Cattle Current Daily—Sept. 14, 2020

Cattle Current Daily—Sept. 14, 2020

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices in the Texas Panhandle through Friday afternoon were mostly $1 higher than earlier in the week at $102/cwt., which was $1 lower than last week, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Cattle futures edged higher Friday, supported by resurgent Lean Hog futures, tied to South Korea banning pork exports from Germany after a wild boar carcass in that European nation tested positive for African Swine Fever.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 34¢ higher (7¢ to 47¢ higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ higher (7¢ to 97¢ higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 94¢ lower Friday afternoon at $219.89/cwt. Select was 22¢ lower at $207.10.

Corn and soybean futures gained some lift from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below), with soybeans receiving added support from recently strong export sales.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ higher through May ’21 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they closed an average of 11¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 20¢ higher through the front four contracts and then 6¢ to 12¢ higher across the next three; mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower the rest of the way. Week to week on Friday, they closed an average of 25¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday, with continued pressure from the selloff in big tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 131 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ closed 66 points lower.

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USDA increased expected beef production for this year by 20 million lbs. to 27.05 billion lbs., in September’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), compared to the previous month’s estimate. That’s based on increased expected slaughter in the second half of 2019. The total would be 107 million lbs. less than last year. Estimated beef production is forecast at 27.36 billion lbs. next year, which would be 307 million lbs. more (+1.14%) than this year.

The projected annual average fed steer price (five-area direct) for this year is $107.30/cwt., which would be $9.48 less than last year. ERS analysts increased the forecast annual price next year by $2 to $112, compared to the previous month’s projection, based on expected lower production. More immediately, the WASDE pegs the average third-quarter price this year at $101, followed by an average of $104 in the fourth quarter and $107 in the first quarter of 2021.

Estimated total red meat and poultry production for this year was lowered from the previous month, with lower forecast pork and broiler production more than offsetting higher beef and turkey production.

Total red meat and poultry production is estimated at 106.30 billion lbs. this year, which would be 1.03 billion lbs. more (+0.98%) than in 2019. Next year’s total red meat and poultry production is forecast at 107.35 billion lbs., which would be 1.05 billion lbs. more than this year.

Corn

Corn production for grain is projected 2% less than the previous month at 14.9 billion bu. That’s 378 million bu. less, based on reducing harvested corn acres by 550,000 acres, due to the late-summer derecho, according to the latest Crop Production report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Estimated production would still be 9% more than last year.

Although 3.3 bu./acre less than the previous moth’s projection, forecast yield of 178.5 bu./harvested acre would be record large and 11.1 bu./acre more than last year. That’s based on conditions as of Sept. 1

With a smaller crop more than offsetting increased beginning stocks–mostly due to lower estimated exports for 2019-20–WASDE reduced projected ending stocks by 253 million bu. and increased the season-average corn price by 40¢ to $3.50/bu.

Soybeans

Soybean production for beans was forecast at 4.31 billion bu., down 3% from the previous forecast, but up 21% from last year, according to the Crop Production report. Expected average yield is a record high 51.9 bu./harvested acre, down 1.4 bu. from the previous forecast but 4.5 bu. more than in 2019. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast and 11% more than last year.

The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $9.25/bu., up 90¢ from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $315 per short ton, up $25 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is 32.0¢/lb., up 2¢.

Wheat

The 2020-21 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook was unchanged in the latest WASDE. The projected season-average farm price remains at $4.50/bu.

2020-09-12T15:52:16-05:00

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