Cattle futures closed higher again Monday with surging wholesale beef values and follow-through support tied to USDA’s aggressive plans to combat New World Screwworm while leaving the U.S. border closed to Mexican cattle.
Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.31 higher (15¢ to $1.82 higher). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.97 higher.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were steady in Kansas at $235/cwt., steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $243-$245/cwt. and steady in the western Corn Belt at $240-$245. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 higher in at $380-$385. The previous week, FOB live prices were $235 in the Texas Panhandle.
Wholesale beef prices continued to press higher Monday, helped along by packers restricted production. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.67 higher Monday afternoon at $404.24. Select was $6.38 higher at $377.14.
Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday. Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 34 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 6 points.
Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 59¢ to 69¢ higher through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projected feeder steer prices significantly higher, compared to the previous month, in the August Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.
Based on recent price strength and fewer cattle for feedlot placement than previously expected, forecast prices increased by $31 in the third and fourth quarters of this year to $343/cwt. and $345, respectively. The estimated annual average price for 2025 increased $15.50 to $316.79. Prices are basis Med. and Lag. #1 steers weighing 700-850 lbs. selling at Oklahoma City.
Price expectations for next year increased even more. ERS raised estimated prices $41 in the first quarter of 2026 to $348 and by $38 in the second quarter to $350. Next year’s projected average price increased $38 to $350.25.
“With respect to the future number of placements that might be available in late 2025 and 2026, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service provided an initial estimate of the 2025 calf crop in the mid-year Cattle report. The
2025 estimate is 33.1 million head, a decline of 1.3% from the 2024 calf crop,” ERS analysts say. “The year-over-year decline confirms that a smaller pool of calves will be available for either retention or placement in feedlots in 2025. Based on the smaller size of the 2025 calf crop, the outlook is lowered for feedlot placements for late 2025 and early 2026.”
As mentioned recently in Cattle Current, ERS also boosted expected fed steer prices in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Compared to the previous month, projected weighted average five-area direct fed steer prices increased $12 for the third quarter to $238/cwt. and $11 in the fourth quarter to $240 for an annual average price of $227.06, which was $5.75 higher.
That was with beef production for this year estimated to be 262 million pounds less (-1%) than the previous month at 25.9 billion pounds, based on reduced fed and non-fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights. The total would be 1.1 billion pounds less (-3.9%) than last year).
For next year, compared to the previous month, projected fed steer prices increased $15 in the first quarter to $242 and $15 in the second quarter to $243. The estimated 2026 average fed steer price increased $15 to $244.