Cattle futures closed lower Tuesday with pressure including less packer production, apparent non-commercial long liquidation and more pessimism around this week’s cash fed cattle price potential.
Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.29 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.68 lower.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in the Southern Plains through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $203/cwt. Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill.
Last week, FOB live prices were $206/cwt. in the Southern Plains $208 in Nebraska and $205-$208 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $328.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.04 lower Tuesday afternoon at $322.46/cwt. Select was $1.71 lower at $312.21.
Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with traders disappointed by the lack of news in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 8¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 5¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday, after a back-and-forth session with traders weighing the potential domestic impact of newly announced tariffs. President Trump reinstated 25% tariffs on steel imports to the U.S. and imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. aluminum imports.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 123 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 70 points.
Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 93¢ to $1.03 higher through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the expected five-area direct weighted average fed steer price for this year — especially in the first half —in the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
Based on recent prices and continued beef demand strength, ERS increased the forecast price by $11 in the first quarter to $205/cwt., by $6 in the second quarter to $200, by $2 in the third quarter to $198 and by $2 in the fourth quarter to $200. The projected annual average price increased by $5 to $201.
Expected beef production also increased by 775 million pounds (+3%) to 26.6 billion pounds, compared to the previous month’s estimate. This year’s projected beef production would be just 423 million pounds less (-1.6%) than last year.
In addition to the recent resumption of beef cattle imports from Mexico, ERS analysts cited the larger estimated calf crop than expected, and the smaller decline in cattle outside feedlots than expected, in the recent Cattle report.
“As a result, higher placements are expected for the year and slaughteris raised, primarily in the second half of the year,” say ERS analysts.