Cattle futures opened higher Monday, supported by the lower July feedlot placements in Friday’s Cattle on Feed report but then turned negative with pressure including last week’s lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices and negative psychology surrounding Monday’s re-opening of the port of entry in Douglas, Ariz., to feeder cattle imports from Mexico.
Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.04 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.05 lower.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
FOB live prices last week were mostly $2-$3 lower in Nebraska at mainly $225-$226/cwt. and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $225. Dressed delivered trades were mostly $7-$12 lower in Nebraska at mainly $355-$356 and mainly $7-$13 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $355.
Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $3.51 lower at $225.01. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer prices was $9.54 lower at $355.54.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was unchanged Monday afternoon at $385.69/cwt. Select was $3.70 higher at $365.02.
Grain and Soybean closed mixed on Monday.
Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 7¢ higher, as traders tried to price lower expected yields.
Soybean futures were 8¢ to 14¢ lower, pressured by bean oil.
Kansas City HRW Wheat were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Monday, pressured by chip stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 140 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 21 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 200 points.
Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.19 to $2.04 lower through the front six contracts.
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USDA re-opened the port of entry to Mexican Feeder cattle imports on Monday, amid plenty of wonderment about how many cattle are set to cross, what kind of cattle and how fast.
For historic perspective, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University explains Mexican cattle imports averaged 1.17 million head per year from 2004 to 2023, ranging from 702,600 head in 2008 to 1.47 million head in 2012.
“Mexican cattle imports are highly correlated to drought conditions in Mexico, with severe drought causing unsustainable spikes in cattle imports which tend to average out,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “A five-year moving average of Mexican cattle imports only shows about 222,000 head variation across years.”
On average, Peel explains 36% of annual Mexican cattle imports cross from September through December.
“If the border was fully open, the average of 1.17 million head annually implies that roughly 421,000 head could cross by the end of the year. Based on history, it might be possible for 90-100,000 head of cattle to cross at the Douglas port in the last four months of the year,” Peel says. “If we suppose that Santa Teresa and Columbus, New Mexico open one month later, an additional 125-175,000 head could be imported by the end of the year. It is unlikely that many, if any, spayed heifers will be imported initially, so the above estimates are likely too high.”
Moreover, Peel notes it will likely take several weeks for ports to return to full capacity.
“For the remainder of 2026, up to 250,000 head total might be possible but 150,000 head is probably a more reasonable estimate of Mexican cattle imports by the end of the year,” Peel says.