While volatility continued in outside markets Tuesday, Cattle futures managed to retrace some of the previous session’s losses …There’s a wide gap in expectations for placements in the looming Cattle on Feed report… coming up on your Cattle Current Market Update with Wes Ishmael.
As expected, negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Tuesday afternoon.
Cattle futures firmed, amid continued light trade, apparently spurred along by short covering, more than anything.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ higher.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 91¢ higher.
Corn futures closed most 1¢ higher.
Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.
Wholesale beef values were steady on Choice and higher on Select with light to moderate demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 1¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $212.68/cwt. Select was 97¢ higher at $204.73.
Major U.S. financial indices eked out gains Tuesday, amid another stormy day of trading. Pressure continued to stem, in part, from worries about slowing global economic growth, tied to unresolved trade issues.
Domestically, the angst was compounded by an expected rise in interest rates Wednesday, another slide in crude oil prices
Spot CME crude oil (WTI) closed at $46.24, the lowest in more than a year. Contracts for the next 12 months were down $3.36 to $3.64.
Pressure also included an anemic outlook from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell four points to 56 in December on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) with persistent concerns about housing affordability. Although this is the lowest HMI reading since May 2015, builder sentiment remains in positive territory.
“We are hearing from builders that consumer demand exists, but that customers are hesitating to make a purchase because of rising home costs,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, LA “However, recent declines in mortgage interest rates should help move the market forward in early 2019.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 82 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 30 points.
When the monthly Cattle on Feed report comes out Thursday, it will show either a few more November cattle placements or lots fewer, depending on which analysts and surveys you follow.
For instance, Allendale, Inc. sees November placements 0.9% more than last year. According to the Daily Livestock Report, though, the average estimate of the Urner Barry survey is for a decrease of 6.3%. That represents an estimated difference of 153,000 head.
As for estimated marketings in November, both sources project a year-over-year increase of about 1%.
For Allendale, that leaves an estimated 3.2% more cattle on feed Dec. 1, versus 1.7% more for the average of estimates in the Urner Barry survey.