Cattle futures were higher Monday, helped along by stronger outside markets.
Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.42 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.22 higher.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $3 lower in the Southern Plains at mainly $257/cwt., $1-$8 lower in Nebraska at mostly $257 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $256-$258. Dressed delivered prices were $405, which was $3-$5 lower in Nebraska and $5 lower in the western Corn Belt.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.36 higher Monday afternoon at $392.83/cwt. Select was 9¢ lower at $383.09.
Grain and Soybean futures limped lower Monday.
Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks and despite higher Crude Oil prices tied to increased turmoil in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 46 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 19 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 114 points
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As folks ponder the shape and timing of beef cow herd expansion, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says the combination of heifer and cow slaughter is the key indicator.
“The female slaughter percentage peaked most recently in 2023 at 51.8% (the highest level since 1985) and has decreased to the current level of 48.8%,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “Female cattle slaughter is still above the average level. Most of the decrease observed thus far in the female slaughter percentage is due to decreased beef cow slaughter. Further decreases will depend on increased heifer retention (i.e. reduced heifer slaughter).”
More specifically, Peel says 47% female slaughter is commonly regarded as the threshold for herd expansion. He believes it could take another 6-10 months for female slaughter to decline to that level.
“The initial stages of this process mean that cattle slaughter and beef production will continue to decline and that the highest cattle prices of this cycle are still ahead,” Peel says.