Cattle futures mainly extended gains Tuesday with hopes the near bottom has been carved, supported by ongoing relative demand strength.
Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.35 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 55¢ higher, except for an average of 25¢ lower in the front two contracts.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$184 in Kansas, $184 in Nebraska and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.93 lower Tuesday afternoon, at $311.97/cwt. Select was 6¢ higher at $300.25.
Grain futures were higher Tuesday, with apparent recent producer selling and the cheaper U.S. dollar providing support.
Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 12¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 9¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed but to the upside Tuesday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 29 points.
At late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.20 to $1.66 lower through the front six contracts.
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Compared to the previous quarterly report, USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service increased projected U.S. beef export value $300 million higher to $9.4 billion for fiscal year 2024 (FY24), driven by higher unit values and strong demand in Japan, Mexico, and Taiwan.
However, the latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade forecast beef export value $1 billion less than this year to $8.4 billion in fiscal year 2025 (FY25), as lower U.S. production reduces exportable supplies.
Overall FY25 livestock, poultry, and dairy exports were projected at $38.6 billion, down $100 million from FY24, as the decline in beef exports is mostly offset by higher exports of pork, poultry, variety meats, and dairy products.
U.S. FY25 agricultural exports were forecast at $169.5 billion, down $4.0 billion from the revised forecast for FY24. This decline is primarily driven by lower unit values of soybeans, corn, and cotton, as well as lower volumes of beef.
For context, world per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to reach 3.2% percent in calendar year 2024 (CY24) and continue at that pace through CY25.
“Much of the global economy sees easing inflation in goods and increasing wages supporting consumer spending,” according to the report. “However, global GDP growth is subdued by continued strong inflation for services and continuing tight monetary policy as many central banks wait on the United States before relaxing interest rates to avoid shocks to investment that could adversely affect exchange rates.”
U.S. GDP is expected to rise 2.7% in CY24 and then slow to 1.9% percent in CY25 2025.