Cattle futures firmed but closed mixed on Tuesday.
Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.80 higher. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed from an average of 21¢ lower, to an average of 19¢ higher.
Given the temporary suspension of Mexican cattle imports, and the timing late last month, it will be interesting to see how traders position ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the source, analyst estimates ahead of the report see November placements about 4% less year over year and marketings down about 2%, leaving cattle on feed Dec. 1 about even.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $191-$192/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $191 in Kansas, $195 in Nebraska and $193-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $300-$305.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.74 lower Tuesday afternoon at $315.63/cwt. Select was $1.07 lower at $288.50.
Grain and Soybean futures softened Tuesday.
Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower.
******************************
Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday with apparent profit taking and repositioning ahead of the Fed’s next decision about interest rates on Wednesday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 267 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 64 points.
Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 41¢ to 47¢ lower through the front six contracts.
******************************
Calf prices are ending the year on an extraordinarily strong note.
“Calf prices for 5- and 6-weight animals in the Southern Plains have advanced better than $50/cwt. in the last four weeks, and prices for 4- and 5-weight animals have moved further,” says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center.
Koontz points out calf price strength belies firming grain prices and the looming seasonal decline in wholesale beef values.
Likewise, while strong, Koontz views cash fed cattle prices as rangebound while steer carcass weights are averaging about 40 pounds more year over year with fed heifers following a similar trend. He says both the heavier weights and front-loaded fed cattle inventory will likely hang over the market.
“The calculated cattle on feed over 150 days has been larger than any of the proceeding years – other than 2020 – but this inventory has been moving lower through the summer and fall with exception of November,” Koontz explains. “The pipeline is full for the near term and less so into next year. But then there are first-quarter packer margins to navigate.”