Cattle futures — especially Feeder Cattle — gained Thursday with sharply lower nearby Corn futures, as well as likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.55 higher.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of 25¢ higher.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon. Although too few to trend, there were some early live sales in Nebraska at $164/cwt.
Last week, prices on a live basis were $162 in the southern Plains, $159-$161 in Nebraska and $160-$162 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $257 in Nebraska and $254-$257 in the western Corn Belt.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was unchanged Thursday afternoon at 287.91/cwt. Select was $2.23 higher at $275.87/cwt.
Corn futures closed lower Thursday with much of the pressure likely stemming from the Grains and Oilseeds Outlook shared at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum, which projected 2023/24 production to be the second largest in history (see below).
Corn futures closed 13¢ to 15¢ lower through old-crop contracts and then 4¢ to 7¢ lower through new-crop.
KC HRW Wheat closed 10¢ to 14¢ lower through near Jly and then 3¢ to 7¢ lower.
Soybean futures closed mostly 7¢ to 8¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices eased higher Thursday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 108 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 83 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.30 to $1.44 higher through the front six contracts.
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USDA projects 2023/24 U.S. corn production about 10% more year over year at 15.085 billion bushels, in the Grains and Oilseeds Outlook shared at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum. That would be the second highest production in history and go a long way in shoring up depleted stocks. Much of the gain comes with a projected yield of 181.5 bushels per acre, based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.
“Ending stocks are projected at 1.887 billion bushels, up 620 million from a year ago and resulting in stocks relative to use at 13.0%, which if realized would be the highest since 2019/20,” according to the Outlook. “The season-average corn price received by producers is forecast down $1.10 to $5.60 per bushel.”
The Livestock and Poultry Outlook (LPO) at the same Forum underscored bullish cattle price expectations.
USDA projects the five-area direct weighted average fed steer price for 2023 at a record $159.00/cwt. That would be about $15 more than the previous year and would eclipse the previous record price established in 2014.
“Feeder cattle prices are projected to jump higher in 2023 as feedlots bid on increasingly tighter cattle supplies,” according to the LPO. “Improved pasture conditions, assumed with normal weather, and tighter calf supplies will likely result in increased competition for lighter-weight cattle with stocker operations. Feeder steer prices for 750–800
pound calves are forecast to average $203.00/cwt., compared to $165.94 in 2022 and nearly equal to record prices in 2014.”