Cattle futures tried to gain early again in Tuesday’s session but broke back, apparently spurred in part by a knee-jerk reaction to mid-day Choice boxed beef prices which were $4.87/lower; Select was $1.69 lower.
Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.52 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.92 lower.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $190-$193 in Kansas.
The previous week, FOB live prices were $198 in Nebraska and $198-$200 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $314 in Nebraska and $312-$315 in the western Corn Belt.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.81 lower Tuesday afternoon at $325.66/cwt. Select was 41¢ lower at $304.31
Front-month grain futures firmed Tuesday while Soybean futures continued to erode. Positive weather continues to apply pressure. As the week continues, traders will also be positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher to 8¢ higher in spot Jly. Soybean futures were 14¢ to 21¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed again Tuesday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 52 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 25 points.
Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 70¢ to 90¢ lower through the front six contracts.
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Continued strong heifer slaughter suggests that little, if any, heifer retention for herd rebuilding has begun, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. He notes this, along with longer feeding periods, are why average monthly feedlot inventories June 1 were the same year over year, and through the first half of this year, were only 2.2% less than peak levels in September of 2022.
“Supply fundamentals will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year and beyond,” Peel says. “Beef production will likely finish the year down 3.0-3.5% year over year, less than previously expected due to continued heavy carcass weights. Feedlot inventories and cattle slaughter will continue to decline, perhaps faster if heifer retention begins in a significant way. Barring outside shocks, cattle prices will remain at record levels and push even higher if herd rebuilding begins in the coming months.”
Peel notes mid-year cattle prices are at record-high levels.
“Fed steers averaged $195.81/cwt. (live basis) and 850-pound, Med/Large, No. 1 steers averaged $255.41/cwt. in Oklahoma auctions prior to July 4,” Peel says. “Likewise Boning cull cows, average dressing, averaged $143.22/cwt. with high-dressing Breaker cows averaging $154.41/cwt. Steers calves are priced slightly below the March seasonal peak but averaged $324.53/cwt. before July 4 for 475-pound Med/Large, No. 1 steers, down from the $350.85/cwt. March average.”