Cattle futures, already weakened by last week’s lower cash fed cattle trade and Choice wholesale beef values, crumbled Monday with another round of panic selling tied to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows linked to a rare case in humans (see below).
Live Cattle closed an average of $4.91 lower (45¢ lower at the back to $6.10 lower).
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.91 lower.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Services.
Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt., $2-$3 lower in Kansas at $185-$186, steady to $1lower in Nebraska at $189-$190 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn belt at $188-190. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $3 lower in Nebraska at 299-$302 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $299-300.
The five-area weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $1.33 lower at $188.23/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.64 lower at $299.49.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ lower Monday afternoon at $305.74/cwt. Select was $1.64 lower at $301.79/cwt.
Corn futures closed 1¢ to 6¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower.
KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 5¢ to 9¢ lower.
Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly lower Monday amid rising treasury yields.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 240 points lower. The S&P 5 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 17 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 13¢ to 54¢ higher through the front six contracts.
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On Monday, the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) reported the first human case of novel avian influenza A(H5N1) in Texas.
“The patient became ill following contact with dairy cows presumed to be infected with avian influenza. The patient’s primary symptom was conjunctivitis,” according to the DSHS Health Alert. “This is the second case of avian influenza A(H5N1) identified in a person in the United States and is believed to be associated with the recent detections of avian influenza A(H5N1) in dairy cows announced by the Texas Animal Health Commission. DSHS along with local, regional, state, and federal partners, is investigating this ongoing situation. Avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses have only rarely been transmitted from person to person. As such, the risk to the general public is believed to be low; however, people with close contact with affected animals suspected of having avian influenza A(H5N1) have a higher risk of infection.”
Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) provide some market perspective regarding last week’s confirmation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle, before yesterday’s announced link to a human infection.
“Public perception is of primary concern at the moment,” LMIC analysts say in the latest Livestock Monitor. “So far, no trading partners have backed away from U.S. dairy products as a whole but consumers may have a different view. This story has already been picked up by major U.S. media outlets and circulated. Public perception will also hinge on how the disease spreads within dairy herds and if virus mutations reach a level of public concern. At the moment it does not appear to be transferable from cow to cow. However, it is entering migratory bird season, which increases the chances of wild birds interacting with domesticated animals. Points of transmission can be any shared spaces. Think: water tanks, feed bunks, rafters, etc.”
As for production implications, LMIC analysts explain losses are expected to be significant and short lived for infected cattle.
“There are implications for both down (public perception) and upside (lower production) price risk, but it is still early in the situation to make a definitive call,” say LMIC analysts.