Cattle Current Daily—Apr. 15

Cattle Current Daily—Apr. 15

Based on USDA reports through late Friday afternoon, the only trendable negotiated cash fed cattle trade for the week was steady money in the Southern Plains at $124/cwt.

Week-end positioning, reduced tonnage from another storm and the promise of grilling-season demand helped lift Cattle futures on Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 66¢ higher. 

Except for unchanged in spot Apr and an average of 29¢ lower in the back two contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ higher. 

Corn futures closed fractionally higher through Sep ’20 and then mostly fractionally lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally lower. 

Wholesale beef values were steady on Choice and higher on Select with moderate to fairly good demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 1¢ higher Friday afternoon at $228.84/cwt. Select was $1.07 higher at $221.02. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday. Support included quarterly earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase and surging Disney shares, tied to its new streaming service. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 269 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 19 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 36 points.

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Measured against history, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) say the expansion phase of the current cattle cycle is typical. It may be the liquidation phase that runs against the grain.

In the latest Livestock Monitor, LMIC analysts explain cyclical herd growth since the 1970’s lasts 5-7 years, with peak numbers usually fewer than the apex of the previous cycle. The liquidation phases usually takes 5-8 years. Currently, they estimate beef cow numbers at the beginning of next year to be about the same as this year; then a negligible reduction.

“Even though cow-calf returns are dramatically below a few years ago, most producers are not faced with financial stress to force substantial breeding herd reductions,” LMIC analysts say. “That is a contrast to most recent cattle cycles. In several areas of the U.S. drought, floods, and/or brutal winter weather has impacted and could continue to ratchet down cowherd numbers. But the economics suggest the most modest cyclical herd downturn since the 1958-67 inventory cycle.”

2019-04-13T16:24:44-05:00

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