Cattle futures closed lower at the end of a volatile session Friday. Although cash fed cattle prices improved, wariness remained ahead of the semiannual Cattle inventory report (see below), while traders squared books for end of the week and month.
Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.11 lower (47¢ to $2.57 lower), except for 35¢ higher in spot Feb.
Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.66 lower.
Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.14 lower (12¢ to $1.75 lower) except for 95¢ higher in spot Feb. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 78¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in new spot Mar.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate to active on good demand in all cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
For the week, FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt., which was $4-$6 higher in the Texas Panhandle, $4-$7 higher in Kansas, $4-$6 higher in Nebraska and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt.
Dressed delivered prices were $375-$378, which was $5-$8 higher in Nebraska and $8-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 lower Friday afternoon at $365.56/cwt. Select was $1.22 higher at $361.94. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.36 lower and Select was 45¢ lower.
Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 531,000 head was 4,000 head fewer than the previous week and 71,000 head fewer than the same week last year as packers slow production. Estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 2.3 million head was 337,000 head fewer (-12.6%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 2.1 billion pounds was 244.8 million pounds less (-10.5%).
Grain and Soybean futures were lower Friday with likely profit taking and month-end position squaring.
Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower through Jly ‘27. KC HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ to 9¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, with investors squaring books for the end of the month.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 223 points.
Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 19¢ to 27¢ lower through the front six contracts.
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All told, markets will likely view the semiannual Cattle report as neutral to a touch friendly, confirming that beef replacement heifer retention remains sluggish, while the beef cow herd begins the year even smaller.
Beef cows numbered 27.6 million head Jan. 1, which was 284,800 fewer (-1.0%) than a year earlier. Moreover, the beef cow inventory was steady to less year over year in all states with 1 million or more (in order by total head): Texas (-1%); Oklahoma (steady); Missouri (-3%); Nebraska (-1%); South Dakota (steady); Montana (-2%); Kansas (-7%).
Heifers for beef cow replacement of 4.7 million head were 41,700 head more (0.9%) year over year. Year-over-year inventory increased in Texas (8.3%), Oklahoma (1.5%), Nebraska (1.8%) and Montana (1.6%). Replacement inventory remained unchanged in Oklahoma and South Dakota but declined 3.8% in Missouri.
Milk cows of 9.6 million head were 187,500 head more (2%) than the same time last year.
All cattle and calves of 86.2 million head were 316,900 head fewer (-0.3%) year over year.
The number of cattle outside feedlots was 24.5 million head, which was 218,600 head more (0.9%) than a year earlier.