Cattle futures closed sharply lower Friday, pressured by lower cash prices, lower wholesale beef values and the Goldman role.
Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.38 lower. Week to week on Friday, they ranged from an average of $1.31 lower in the front four contracts to an average of 93¢ higher.
Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.33 lower Friday. Week to week, they were an average of $1.28 lower, except for an average of 20¢ higher in the back two contracts.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska to light on light demand in other major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
FOB live prices were $3 lower in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt. and $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $186-$188. Although too few to trend, there were some early trades in the western Corn Belt at $185-$186, where prices the previous week were $190.
Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.53 lower Friday afternoon at $307.93/cwt. Select was 53¢ lower at $279.19.
Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.41 lower at $307.93/cwt. Select was $5.84 lower at $279.19. Over the past two weeks, Choice was down $14.31 and Select was $15.89 lower.
Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 619,000 head was 4,000 head more than the previous week but 4,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 27 million head was 1 million head fewer (-3.7%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 22.9 billion pounds was 117.5 million pounds less (-0.5%).
Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed.
Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher through Jan ’26 and then mainly fractionally lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 259 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 22 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 17 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.45 to $1.98 lower through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year and next, in the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). That was based on recent prices and the continued strength in beef demand.
Compared to the previous month’s projections, forecast prices increased $2 in the fourth quarter of this year to $188/cwt. with this year’s annual average price up 50¢ at $186.68. The ERS projected prices in the first three quarters of 2025 $1 higher at $188, $187 and $186, respectively. The forecast 2025 average price also rose $1 to $188.
Increased prices came with expectations for increased beef production.
Compared to the previous month, projected beef production for this year rose by 25 million pounds to 27.02 billion pounds. Beef production increased with higher dressed weights and cow slaughter more than offsetting lower expected steer and heifer slaughter.
Forecast beef production for 2025 of 26.3 billion pounds was 355 million pounds more (+1.4%) than the previous month’s estimate. It would be 745 million pounds less (-2.8%) than this year’s projected production. Estimated beef production rose on heavier expected dressed weights and higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially stemming from higher-than-previously-expected placements during the second half of 2024.