Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 24-25, 2024

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 24-25, 2024

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Monday with traders appearing to view Friday’s Cattle on Feed report as neutral.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 31¢ higher. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 42¢ lower to an average of 11¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191/cwt., in the Southern Plains on a light test, $195-$195.50 in Nebraska and $195-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 42¢ higher at $194.73. The weighted averaged dressed delivered steer price was $2.20 higher at 305.64.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 13¢ higher Monday afternoon at $315.98/cwt. Select was 84¢ higher at $286.75.

The grain complex was mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 43 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 192 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 15¢ to 20¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle traded from $2/cwt. lower to $2 higher across the nation last week, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service with prices at or near record-high levels. Trade volume at auction, video-internet and direct was 243,000 head, which was 102,300 head more than the same week last year.

“Current high prices are reminiscent of the cyclical peak prices of 2014-15 with both having been provoked by drought exaggerated herd liquidations,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “However, some very important differences mean that the current situation will play out in a much different fashion going forward.”

Peel explains the previous herd expansion from 2014 to 2019 was sharp and rapid with high prices lasting about two years. He adds the pipeline of replacement heifers was building ahead of the expansion, making its degree and speed possible.

“With two years of high prices already in 2023-2024, there is no indication that cyclically high prices will be as short-lived as a decade ago,” Peel says. “The pipeline of replacement heifers has continued to be depleted to this point. The cattle industry has shown no signs of attempting to rebuild the herd yet and the process will be slower when it does happen. The peak prices in 2014-15 coincided with increased heifer retention that squeezed feeder supplies to the tightest levels. Since no heifer retention has occurred yet, the highest prices are ahead, possibly in 2025 but more likely beyond.”

2024-12-23T18:31:28-06:00

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