Negotiated cash fed cattle prices in Kansas on Thursday were steady to $2 higher at $107-$108/cwt., according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although there were too few transactions to trend, there was some live trade in Nebraska at $108, which was mainly $1 higher than last week. A day earlier, dressed trade started the week $1-$2 higher at $169, but too few to trend.
Cattle futures, especially Feeder Cattle softened Thursday, perhaps with some defensiveness ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of 74¢ lower (37¢ to $1.00 lower).
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.40 lower, from 45¢ lower in spot Oct to $1.75 lower at the back.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 88¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $216.00/cwt. Select was $2.48 lower at $203.10.
Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ lower.
Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ and 6¢ lower.
Major U.S. financial indices extended gains Thursday, buoyed by continued optimism about another round of economic stimulus sooner than later.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 122 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 56 points.
The Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) projects cattle prices to rebound next year and in 2022, based in part on expectations that beef production will peak this year.
Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University (KSU) offered LMIC price projections as part of his Market Outlook at the recent KSU Beef Stocker Field Day. Prices that follow are basis the Southern Plains.
500-600 pound steer calves: $156-$158/cwt. (fourth quarter); $163-$168 (first-quarter 2021); $169-$175 (second quarter); $167-$171 for the year. For 2022, the annual estimate is $175-$185.
700-800 pound feeder steer: $141-$144/cwt. (fourth quarter); $141-$145 (first-quarter 2021); $142-$148 (second quarter); $148-$152 for the year. For 2022, the annual estimate is $152-$162.
Five-area fed steer: $108-$110/cwt. (fourth quarter); $113-$118 (first-quarter 2021); $116-$122 (second quarter); $117-$120 for the year. For 2022, the annual estimate is $119-$129.
“In the event the macroeconomic environment improves beyond what’s built into these forecasts, I could build an argument for better prices yet,” Tonsor says. “I think there are reasons for optimism that global demand will rebound, but that will hinge on global economic conditions and geopolitical relations.”
You can watch Tonsor’s presentation Here.