Corn and soybean futures climbed again Friday with confirmation of ending stock expectations in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).
Corn futures closed mostly 5¢ to 11¢ higher.
Soybean futures closed 35¢ to 43¢ higher in the front three contracts and then 18¢ to 29¢ higher.
Cattle futures traded in a narrow range, capped by grain market strength and signs of weakening beef prices.
Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Friday, from an average of 34¢ lower to an average of 9¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they closed an average of $2.97 lower ($1.25 to $6.75 lower), with most of the pressure in nearby contracts.
Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 16¢ lower to an average of 24¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they closed an average of 83¢ lower, except for an average of 50 higher in three contracts.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Live prices last week were steady to $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $137-$138/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $138-$140 and generally $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $140. Dressed prices were steady at $222.
Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 676,000 head was 37,000 head more than the previous week and 3,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 9.1 million head is 61,000 more than the same time last year. Estimated total year-to-date beef production of 7.6 billion lbs. is 72.9 million lbs. more than the same time last year.
Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 93¢ lower Friday afternoon at $270.47/cwt. Select was 89¢ lower at $260.33.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday with weekly losses as investors wrestled with higher inflation and interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 137 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 186 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.98 to $2.23 higher through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) left the expected five-area direct fed steer price this year unchanged from the previous month at $139.50/cwt., in the latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). That would be $17.10 more than in 2021. Prices are projected to be $139.25 in the first quarter, $139 in the second, $136 in the third and $143 in the fourth.
That’s with beef production estimated to be 140 million lbs. more than the previous month at 27.7 billion lbs., with higher expected first-quarter placements supporting increased fed cattle slaughter and with more expected non-fed cattle slaughter. The total would be 367 million lbs. less (-1.3%) than last year.
Projected total red meat and poultry production of 106.2 billion lbs. would be 624 million lbs. less (-0.58%) than last year.
Corn
ERS increased the expected 2021-22 season-average farm price for corn by 15¢ to $5.80/bu., based on observed prices to date. Ending stocks were unchanged at 1.44 billion bu. With an anticipated increase in corn used for ethanol production offsetting a reduction in feed and residual use.
Soybeans
ERS left the 2021-22 season-average farm price for soybeans unchanged at $13.25/bu. and the soybean meal price unchanged at $420/short ton, but increased the soybean oil price 2¢ to 70.0¢/lb. A lower soybean meal export forecast is offset by slightly higher domestic disappearance. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 260 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.
Wheat
ERS increased the season-average farm price for wheat 10¢ to $7.60/bu. Based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices for the remainder of 2021-22. That would be the highest price since 2012-13. That’s with projected stable supplies, lower domestic use, reduced exports and higher ending stocks.