the NASDAQ closed 133 points higher.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 28¢ to 46¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Projected cattle feeding returns remain significantly positive through the first half of next year, based on the latest Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns. Keep in mind, these estimates are based on cash and assume no price risk management.

For instance, projected net returns for steers range from $500.25 per head this month to $221.79 in May, with a cost of feedlot gain increasing from $93.03/cwt. this month to $102.21 in May. Similarly, projected net returns for heifers range from $547.31 per head this month to $288.23 in May with a feedlot cost of gain growing from $99.77/cwt. this month to $109.66 in May.

Estimated returns decline progressively through May, primarily due to increasing feeder cattle prices. Then net returns turn negative.

Projected returns range from -$243.03 per head in June to -220.82 in August. Feeder cattle prices for those months are $334.84/cwt. and $325.42, respectively. By way of comparison, feeder steer prices before then ranged from $263.23 for cattle finished this month to $286.69 for those that will finish in May. Feedlot cost of gain for steers runs from $102.90/cwt. to $104.13 from June through August.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 24, 2025 2025-12-23T17:46:10-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 23, 2025

Cattle futures extended gains Monday, supported by Friday’s friendly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 91¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.13 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $228-$229/cwt. and unevenly steady in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $228. Dressed delivered prices were $356-$358, which was $3-$6 higher in the western Corn Belt and mainly $3 higher in Nebraska.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was 22¢ lower at $227.97. The five-area-direct weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $3.50 higher at $357.12.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.24 higher Monday afternoon at $362.87/cwt. Select was $4.67 higher at $350.69.

Grain and soybean futures were higher Monday in what appeared to be a relief rally.

Toward the close, through near Jly  Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, supported by AI stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 227 points. The S&P 500 closed 43 points higher, and the NASDAQ closed 121 points higher.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.22 to $1.41 higher through the front six contracts.

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Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University provides further context to tightening feeder cattle supplies, in his weekly market comments.

Reflecting on the latest Cattle on Feed report, Peel explains, “Feedlot inventories have declined year over year for 13 consecutive months, leading to a 12-month moving average total the lowest since October 2018.” 

As mentioned in yesterday’s Cattle Current, cattle on feed Dec. 1 of 11.7 million head were 255,000 head fewer (-2.1%) than the same month last year.

Moreover, Peel explains the rather slow decline in feedlot inventories masks a sharper drop in feedlot placements and marketings. 

“Feedlot placements in November were down 11.2% year over year and have decreased 8.6% in the last six months,” Peel says. “… As of November, average of feedlot placements the past year are at the lowest level since April 2016.”

Similarly, as of November, feedlot marketing had declined 7.9% during the past six months and average marketing were the least since August of 2106, according to Peel.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 23, 2025 2025-12-22T17:27:15-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 22, 2025

Cattle futures closed higher Friday and for the week, helped by holding recent gains in cash fed cattle prices and higher wholesale beef values on the day. The monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below) should help optimism.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.83 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.39 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $1.03 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.20 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt to limited on moderate demand in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. For the week, FOB live prices were unevenly steady in both regions at $228/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $356-$358, which was $3-$6 higher in the western Corn Belt and mainly $3 higher in Nebraska.

Trade was inactive on moderate demand in Kansas. FOB live prices there last week were $230/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.35 higher Friday afternoon at $361.63/cwt. Select was $2.05 higher at $346.02. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.19 higher and Select was $1.80 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 587,000 head was 9,000 head fewer than the previous week and 29,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 28.5 million head was 2.1 million head fewer (-6.9%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 24.9 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.1%) than the same period a year ago.

Grain and soybean futures closed lower Friday.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ lower through May ‘28.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday with follow-through support from the tamer than expected Consumer Price Index.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 183 points. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher, and the NASDAQ closed 301 points higher.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 40¢ to 52¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as bullish with the fewest November placements since the data series began in 1996.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.6 million head in November, which was 201,000 head fewer (-11.2%) than the same month last year. That was 3.6% less than average analyst expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of weights for net placements, 52% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 35% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 13% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in November of 1.5 million head were 204,000 head fewer (-11.8%) year over year, which was in line with expectations, but the second fewest for the month going back to 1996.

Cattle on feed Dec. 1 of 11.7 million head were 255,000 head fewer (-2.1%) than the same month last year, which was slightly less than expected. Effects of the southern border closure to Mexican feeder cattle imports, due to New World screwworm, grows more glaring with each passing month. Texas feedlot inventory Dec. 1 of 2.6 million head was 9% less year over year and November placements of 285,000 head were 17% less.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 22, 2025 2025-12-21T15:39:52-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 19, 2025

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were unevenly steady in both regions at $228/cwt. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $3 higher at mostly $358. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades at $355-$358 in the western Corn Belt, where prices last week were $350-$355.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.19 higher Thursday afternoon at $357.28/cwt. Select was $2.46 lower at $343.97.

Cattle futures continued lower Thursday with still-overbought conditions.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ lower (25¢ lower at the back to $1.72 lower in spot Dec).

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.87 lower.

Grain futures were higher again on Thursday, while Soybean futures continued to flounder.

Toward the close, through near Jly, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher, supported by strong ethanol production and demand.

KC HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ higher, likely buoyed by short covering.  

Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, supported by a tamer inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis over the two months from September 2025 to November 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7% before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 65 points. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher, and the NASDAQ closed 313 points higher.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were unchanged to 7¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Economic uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is much lower than it was a year ago, steadying the broader outlook for 2026, according to a new year-ahead report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.

“With the year-on-year tariff inflationary effect fading by end of the first quarter, core inflation is likely to resume its downward trend in the second half of the year,” say CoBank analysts. “That will provide sufficient cover for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in 2026. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the accelerated depreciation provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will boost GDP growth by almost a full percentage point next year.”

Although the labor market has cooled from the post-COVID cycle and is now more in line with historic norms, CoBank analysts explain that wage growth near 4% and unemployment below 5% are well within the margin of safety for a growing economy in 2026.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 19, 2025 2025-12-18T17:57:47-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 18, 2025

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday with overbought conditions and some likely profit taking.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 79¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 92¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in Kansas and $225-$230 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $355 in Nebraska and $350-$355 in the western Corn Belt on a light test. There was no reported established trade in the Texas Panhandle.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.79 lower Wednesday afternoon at $356.09/cwt. Select was $2.67 lower at $346.43.

Grain futures were higher on Wednesday, while Soybean futures continued looking for a bottom.

Toward the close, through near Jly, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 228 points. The S&P 500 closed 78 points lower and the NASDAQ was down 418 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.18 to $1.45 higher through the front six contracts.

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As of the end of last week, the comprehensive boxed beef cutout value had declined $40 from its peak of $409.20/cwt. the first week of September, according to Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in is weekly market comments.

While the rib primal usually carries the cutout value during that period, Griffith notes rib value increased only about $13, from $630.76 to $643.29.

“The remaining six primal values have declined over that time period including chuck (-$69.97), round (-$69.01), loin (-$17.85), brisket (-$20.18), plate (-$20.56), and flank (-$55.04),” Griffith says. “The carcass is heavily weighted toward the chuck and round as they comprise a little more than 50% of the carcass. The loin comprises approximately 20% percent of the carcass while the rib is approximately 10% of the carcass. This means the entire carcass is being challenged.”

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 18, 2025 2025-12-17T18:42:10-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 17, 2025

Feeder Cattle futures led Live Cattle higher on Tuesday.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.15 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 30¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in Kansas and $225-$230 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $355 Nebraska and $350-$355 in the western Corn Belt on a light test. There was no reported established trade in the Texas Panhandle.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 58¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $358.88/cwt. Select was $1.80 higher at $349.10.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday.

Toward the close, Corn futures were 3¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower.  Soybean futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Tuesday, pressured by a sluggish national employment outlook.

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was also little changed from the previous report in September at 4.6%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged 5¢ higher in November to $36.86. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 302 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower, but the NASDAQ was up 54 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.50 to $1.70 lower through the front six contracts.

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Current cattle numbers suggest beef production will continue losing ground for the next couple of years, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Decreased beef production is the result of smaller U.S. calf crops for seven consecutive years since 2018,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “The feeder cattle supply continues to tighten as a result, leading to lower feedlot production, decreased cattle slaughter and lower beef production.”

Decreased beef cow culling the last three years may enable the national cow herd to stabilize in 2026, Peel says. However, he adds, “There is currently no indication of significant heifer retention, and it will not be possible to hold the herd inventory stable, and certainly not to rebuild inventories, without additional heifer retention. Therefore, beef production is expected continue decreasing for the next couple years, likely leading to even higher beef prices.”

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 17, 2025 2025-12-16T17:15:15-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 16, 2025

Cattle futures closed mostly higher Monday with follow-through support from last week’s higher cash prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 56¢ higher (30¢ to $1.12 higher). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 43¢ higher, except for an average of 64¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $5 higher in Kansas at $230/cwt., $5 higher in Nebraska at $225-$230, and $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $225-$230. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were mostly $10-$15 higher at mainly $355 and $10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $350-$355 in a light test.

There was no reported established trade in the Texas Panhandle last week.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $6.98 higher at $228.19. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $11.01 higher at $353.62.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.02 higher Monday afternoon at $359.46/cwt. Select was $3.08 higher at $347.30.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Through mid-afternoon, Corn futures were 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday,  pressured by AI stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 41 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 137 points.

Through mid-afternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 49¢ to 76¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered expected feeder calf prices for next year in the December Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Compared to the previous month, the projected fourth-quarter price for Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs. and selling at Oklahoma City was $4 less at $354/cwt.

“In November, the weighted-average price for feeder steers weighing 750–800 pounds at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was $346.18/cwt., a decline of nearly $30 from October,” say ERS analysts. “The decline is notable as feeder steer prices set an all-time record of $383.48/cwt. in the second week of October. On a very low number of calves sold on Nov. 24, feeder steer prices dropped to $317.71/cwt. Two weeks later, on Dec. 8, prices rebounded to $343.96/cwt.”

For next year, the ERS forecasts the feeder steer price at $340 in the first quarter and $343 in the second quarter for an annual 2026 price of $345.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS lowered estimated five-area direct fed steer prices, compared to the previous month, in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

For this year, the fourth-quarter price dropped $8 to $226/cwt. and the annual average price declined $2 to $223.97. For 2026, projected prices declined $12 in the first quarter to $230, $9 in the second quarter to $234 and $12 in the third quarter to $236. The annual 2026 average price was $11 lower at $235. Price reductions were based on recent price data and the announced loss of packing capacity.

“Looking ahead to 2026, lower year-over-year placements of calves in feedlots are still expected for the fourth quarter of 2025 and in the first half of 2026, which are expected to support record prices next year, albeit lower than previously projected,” ERS analysts say.

Compared to the previous month, the ERS increased expected 2025 beef production by 194 million pounds to 25.95 billion pounds, based on the faster rate of fed and non-fed slaughter in the fourth quarter, as well as heavier dressed weights. That would be 1 billion pounds less than last year (-3.8%)

Estimated 2026 production of 25.73 billion pounds would be 225 million pounds less (-0.9%) than this year’s estimated total.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 16, 2025 2025-12-15T18:26:05-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 15, 2025

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices were $230/cwt., which was $5 higher in Kansas, $5-$10 higher in Nebraska, and $10 higher in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $10-$15 higher at $355.

Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $340-$345. Two weeks earlier, FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle were $215-$220.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ lower Friday afternoon at $357.44/cwt. Select was 76¢ higher at $344.22.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 596,000 head was 4,000 head fewer than the previous week and 14,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated total year-to-date cattle slaughter of 27.9 million head was 2.1 million head fewer (-6.9%). Year-to-date estimated beef production of 24.4 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.2%) than the same time last year.

Cattle futures settled lower Friday on likely profit taking and week-end positioning.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.28 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.36 lower.

Soybean futures led the grain complex lower Friday, with lingering uncertainty over the trade deal with China. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 16¢ lower through Nov. ’26 and then 8¢ to 9¢ lower.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 5¢ lower through Jly ‘27. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ lower through Jly ’27, after 16¢ lower in spot Dec.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 245 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 73 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 398 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 16¢ to 32¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports continued to lose ground in September, according to delayed USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Exports for the month of 80,835 metric tons were 22% less year over year and the least since June 2020. Export value of $660.9 million, also down 22% and the lowest since February 2021. Even when excluding China, beef export volume fell 11% year-over-year, due in part to lower production.

January-September beef exports totaled 856,023 mt, down 11% from a year ago (and down 4% when excluding China). Export value was down 10% to $7.03 billion.

While U.S. pork exports held steady in September, Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO says, “The situation is obviously much more challenging on the beef side, primarily due to the ongoing impasse with the Chinese government, which continues to ignore its commitments under the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement. U.S. industry losses continue to mount as a result of this lockout, and relief simply cannot come soon enough.”

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is conducting a Section 301 investigation of China’s implementation of the U.S.-China Economic and Trade Agreement, popularly known as the Phase One Agreement, with a public hearing set for Tuesday, Dec. 16. USMEF submitted comments to USTR detailing China’s failure to meet its Phase One commitments on red meat trade.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 15, 2025 2025-12-14T18:05:45-05:00

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This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.