Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
For the week, live prices were $3-$5 higher in the Southern Plains at $170/cwt., $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $172-$177 and $5-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt at $175-$177. Dressed prices were $5-$8 higher at $275-$280.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.33 higher Friday afternoon at $290.98/cwt. Select was 85¢ lower at $275.78/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $8.91 higher and Select was $5.06 higher.
Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was 603,000 head, which was 48,000 head fewer than the previous week and 62,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Total estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 8.8 million head was 253,000 head less (-2.8%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 7.24 billion pounds was 342 million pounds less (-4.5%).
Futures markets were closed on observance of Good Friday. Week to week on Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.67 higher (85¢ higher at the back to $3.52 higher at the front). That was an average of $6.14 higher over the past two weeks.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.15 higher week to week on Thursday (72¢ higher at the front to $3.55 higher at the back). That was an average of $8.94 higher over the past two weeks.
Equity markets were closed for Good Friday.
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USDA estimated acreage for principal crops almost 6 million acres more for this year compared to last, in the recent Perspective Plantings report. If those expectations are fulfilled and Mother Nature allows trend line yields, then increased production should moderate feed prices. However, other factors could keep the price floor higher, say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor.
“LMIC estimates the season average price will be $5.45 per bushel in 2023/2024. The current marketing year, LMIC has adjusted exports lower,” LMIC analysts say. “Troubles with the South American crop are expected to not allow U.S. corn prices to come down meaningfully. LMIC forecasts a $6.95 per bushel season average price for this marketing year. Omaha corn price has been over $7 per bushel for 22 weeks this season and only briefly dipped below $6.50 for a week.”
As for hay, USDA-estimated acres were slightly lower than LMIC projections ahead of the report.
“Original forecasts were for a 3% increase in hay acres, driven by other hay. Forecasts were revised to a 2.4% increase for the 2023/2024 marketing year,” LMIC analysts say. “Prices remain elevated and continue to be tweaked as we enter the tail end of the 2022/2023 marketing year. Alfalfa prices are projected at $270 per ton nationally this year and $235 per ton next year. Other hay prices are estimated at $170 per ton this year and $155 per ton next year.”