Cattle Current Daily-Nov. 16, 2018

Cattle Current Daily-Nov. 16, 2018

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Thursday afternoon.

Cattle futures gained a little ground, with some attributing part of the strength to rumors that Japan will remove its age restriction on U.S. beef—implemented in the wake of BSE discovered here in 2003.

Other than 20¢ lower in the back contract, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 27¢ higher.

Other than 35¢ lower in expiring Nov, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 85¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were firm on moderate to good demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 39¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $213.55/cwt. Select was 40¢ higher at $197.58.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, buoyed by tech stocks and reports that the U.S. and China were inching closer on trade talks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 208 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 28 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 122 points.

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The estimated number of cattle outside feedlots Oct. 1—cattle available to place on feed— was 30.1 million head, just 0.6% more than a year earlier, according to the most recent monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“Winter forage seems to be in better condition than last year, which could provide a home for these calves to stock over the winter. While this may be a positive sign for feeder calf prices in the coming months, limiting factors are the record numbers of cattle already on feed at the beginning of October and expectations of higher feed prices,” say analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). “In addition, cattle are staying on feed longer than last year.”

The estimated percentage of cattle on feed for more than 150 days in October was around 17%, which was approximately 3% more than last year; slightly above the average for 2013-2017, but less than in 2016.

“The higher number of cattle already in feedlots may limit the competition from feedlots for ownership of these calves, and higher feed prices may limit feedlot management’s willingness to pay higher prices for calves,” say ERS analysts.

ERS left the projected fourth-quarter feeder steer price unchanged from the previous month at $151-$155/cwt. The 2019 annual price forecast was lowered to $140-$151 on slightly higher anticipated feed costs and continued large feedlot numbers.

2018-11-15T19:12:09-05:00

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