At $109/cwt. Thursday, negotiated cash fed cattle trade in the Southern Plains was $1.50 lower than the previous week, amid moderate trade and light to moderate demand. Live trade in other regions this week was generally steady to $1 lower at $108-$110, but mostly $109.00-$109.50. Dressed sales were steady to $1 either side of even at $172-$174.
Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed to lower Thursday, pressured by softer cash prices and perhaps some positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Trade continued sluggish and open interest continued to decline.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of 35¢ lower.
Feeder Cattle futures closed 25¢ lower to 32¢ higher.
Wholesale beef values were firm on moderate demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 33¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $214.37/cwt. Select was 2¢ higher at $203.99.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by trade worries and White House legal issues.
The Dow Jones Industrial average closed 76 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 10 points.
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Unsurprisingly, given drought-forced cattle movement, there’s plenty of range in expectations for Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the analyst or survey considered, July placements will be 5-8% more than the prior year, July marketings will be from 2% less to 5% more and the Aug. 1 cattle on feed number will be 4-5% more.
For instance, according to Allendale, Inc., “July Placements are expected to be 8.7% over last year at 1.756 million head. This is the largest July placement in six years. It would also mark three months in a row of higher than last year placements. High placements have been seen despite profitability concerns.”
Allendale anticipates a July marketing total of 1.2% less than the previous year for a total of 1.763 million. The firm expects total cattle on feed Aug. 1 of 11.224 million head, which would be 5.8% more than last year and a record high since the current data-series began in 1996.
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U.S. beef production, was 6% more than the previous July at 2.23 billion lbs., according to the monthly USDA Livestock Slaughter report released Thursday. Total cattle slaughter of 2.77 million head was also 6% higher. The average live weight was 3 lbs. lighter at 1,330 lbs. Keep in mind, there was one more workday this July. Accumulated beef production for January through July was 4% more than the same period last year at 15.42 billion lbs.
Likewise, pork production was 6% more year over year at 1.99 billion lbs. Hog slaughter totaled 9.60 million head, up 6% from July 2017. The average live weight was unchanged from the previous year, at 277 lbs.
In July, U.S. commercial red meat production was 6% more than the previous year at 4.24 billion lbs. For January through July, commercial red meat production was 4% more at 30.5 billion lbs.