Negotiated cash fed cattle prices ended last week generally steady to $1 higher. FOB live prices were generally $186-$187/cwt. in Kansas, $187 in the Texas Panhandle and $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $296.
Cattle futures closed mixed on Friday but higher week to week. Live Cattle futures were an average of 25¢ lower, except for unchanged in away Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 48¢ higher (5¢ to $1.05 higher), except for an average of 34¢ lower in the front two contracts.
Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.03 higher (25¢ to $1.70 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.69 higher (7¢ to $4.60 higher).
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.27 higher Friday afternoon at $311.12/cwt. Select was $2.01 lower at $288.72. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $8.64 higher and Select was $1.11 higher.
Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 586,000 head was 25,000 head fewer than the previous week and 30,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 24.5 million head was 975,000 head fewer (-3.8%). Year-to-date beef production of 20.7 billion pounds was 152.7 million pounds less (-0.7%).
Turning to crops, Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday, lacking support from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).
Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 11¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indexes closed higher Friday, boosted by bank stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 409 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 60 points.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 11¢ to 29¢ lower through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the expected five-area average direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year and the beginning of next year, in the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). That was based on prices in September and expectations of continued strong demand for fed cattle.
Compared to the previous month’s projection the ERS increased the five-area price by $1.26 in the third quarter to $189.26 and by $3 in the fourth quarter to $186 for an annual average price of $186.18, which was $1.07 higher.
Projected prices for next year increased by $1 in the first quarter to $187. The projected annual 2025 price also increased by $1 to $187.
Compared to the previous month, the ERS increased expected beef production for this year by 205 million pounds to 27 billion pounds, which would be slightly more than last year. Next year’s projected beef production of 25.9 billion pounds would be 1.1 billion pounds less than this year’s estimated production (-4%).
Among other WASDE highlights…
Corn
Corn production for 2024/25was forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 17 million from the previous month on an increase of 0.2 bushels in yield to 183.8 bushels per acre. Total use was raised slightly to 15.0 billion bushels reflecting greater exports. With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks were cut 58 million bushels to 2.0 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Soybeans
2024/25 U.S. soybean production was forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, down 4 million on a projected 0.1-bushel decline in yield to 53.1 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks, supplies were lowered 2.0 million bushels to 4.9 billion. Ending stocks were unchanged from the previous month at 550 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 was unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices also were unchanged at $320 per short ton and 42¢ per pound, respectively.
Wheat
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat was for reduced supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected ending stocks were lowered by 16 million bushels to 812 million, which still would be 17% more than the previous year. The season average farm price was unchanged at $5.70 per bushel.