Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in Nebraska through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Early live sales traded steady to $2 higher than last week at $125/cwt. Dressed sales there last week were at $196-$202/cwt.
Trading in the Western Corn Belt was mostly inactive on very light demand. Last week, live sales traded from $124-$126/cwt. and dressed sales were at $196-$202/cwt.
In all other major trading regions, trading was at a standstill. Last week in the Texas Panhandle, live sales traded at $120/cwt. In Kansas, live sales were at $119-$120/cwt.
Live Cattle futures gained Monday, supported by higher prices forecast in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).
Live Cattle futures closed an average of 52¢ higher.
Feeder Cattle futures faltered with another session of higher Corn futures.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 70¢ lower.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.59 lower Monday afternoon at $275.00/cwt. Select was $1.36 higher at $258.77.
Grain futures closed higher, supported by the WASDE.
Corn futures closed 15¢ to 16¢ higher through new-crop contracts, and then mostly 11¢ to 12¢ higher.
Soybean futures closed mostly 18¢ to 20¢ higher.
Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Monday, reaching all-time highs, with second-quarter earnings reports due this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 126 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 31 points.
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) boosted expected fed cattle prices in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
Specifically, based on recent price strength, ERS forecast the annual average five-area direct fed steer price $2.20 higher than the previous month at $119.20/cwt. Average prices are projected at $120 in the third quarter, $123 in the fourth quarter and $127 in the first quarter of next year.
Beef production for this year was estimated to be the same as the previous month at 27.91 billion lbs., which would be 731 million lbs. more (+2.69%) than last year. Projected beef production next year of 27.33 billion lbs. would be 580 million lbs. less (-2.08%) than this year.
Total red meat and poultry production is forecast to be 107.14 billion lbs. this year, which would be 580 million lbs. more (+0.54%) than last year. Next year’s total red meat and poultry production is forecast at 107.19 billion lbs.
Corn production for 2021-22 was projected 175 million bu. higher than the previous month based on increased planted and harvested area. National average corn yield was unchanged at 179.5 bu./acre.
With supply rising more than use, ending stocks were projected 75 million bu. more than the previous month.
The season-average farm price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $5.60/bu.
Soybean production was projected at 4.4 billion bu., the same as last month with harvested area of 86.7 million acres unchanged, as well as forecast yield of 50.8 bu./acre. With offsetting changes in supply and use, ending stocks were unchanged at 135 million bu.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020-21 was forecast at $11.05/bu., down 20¢ from the previous month based on early-season sales at lower prices. The soybean meal price was projected at $395.00/short ton, down $10 from last month. The soybean oil price was forecast at 57.5¢/lb., down 1.5¢.
All wheat production was lowered 152 million bu. to 1,746 million. The forecast all wheat yield of 45.8 bu./acre was 4.9 bu. less than last month. Beginning stocks were reduced on the latest NASS Grain Stocks report.
Projected exports and feed and residual usage were lowered to 875 and 170 million bu., respectively, on the reduction in durum and other spring wheat supplies. These would be the smallest U.S. wheat exports since the 2015-16 marketing year. Projected 2021-22 ending stocks were reduced 105 million bu. to 665 million, the lowest since 2013-14.
The projected 2021-22 season-average farm price was raised 10¢/bu. to $6.60.