Cattle futures gained Thursday with support from lower feed futures and the likelihood of fewer Mexican cattle imports when new tariffs begin.
Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 67¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 higher.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Southern Plains to limited on very light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $199/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $199-$200 in Nebraska and $199-$201 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $315.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.72 lower Thursday afternoon at $311.18/cwt. Select was $1.11 lower at $302.13.
Grain futures were lower again Thursday with likely liquidation prior to the first notice day on Friday, looming U.S. tariffs and intitial domestic grain production estimates (see below).
Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 8¢ to 14¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 15¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, driven by tech stocks and looming U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico presumably starting next week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 193 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 94 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 530 points.
Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.12 to $1.50 higher through the front six contracts.
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USDA projects acres planted to corn, wheat and soybeans to be 1.3 million acres more (+0.6%) year over year at 225 million acres, according to data released at the Agricultural Outlook Forum.
Corn acres were estimated at 90.4 million acres, which would be 3.4 million acres more (+3.8%) than last year.
Wheat acres were projected 900,000 acres more than last year (+1.6%) at 47.0 million acres.
Soybean acres were estimated 3.1 million acres less (-3.6%) at 84.0 million acres.
More specifically…
Corn
The 2025/26 corn crop was projected at a record 15.59 billion bushels, up about 5% from the prior year. Yield was projected at 181.0 bushels per acre, based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.
With beginning stocks down from the prior year, total corn supplies were forecast at a record 17.15 billion bushels. Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 was forecast record high as growth in domestic use is partially offset by lower exports.
Ending stocks were projected at 1.97 billion bushels, up 425 million from a year ago, resulting in stocks relative to use at 12.9%, which if realized would be the highest since 2019/20. The season-average corn price received by producers was forecast 15¢ less year over year at $4.20 per bushel.
Soybeans
U.S. soybean supplies were forecast to rise less than 1% in 2025/26 on higher beginning stocks and a relatively small increase to production. Assuming normal weather conditions, soybean yield was forecast 1.8 bushels per acre more at 52.5 bushels per acre. However higher yield mostly would be offset by lower planted acreage.
With higher exports and crush, soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 were projected 60 million bushels less year over year at 320 million bushels.
Despite lower stocks, ample global supplies will continue to pressure soybean prices. The season-average farm price was projected at $10.00 per bushel, down 10¢ from the previous marketing year.
Wheat
The 2025/26 U.S. wheat outlook was for higher supplies, unchanged total use, and increased ending stocks. U.S. wheat production was projected 2% less than the previous year at 1,926 million bushels on a slight reduction in harvested area and a lower yield.
Despite an expected increase in planted acres, harvested area was forecast slightly lower at 38.4 million acres, based on the 10-year average harvest-to-plant ratio. The all-wheat yield for 2025/26 was projected 2% less year over year at 50.1 bushels per acre, based on a long-term linear trend.
With supplies projected to increase more than total use, 2025/26 ending stocks were raised 4% year over year to 826 million bushels, which would be the most in five years. However, the stocks-to-use ratio of 41% is only minimally higher than 2024/25, resulting in a 2025/26 wheat season-average farm price of $5.50 per bushel, only slightly less than the previous year. Wheat prices are also expected to be supported by corn prices projected only marginally lower in 2025/26.