Cattle Current Daily—July 19, 2021

Cattle Current Daily—July 19, 2021

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Elsewhere, it was limited on light to moderate demand with too few transactions to trend.

For the week, live trade was generally steady in the Southern Plains at $120/cwt. and at $123 in Nebraska. It was unevenly steady in the western Corn Belt at $125.00-$125.50. There was no established dressed trade.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.93 lower Friday afternoon at $267.94/cwt. Select was 69¢ lower at $251.79/cwt.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week was 653,000 head, which was 78,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week.

Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 17.94 million head is 802,000 head more (+4.68%) than the same period last year.

Year-to-date estimated total beef production of 14.85 billion lbs. is 706.5 million lbs. more (+4.99%) than last year.

Cattle futures lost some ground Friday amid generally steady cash prices, lower outside markets and stronger Wheat futures.

That was despite front-month Lean Hog futures surging higher in response to news that African Swine Fever (ASF) was confirmed in Germany’s domestic swine population for the first time, by the National Reference Laboratory for African Swine Fever at the nation’s Friedrich-Loeffler Institute (FLI). The disease was confirmed in one sow at an organic farm and two pigs at a smallholdings farm, in districts near the border between Germany and Poland. The disease was confirmed in a wild boar in the same region last September.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.14 lower (72¢ to $1.75 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 68¢ lower (12¢ to 95¢ lower).

Grain futures closed mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 8¢ lower through new-crop contracts and then fractionally higher to 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 11¢ higher through Aug. ’22 and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Even though U.S. retail and food service sales increased 0.6% month to month in June — more than analysts expected — according to the U.S. Census Bureau, major U.S. financial indices faltered Friday, amid inflation worries and some likely profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 32 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 115 points. 

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USDA boosted expected average feeder steer prices by $5/cwt. for upcoming quarter, based on current price strength.

Specifically, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, USDA projects the average price of feeder steers (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) at $146/cwt. in the third quarter and $148 in the fourth quarter for an annual average of $142.13. Next year, prices are forecast to be $144 in the first quarter and $142 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $146.50 in 2022.

Earlier in the week, analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised expectations for fed steer prices, too. In the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, ERS forecast the average five-area fed steer price at $120/cwt. in the third quarter, $123 in the fourth quarter and $127 in the first quarter of next year.

“Based on Agricultural Marketing Service data — actual and estimated daily cattle slaughter — the percentage of heifer slaughter compared to that of steers for June 2021 was estimated 2.5% higher than a year ago. The estimated percentage of federally inspected cow slaughter to total slaughter for June 2021 was 0.5% higher than June 2020,” say ERS analysts.

Based on the U.S. Drought Monitor, ERS estimates approximately 34% of the nation’s cattle are in regions experiencing some level of drought.

“Pasture and range in much of the western and northern United States continue to be in very poor to poor conditions, which is likely affecting cow slaughter in regions where forage availability has become critical,” say ERS analysts. “However, to the extent that the increase in aggregate slaughter numbers is driven by higher expected cow numbers and that heifers have recently been a higher proportion of steer and heifer slaughter, average carcass weights are expected to be lower.”

2021-07-18T14:48:12-05:00

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