Cattle futures softened further Monday. Aside from taking a pause and potentially profits from last week’s up-move in Feeder Cattle, and steady money for fed cattle, perhaps traders also were wondering about the floor for recently lower wholesale beef prices. As much as anything, though, bearish outside markets, tied to the failure of Silcon Valley Bank and worries about wider repercussions cast a pall over equity and commodity markets.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 53¢ lower (32¢ to $1.17 lower).
Live Cattle futures closed an average of 41¢ lower.
Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then 3¢ higher.
KC HRW Wheat closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher.
Soybean futures closed 13¢ to 18¢ lower through Aug ‘24 and then mostly 7¢ lower.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, live prices were steady at $165/cwt., except for $1 lower to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $164-$167. Dressed prices were steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $265 and steady in Nebraska at $265.
The five-area direct weighted average steer price last week was 38¢ higher at $165.40/cwt. The weighted average steer price in the beef was 89¢ higher at $265.32.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 5¢ lower Monday afternoon at $284.86/cwt. Select was $2.08 higher at $273.62/cwt.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed after a volatile session Monday as investors continued to assess fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVP).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 90 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 49 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.76 to $1.88 lower through the front six contracts.
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Nationwide, steers sold $2-$6/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Heifers traded $1-$4 higher in the North Central and South Central regions, except for $1 lower in the South Central region for heifers at 800 lbs. Heifers in the Southeast sold $7-$10 higher.
First-quarter cattle prices are higher than originally forecast by the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), but those analysts caution there could be some correction depending on how weather and forage develop heading into spring.
In the latest Livestock Monitor, LMIC analysts note steers weighing 500-600 lbs. last week sold for $250/cwt. in Montana, $242 in South Dakota and at a combined auction average of $226 in Texas, the highest price of the year.
“These auction prices, by our estimation, are very high, given the spring forage situation is very much unknown, and hay is expensive,” LMIC analysts say. “The big concern in the short term is how spring shapes up. Will all of the country have great early grass growth? Are these buyers able to source and feed reasonably priced feedstuffs until grass shows up? The outlook for the spring contains the probability that La Niña may not withdraw until summer, which may point to a cool wet spring in the Northern Plains and continued dryness in the Southern Plains.”
At the same time, LMIC analysts point out Dec corn futures prices are significantly lower than current cash prices.