Cattle Current Daily—Apr. 28, 2020

Cattle Current Daily—Apr. 28, 2020

Cattle futures started the week with modest gains, amid sluggish trade and supported by outside markets, as well as Friday’s bullish Cattle on Feed report.

Except for 17¢ lower in spot Apr, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.01 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 67¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values continued to rocket higher with the bottleneck in packer capacity disrupting the supply chain.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $18.47 higher Monday afternoon at a record high of $311.84/cwt. Select was $19.76 higher at $298.78.

Corn futures closed 6¢ to 10¢ lower through Mar ’21 and then mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again on Monday, with optimism that some states are nearing at least partial reopening. Gains came despite another rugged day for oil prices: West Texas Intermediate on the CME closed $1.20 to $4.16 lower through the front six contracts; spot Jun closed at $12.78.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 358 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ closed 95 points higher.

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“There will be at least several more months of this economic environment, and it could easily stretch into 2021,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor.

With volatile and uncertain markets in mind, those analysts offer four suggestions to cow-calf producers.

First, LMIC analysts say to monitor forage availability on the operation, as always, but also keep track of it locally and regionally.

“Pasture conditions this year will be critical to regional and national marketing flows of calves and yearlings,” according to LMIC analysts. “Many more animals are headed to spring and summer grazing programs than in recent years because of the drop in the number of animals being placed into feedlots, a trend that may continue for several months. Poor pasture and range conditions could cause bunches of cattle to move into the markets quickly. Further, more winter feed will be required if producers who typically don’t hold over calves into the new calendar year, did so in 2020.”

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the start to growing season is off to a drier start than last year. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 26.92% of the nation was classified from D0 (abnormally dry) to D4 (exceptional drought), for the week of Apr. 21. That’s 14.57% more than the same week last year.

Next, LMIC analysts suggest keeping an eye on feedlot placements provided by the National Agricultural Service (NASS), in the monthly Cattle on Feed report. They explain the data provides some insight to how aggressive feedlots are replacing cattle and at what weights. Conversely, it offers a notion of the number of cattle left to be placed.

Third, monitor feedstuff availability and prices, especially corn.

“Be aware of trends in soybean meal and in hay prices. The two major drivers of calf and yearling prices are fed animal prices and the cost of gain in a feedlot,” LMIC analysts explain. “Critical will be the number of corn acres planted in the Midwestern states. Beginning with planting season, the markets will focus on spring and early summer growing conditions. Low feedstuff costs can become a supportive market factor for late summer and early fall yearling and calf prices. Drought will do the opposite.”

Finally, they say to pay attention to the dairy business. One option available to hard-pressed producers in that sector is cow culling, which could pressure prices further, depending on the level and timing.

“Prepare for price volatility,” say LMIC analysts. “As conditions change, be ready to adjust marketing plans. It is especially important to communicate with family, partners, and financial institutions.”

2020-04-27T20:51:26-05:00

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