Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week ended up $1-$3 higher at $119/cwt. ($116 in the western Corn Belt). Dressed trade was steady to $4 higher at $187.
Feeder Cattle futures gained some ground Monday, amid limited trade, while Live Cattle closed narrowly mixed, despite stronger cash prices and wholesale beef values.
Live Cattle futures closed 32¢ lower to 32¢ higher.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 67¢ higher.
Wholesale beef values were firm to higher on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.13 higher Monday afternoon at $215.42/cwt. Select was 44¢ higher at $200.94.
Extreme volatility continued on Wall Street Monday with steep losses early and then recovery later on, led by tech stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 34 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 51 points.
“The latest meat trade data shows that meat exports are continuing to help offset record meat production in 2018,” explains Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in December market comments. “Each of the major meats—beef, pork and poultry—are projected to reach record levels in 2018 and will combine to push total U.S meat production to a record level of 102.3 billion lbs., up 2.6% year over year. However, 2018 per capita meat consumption in the U.S. is projected at 218.7 lbs., up 1.0% year over year. The smaller increase in meat consumption compared to production is largely due to the net movement of meat offshore through meat exports. Thus far in 2018 (January-October), total meat exports of 13.3 billion lbs. consist of broiler (44.0%); pork (36.3%); and beef (19.7%).
Moreover, Peel explains U.S. meat exports are forecast to increase next year, while total meat imports are forecast to decrease.
“Continued improvements in the net trade balance will be critical to partially offset total 2019 meat production forecast at 103.7 billion lbs., up 1.4% year over year and another record level,” Peel says. “Domestic per capita total meat consumption is forecast to hold steady in 2019.”
However, Peel also pointed out earlier this fall, “There is general agreement that trade disruptions will likely reduce U.S. and global macroeconomic growth in 2019. While the beef industry has avoided most of the direct tariff impacts thus far, indirect tariff impacts will continue to grow unless the trade situation is resolved very soon. Consumers will see growing tariff impacts that may impact consumer spending and beef demand…Tariff-driven price increases could push consumers to cheap and abundant pork and poultry at the expense of beef demand.”