Cattle futures were higher Wednesday, continuing to backfill the gap left by tariff pressures. Positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report — due out Thursday rather than the usual Friday — could have lent added support. Estimates ahead of the report peg March placements about 3.5% higher year over year and the on-feed inventory April 1 down close to 2%.
Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.23 higher (27¢ higher at the back to $2.27 higher at the front), except for 15¢ lower in away-Aug.
Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ higher (45¢ higher at the back to $1.65 higher toward the front), except for 5¢ lower in Mar.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand in the western Corn Belt to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $204/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $208 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $327-$328.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.90 lower Wednesday afternoon at $333.53/cwt. Select was 85¢ lower at $314.39.
Grain and Soybean futures were higher Wednesday, helped along by the lower U.S. dollar.
Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks and tariff-related cost increases.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 699 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 120 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 516 points.
Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.00 to $1.28 higher through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service increased expected feeder cattle prices for the remainder of this year, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.
Based on price data through early April and weaker expected first-quarter feedlot placements, compared to the previous month, forecast prices increased $7 in the second quarter to $280/cwt., $8 in the third quarter to $282 and $7 in the fourth quarter to $286. The annual average price increased $6.28 to $281.03. Prices are basis Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City.
ERS analysts note 15% fewer calves and feeder cattle traded at auction, direct and via video-internet during the first two months of 2025 than the same period last year, as reported in the National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary.
“This is likely due to a 75% year-over-year decline in feeder cattle imports due to restrictions on cattle from Mexico over the first two months of the year,” ERS analysts say. “This has led to feedlots in Kansas and Texas placing 5% and 21% fewer cattle, respectively, in January and February, compared to the same period last year. Although, the weekly volume of feeder cattle imports from Mexico is expected to improve moving forward, annual volume is projected below year-ago levels.”
As reported in Cattle Current last week, the ERS increased the forecast five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year, compared to the previous month’s outlook, in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Based on forecast strong consumer beef demand, projected prices increased $3 to $205/cwt. in the first quarter, $6 in the second quarter to $204, $8 in the third quarter to $206 and $7 in the fourth quarter to $207.
Compared to the previous month’s outlook, beef production was projected 15 million pounds more year over year at 26.7 billion pounds. If so, it would be 288 million pounds less than last year (-1.1%). The increased estimate for this year was based on heavier projected dressed weights and higher cow and bull slaughter, partially offset by lower steer and heifer slaughter.