Cattle futures trended lower Monday with pressure including more bearish outside markets and the strong rebound in Corn futures.
Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 89¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.43 lower (10¢ lower in spot May to $3.10 lower).
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $260/cwt., mostly steady to $4 higher in Kansas and mainly $260, and steady to $5 higher in the North at $260-$265. Dressed delivered prices were $8-$13 higher in Nebraska at $410-$415 and mostly $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $410.
Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $4.33 higher at $262.85/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $8.57 higher at $411.07.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.89 higher Monday afternoon at $392.14/cwt. Select was 98¢ higher at $390.23.
Grain and Soybean futures were higher Monday, boosted by details released by the White House, regarding last week’s U.S.-China trade talks. According to the White House Fact Sheet:
- China will purchase at least $17 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028, in addition to the soybean purchase commitments that it made in October 2025.
- China restored market access for U.S. beef by renewing expired listings of more than 400 U.S. beef facilities and adding new listings. China will work with U.S. regulators to lift all suspensions of U.S. beef facilities.
- China resumed imports of poultry from U.S. states determined by the USDA to be free of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 16¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 17¢ to 21¢ higher. Soybean futures were 29¢ to 35¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with pressure led by continued tech-stock selling.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 159 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 134 points.
Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 35¢ to $1.01 higher through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) boosted expected feeder steer prices for the remainder of this year, in the May Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, based on recent data and tight calf supplies.
Compared to the previous month, projected prices for Medium and Large #1 steers selling at Oklahoma City, increased $13 in the third quarter to $380/cwt. and $15 in the fourth quarter to $384. The annual average price increased $10 to $377.22.
“Cattle prices in 2027 are expected to be modestly higher than the records currently forecast for 2026,” ERS analysts say. “This is based on a smaller anticipated calf crop in 2026 and more heifers retained for breeding to further tighten supplies available for placement in feedlots and for slaughter in 2027. The forecast for feeder steers weighing 750–800 pounds at the Oklahoma National Stockyards is $382/cwt, a 1% increase from 2026.”
With potential herd expansion in mind, based on inventories at the beginning of this year, ERS analysts explain the National Agricultural Statistics Service estimated that producers retained more heifers for their breeding herds year over year.
“An overall small calf crop and increased heifer retention for breeding will further constrict calf supplies available for placement in feedlots in late 2026 and the first half of 2027. This supports fewer feedlot cattle marketed for slaughter in 2027,” ERS analysts say. “In 2027, cow slaughter is also expected to decline as producers are anticipated to favor beef cow retention over culling from historically low beef cow inventories. This situation also supports a lower beef production forecast in 2027.”
On the other hand, those analysts note current pastureland conditions are the worst and the most widespread since the last drought period in 2021–22, which may limit expansion potential.