Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.16 higher on Friday, leading the complex higher. Week to week on Friday, they closed an average of $5.58 higher, buoyed by lower Corn futures and strong cash demand in the country with added support from recent rains in wheat pasture country.
Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher, except for unchanged in spot Dec. Week to week on Friday, they closed an average of $1.39 higher, except for an average of 40¢ lower in the front two contracts.
That was despite weaker negotiated cash fed cattle prices.
For the week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt., which was $2 lower in the Southern Plains, $1-$2 lower in Nebraska and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $4 lower at $290.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 46¢ lower Friday afternoon at $303.34/cwt. Select was 52¢ lower at $276.14.
Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 606,000 head was 13,000 head fewer than the previous week and 33,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 27.6 million head was 1.1 million head fewer (-3.7%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 23.4 billion pounds was 125.7 million pounds less (-0.5%).
Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday on likely corrective buying.
Corn futures closed 2¢ to 5¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Friday as investors appeared to grow skittish about the path of interest rate cuts and potential policy shifts with the new administration.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 305 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 78 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 427 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.39 to $1.68 lower through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) bumped this year’s forecast annual feeder steer price slightly higher, and next year’s annual average price slightly lower in the November Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.
For feeder steers weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City, ERS projected prices $1 higher in the fourth quarter at $254/cwt. for annual average price of $250.84, which was 25¢ more than the previous month’s estimate.
“Weekly cattle prices have rebounded from September’s relative lows to establish new highs for October and November,” according to ERS analysts. “They are forecast to continue elevated through 2025, reflecting recent price data and changes to the timing of cattle placements and marketings.”
For 2025, ERS left projected feeder steer prices steady in the first quarter at $248. Forecast prices increased $3 in the second quarter to $257 but decreased $3 in the third quarter to $260 for an annual average price of $258, which was 75¢ less than the prior month’s estimate.
“Earlier this year, it was expected that the number of cattle on feed would shrink year over year in the second half of 2024, based on smaller inventory levels at the beginning of the year, and that year-over-year higher calf prices would result in retention of heifers, limiting numbers in the
Feedlot,” ERS analysts explain. “However, the USDA October Cattle on Feed report estimated the Oct. 1 feedlot inventory at 11.6 million head, nearly flat from the same month last year. Feedlot net placements in September were 2% lower year over year at 2.1 million head. Placements more than offset marketings in September, which registered 1.7 million head, up 2% year over year. As a result, the number of cattle on feed on Oct. 1 has been relatively flat since 2021 despite declining cattle inventories since 2019.”
Combined with fewer year-over-year marketings, they note the number of cattle on feed for more than 150 days is higher year over year.