Cattle futures were lower Thursday, pressured by steady to weaker cash fed cattle prices and the recent decline in wholesale beef values.
Heading into the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.45 lower, except for $1 higher in expiring spot Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.28 lower.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in all regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
So far this week, FOB live prices are $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $182/cwt. and steady at $184 in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices are $1-$3 lower at $292.
Last week, FOB live prices were $183/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $184-$188 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $293-$295.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.37 higher Thursday afternoon, at $308.66/cwt. Select was $1.44 lower at $296.19.
Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday with traders apparently adding some weather premium.
Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mainly 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 11¢ to 14¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, with support including fewer week-to-week initial unemployment insurance claims.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 243 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.
At midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.15 to $1.41 higher through the front six contracts.
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“Increased supplies, a strong dollar and several other factors have caused prices for many agricultural commodities to fall sharply from their 2022 peak levels. In the absence of new shocks to the weather, the macroeconomy or policy, projected prices generally remain near current levels over the next five years,” according to the Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets from the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri.
“The cattle sector is the most important exception to the pattern of declining commodity prices,” according to FAPRI. “Past years of drought and low returns have resulted in a smaller U.S. beef cow herd, reducing beef production and pushing up prices for feeder and slaughter animals.”
FAPRI projects the U.S. beef cow herd declining to 28 million to begin 2025 and then growing slowly to 29.5 million in 2029.
Prices for steers (600-650 lbs., Oklahoma City) are projected at an average of $283.70/cwt. this year, rising to $289.65 next year and then declining to $260.77 in 2029.
FAPRI forecasts the five-area direct average fed steer price at $187.95 this year, rising to $191.52 next year and then declining to $260.77 in 2029.