Cattle futures stabilized Friday, following a week of losses driven by opening of the Mexican border to feeder cattle, discovery of a new bird flu train in dairy cattle, packer-announced production cuts for the coming week and lower cash fed cattle prices.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of 38¢ higher, except for unchanged in near Apr.
Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.82 lower ($3.17 lower at the back to $5.52 lower toward the front).
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 43¢ higher, except for an average of 23¢ lower in the front three contracts.
Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $8.04 lower ($5.87 lower toward the back to $10.82 lower in spot Mar).
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $206/cwt., $2 lower in Nebraska at $208 and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $205-$208. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $328.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.11 lower Friday afternoon at $321.87/cwt. Select was $1.87 lower at $312.90.
Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.81 lower and Select was $4.17 lower.
Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 584,000 head was 16,000 head fewer than the previous week and 33,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 3.3 million head was 304,000 head fewer (-8.5%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated total beef production of 2.8 billion pounds was 124.3 million pounds less (-4.2%).
Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday on likely profit taking and weekend position squaring.
Corn futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ lower through old-crop contracts and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower. However, they closed an average of 6’4¢ higher week to week through the front six contracts.
Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower on Friday.
Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 11¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by inflation worries tied to potential broader tariffs and stronger employment, as well as declining consumer confidence.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 17¢, to $35.87. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 444 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 57 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 268 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 35¢ to 39¢ higher through the front six contracts.
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The U.S. beef industry is poised for another year of strong market performance, driven by tight cattle supplies and robust consumer demand, according to CattleFax analysts at the organization’s Outlook Seminar, held as part of CattleCon 2025 in San Antonio, Texas.
As the beef cowherd enters a stabilization phase following years of contraction, they say resulting supply constraints have shifted market leverage decisively in favor of cattle producers.
Kevin Good, vice president of market analysis at CattleFax, explained the U.S. beef cow herd is expected to see the cycle low to start 2025 at 28 million head, 150,000 head below last year and 3.5 million head from the 2019 cycle highs.
“We expect cow and bull slaughter to continue declining in 2025, with overall numbers down by about 300,000 head to 5.9 million head total. Feeder cattle and calf supplies outside of feedyards will also shrink by roughly 150,000 head, while cattle on feed inventories are starting the year slightly below 2024 levels at 11.9 million head,” according to Good. “With a tighter feeder cattle supply, placement pace will be more constrained, leading to a projected 700,000-head drop in commercial fed slaughter to 24.9 million. After modest growth in 2024, beef production is expected to decline by about 600 million pounds to 26.3 billion in 2025, ultimately reducing net beef supply per person by 0.8 pounds.”
Mike Murphy, CattleFax chief operating officer, forecasted the average 2025 fed steer price at $198/cwt., up $12/cwt. from 2024. All cattle classes are expected to trade higher, and prices are expected to continue to trend upward. The 800-lb. steer price is expected to average $270/cwt., and the 550-lb. steer price is expected to average $340/cwt. Utility cows are expected to average $140/cwt., with bred cows at an average of $3,200/head.
“While the cyclical upswing in cattle prices is expected to persist, the industry must prepare for market volatility and potential risks,” Murphy says. “Producers are encouraged to adopt risk management strategies and closely monitor developments in trade policy, drought conditions, and consumer demand.”