Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in Nebraska and the Western Corn Belt through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few live sales at $122/cwt., however not enough in either region for a full market trend. Trading was at a standstill in the Southern Plains.
Live prices last week were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $124/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $123-$124, $2 lower in Nebraska at $122 and steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $122-$123. Dressed prices were $2 lower in Nebraska at $196 and steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $192-$196.
Cattle futures ended the week mixed as traders continued to position for the new month. Conditions remain as oversold as buyer interest is limited.
Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed from an average of 66¢ lower in four contracts (7¢ to $1.95 lower) to an average of 57¢ higher (20¢ to $1.95 higher).
Live Cattle futures closed mixed, an average of 38¢ lower through the front four contracts to an average of 21¢ higher in the back four contracts.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.62 lower at $292.36/cwt. Select was $4.48 lower at $264.84/cwt.
Corn futures closed mostly 6¢ to 9¢ higher.
Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 9¢ lower in the front four contracts, 3¢ to 5¢ lower through Jan ’23 and then mostly 1¢ lower to fractionally higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices gained some lost ground on Friday, closing higher after a run of down days. Part of the market optimism came from Merck’s announcement of promising trial data for a pill that could be a game changer for treatment of Covid-19. Friday the Labor Department reported improvement in the jobs market – payrolls increased by about 500,000 in September, almost twice that of August. The unemployment rate is forecast at 5.1% compared to 5.2% a month earlier.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 483 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 50 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 118 points.
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Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University (K-State) shared price forecasts from the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) during last week’s K-State Beef Stocker Field Day.
In his Beef Cattle Outlook, according to Tonsor, LMIC sees steer calves (basis 500-600 lbs., the Southern Plains) averaging $175-$178/cwt. next year with average prices at $167-$170 in the first quarter, $172-$176 in the second, $179-$189 in the third and $177-$187 in the fourth quarter. The annual average price in 2023 is projected at $193-$203.
For feeder steers (basis 700-800 lbs., Southern Plains) LMIC projects next year’s annual average price at $156-$160, with average prices at $153-$156 in the first quarter, $154-$159 in the second, $157-$167 in the third and $155-$165 in the fourth quarter. The annual average price in 2023 is projected at $170-$180.
LMIC projects the 2022 average fed steer price (five-area direct) at $128-$130 with average prices at $127-$130 in the first quarter, $132-$136 in the second, $122-$130 in the third and $126-$134 in the fourth quarter. The annual average price in 2023 is projected at $134-$144.