Cattle futures sagged lower Thursday with the week’s wobbly cash fed cattle trade, sharply lower outside markets and likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.
Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.47 lower.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand in the North to mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
So far this week, live FOB prices are unevenly steady in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt. and dressed delivered trades are $2 lower in Nebraska at $310/cwt.
Last week, live FOB prices were mostly $198 in the North with dressed delivered prices at $312 in the western Corn Belt.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.01 lower Thursday afternoon at $316.15/cwt. Select was $1.22 higher at $299.46/cwt.
Net U.S. beef export sales were 15,400 metric tons (mt) for the week ending July 11, according to USDA’s weekly export sales report. Volume was 85% more than the previous week and 11% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.
Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Thursday.
Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ lower with pressure likely including anemic export sales. Net U.S. corn exports were 19% less than the previous week and 10% less than the prior-four-week average.
Kansas City Wheat futures were narrowly mixed.
Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, with more rotation from tech stocks and apparent profit taking.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 533 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 43 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 125 points.
Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 29¢ to 58¢ lower through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) for the remainder of this year and next, in the July Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Projected prices increased $6 in the third quarter to $269/cwt. and $5 in the fourth quarter to $268. This year’s annual average price increased $3.54 to $258.50. Forecast prices increased by $4 in the first quarter of next year to $251 and by $4 for the annual 2025 average to $262.50.
“In the first half of 2024, forage conditions have generally improved from a year ago, corn prices are relatively less expensive, and the prospect for higher fed cattle prices this year have supported strong feeder cattle prices … the expected supply for feeder cattle available in second-half 2024 will remain tight, supporting elevated feeder cattle prices,” ERS analysts say.
As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS raised the expected five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to the previous month, projected prices increased $7 for the third quarter to $190/cwt. and $2 for the fourth quarter to $188, based on recent prices and expectations of firm fed cattle demand. The projected annual average price for this year increased by $2.85 to $186.86. Next year’s annual average price was projected $2 higher at $191 with an average of $188 in the first quarter.