Cattle futures started Friday’s session lower with traders apparently taking some profits from the week’s bullish gains. Then cash fed cattle trade erupted with significantly higher prices and futures were off to the races again.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.45 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.96 higher.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in North to mostly inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Based on the last established trades reported for the week, FOB live prices were $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $234-$235/cwt. and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $232-$235. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $362. There were also some dressed delivered trades in the Western Corn Belt at $362, but too few to trend; price the previous week was $360.
FOB live prices in the Southern Plains the previous week were $232-$233.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 35¢ higher Friday afternoon at $365.57/cwt. Select was $2.06 higher at $346.39.
Soybean futures sank Friday in response to heightened trade tensions between China and the U.S. cast further doubt about a resolution between the two countries, which might lead to increased pressure on U.S. agricultural commodity exports.
Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 15¢ lower. Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Jly ’26 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 6¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday after U.S. President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on China in retaliation for that nation’s increased restrictions on its rare earth mineral exports.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 878 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 182 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 820 points.
Oil futures also sank in response to the U.S.-China standoff. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.27 to $2.61 lower through the front six contracts.
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Pasture and range conditions across wide swaths of cattle country continue to provide one of the necessary ingredients for beef cow herd expansion.
Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) point to the latest available USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending Sept 28, which rated 32% of the nation’s pasture and range in Good or Excellent condition, which was 6% more than a year earlier. On the other side of the scale, 35% was rated as Poor or Very Poor which was 8% less than a year earlier.
“In the Southern Plains, current conditions are among the best observed in the past decade, with the share of Poor and Very Poor acres down 19.5% from the same week last year,” LMIC analysts explain, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The Great Plains have not fared quite as well, though major improvements since early summer have brought conditions back close to the 10-year average, with poor and very poor ratings down 11.4% year over year.”
Feed costs are also lower. Hay prices in August averaged $158 per ton, down 4.8% year over year and 36% less than the peak in August 2022, according to LMIC.
Moreover, LMIC analysts say Grass-Cast forecasts indicate aboveground net primary production (ANPP) of grasslands through 2025 should remain positive relative to the 36-year average.
“The Southern Plains, along with parts of northwest South Dakota, southwest North Dakota and southeast Montana are expected to see growth exceeding 15%,” LMIC analysts say. “Most other areas of the Great Plains are forecast to remain near the long-term average, though some northern regions could experience declines of 5% to 15%.”