Cash fed cattle trade ended the week at $114-$115/cwt. in the Southern Plains, which was mainly $2 higher in Kansas and $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle. In Nebraska, live trade was unevenly steady at $114-$116. Prices in the western Corn Belt were $1-$2 higher at $114-$115. Dressed trade was $1-$2 higher at $181-$182.
Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed to marginally higher with positive Live Cattle fundamentals tempered by the more price-positive outlook for corn prices (see World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates below).
Except for 20¢ lower in the back contract, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 19¢ higher.
Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed (27¢ lower to 22¢ higher).
Wholesale beef values were higher on Choice and steady on Select with moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 83¢ higher Friday afternoon at $239.12/cwt. Select was 24¢ higher at $213.26.
Corn futures closed 2¢ higher through Jly ’20 and then mostly 1¢ higher.
Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ Lower.
Major U.S. financial indices edged higher on Friday, with continued optimism regarding progress in U.S.-China trade talks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 6 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 40 points.
Forecast total red meat and poultry production for this year increased by 257 million lbs. to 105.02 billion lbs. (+0.25%) in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) issued Friday.
Projected beef production increased 88 million lbs. to 27.04 billion lbs. (+0.32%) on higher expected slaughter of fed cattle and non-fed cattle.
The expected average fed steer price (5-area direct) for this year increased 50¢ from the previous month to $116/cwt., based on recent price strength. Fourth-quarter price is projected at $112.
Forecast total red meat and poultry production for next year increased by 45 million lbs. to 107.46 billion lbs., with increased broiler and turkey production offsetting lower anticipated beef production. That would be 2.44 billion lbs. (+2.32%) more than this year.
Total projected beef production for next year was lowered by 120 million lbs. (-0.43%) on a slower expected pace of gains in carcass weights. That would be 514 million lbs. (+1.90%) more than this year.
The annual fed steer price for next year is projected at $116, with the first-quarter price at $120 and the second-quarter price at $117.
WASDE increased the season-average corn price by 5¢ to $3.85/bu., based on current prices.
This month’s 2019-20 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks.
Corn production is forecast at 13.66 billion bu., down 118 million from last month with reduced yield of 1.4 bu. to 167.0 bu./acre. Corn ending stocks are lowered 18 million bu.
The U.S. soybean outlook is for slightly lower production of 3.55 billion bu., down less than 1 million bu. from the previous month, on fractionally lower yields and unchanged harvested area. But, ending stocks were projected higher on reduced crush.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019-20 is forecast at $9/bu., unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price forecast is also unchanged at $325/short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at 31¢/lb., up 1¢ from last month, on sharply higher reported prices through October.
The outlook for 2019-20 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks. Projected wheat supplies were lowered by 42 million bu., based on updated production estimates for the states resurveyed following the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30.
The season-average farm price was reduced 10¢/bu. to $4.60, based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of the 2019-20 marketing year.