Cattle futures closed higher Friday, supported by steady to stronger cash fed cattle prices, recovering from the previous session’s sell-off tied to news union workers voted to authorize a strike at the JBS beef packing plant in Greeley, Colo., though no timetable was set for the strike.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.63 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.76 higher.
Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.87 higher (45¢ higher near the front to $4.00 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.34 higher.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in the North to moderate on good to very good demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $5 higher in the Southern Plains at mostly $245/cwt., and mainly steady in the North at $240. Dressed delivered prices were steady with the top end of the previous week’s range at $378.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.08 higher Friday afternoon at $369.33/cwt. Select was $4.16 higher at $364.53. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.77 higher and Select was $2.59 higher.
Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 536,000 head was 8,000 head more than the previous week but 47,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated total year-to-date cattle slaughter of 2.9 million head was 382,000 head fewer (-11.7%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 2.6 billion pounds was 276.1 million pounds less (-9.7%).
Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.
Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher through near Aug and then 4¢ to 7¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Friday as tech stocks recovered from the week’s selloff.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,206 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 133 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 490 points.
Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 26¢ to 52¢ higher through the front six contracts.
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U.S. cattle producers appear ready and able to begin a new cattle cycle marked by slow expansion, according to CattleFax analysts at the organization’s Outlook Seminar last week in Nashville.
“The U.S. cattle and beef industry enters 2026 with strong but volatile market conditions, as historically tight cattle supplies, record-setting beef demand, and elevated policy and weather uncertainty continue to support prices, even as markets appear to near cyclical highs,” according to Mike Murphy, CattleFax chief operating officer. “Tight inventories and exceptional demand remain the dominant forces shaping the market; however, producer demographics, high input costs, and policy uncertainty point to a slow and measured expansion phase.”
Cattle availability will remain constrained in the first half of 2026 due to limited feeder cattle supplies, according to CattleFax. Fed slaughter is projected to decline by 600,000 head, primarily early in the year, and non-fed slaughter is expected to remain historically tight at 5.6 million head. Total commercial beef production is projected to decline again in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025. With imports up 5% and exports down 5%, U.S. per-capita beef supplies are forecast 0.2 lbs. larger in 2026 at 59.2 lbs., the largest since 2010.
Cattle and beef prices are forecast to average steady to higher in 2026, with risk increasing later in the year as markets anticipate larger supplies in 2027.
Cow-calf producers are expected to retain the strongest leverage as the cycle turns, supporting continued profitability for several more years. CattleFax forecasts the average 2026 fed steer price at $224/cwt., steady from 2025. All cattle classes are expected to trade higher, with 800-lb. steer prices expected to average $335/cwt., and 550-lb. steer prices averaging $440/cwt. Utility cows are expected to average $155/cwt., with bred cows at an average of $4,000/head.
“As we look ahead, several factors will shape the trajectory of the beef industry. The potential threat of New World Screwworm and the status of Mexican feeder cattle imports is something we’re watching closely,” Murphy says. “At the same time, shifts in packing capacity are rebalancing market leverage. Finally, the dairy industry will continue to be a growth industry supplying more cattle to the beef industry, following strong financial performance in 2025.”
On the other side of the trade, retail beef demand remained historically strong in 2025, with record retail prices supported by steady consumption and exceptional product quality. Consumer preferences continue to favor high-protein, nutrient-dense foods, reinforcing demand even as higher prices move through the supply chain.
“With 84% of fed cattle grading Choice or higher and 12% grading Prime, the industry is well positioned to sustain premium pricing,” says Kevin Good, CattleFax vice president of market analysis. “Beef demand continues to be anchored by exceptional quality and strong consumer confidence in beef as a premium protein. Even as markets adjust and trade flows shift, the fundamentals supporting long-term beef demand remain solid.”
CattleFax expects 2025 USDA all-fresh retail beef prices to average $9.25/pound, however, CattleFax analysts see consumer resistance to further price increases, even as demand is supported by a strong economy, beef quality and dietary focus on protein.