Cattle Current Daily—July 3, 2019

Cattle Current Daily—July 3, 2019

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Tuesday afternoon.

Feeder Cattle futures continued to rebound, despite slightly higher Corn futures, and helping deferred Live Cattle.

Except for unchanged in Apr, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 higher.

Except for unchanged in spot Aug, Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 23¢ lower across the front half of the board to an average of 40¢ higher across the back half.

Wholesale beef values were firm on moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $220.47/cwt. Select was 35¢ higher at $195.99.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher, perhaps getting some support from crop conditions (see below).

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 10¢ lower though Jul. ’20 and then mostly 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Tuesday after spending most of the session sideways. Tech stocks provided support, countered by threats of more U.S. tariffs on EU imports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 69 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 17 points.

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Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher, perhaps getting some support from crop conditions.

For the week ending June 30, according to USDA most recent Crop Progress report,

56% of the corn crop was in Good or Excellent condition, which was 20% less than last year. 12% was in Poor or Very Poor condition, compared to 6% a year earlier. For this time of year, that’s second worst crop condition for corn since 1995; the worst was in excessively dry 2012.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 10¢ lower though Jul. ’20 and then mostly 5¢ lower, pressured by heavy supplies and the lack of trade progress and despite current crop condition also being the second worst since 1995.

54% of the soybean crop was rated in Good or Excellent condition, compared to 71% a year earlier. 11% was in Poor or Very Poor condition, which was 5% more than a year earlier.

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Agricultural producer sentiment rebounded in June with farmers expressing more optimism, according to the most recent Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The June barometer was 126, up 25 points from the previous month. It’s based on a mid-month survey of 400 agricultural producers across the U.S.

“This year, farmers faced an extremely wet planting season and uncertainty surrounding trade discussions, however, a crop price rally, coupled with USDA’s announcement of its 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP) and Congress’ passage of the Disaster Aid Bill, made farmers more optimistic,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “While this combination provided a boost to a struggling ag economy, it remains a challenging economic environment for farmers.” 

Both of the Ag Barometer’s sub-indices increased. The Index of Current Conditions rose 13 points from May, to a reading of 97. The Index of Future Expectations jumped 33 points, to a reading of 141 in June.

Given historic delays for corn and soybean planting, producers who planted either crop last year were asked whether the MFP announcement affected their decision to take a prevented planting payment this year. Ten percent of corn and soybean producers said the announcement did impact their prevented planting decision. One out of five farmers within that group said they intended to plant more corn, while one out of 10 farmers within that group said they intended to plant more soybeans, because of the MFP program.

Nearly one-third (32%) of corn/soybean farmers in the survey said they intended to take prevented planting payments on some of their corn acres. Of those who intend to take a prevented planting payment, just over half (51%) said they intend to take prevented planting on more than 15% of their intended corn acreage.

2019-07-02T19:34:39-06:00

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